AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
714 PM CDT MON JUN 17 2013
.DISCUSSION...
AFTER COORD WITH SPC HAVE INCLUDED REEVES COUNTY AND REMAINDER OF
THE PB IN THE SEVERE TSTM WATCH #323. ALSO HAVE INCREASED POPS
BASED ON LATEST RADAR.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 646 PM CDT MON JUN 17 2013/
DISCUSSION...
PLEASE SEE THE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
AVIATION...
SEVERE WEATHER ONGOING ACROSS THE AREA EXTENDING FROM NORTHERN LEA
COUNTY...ACROSS THE UPPER TRANS PECOS...AND INTO SOUTHWEST TEXAS.
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE AT TAF LOCATIONS UNTIL AFTER
06Z. MVFR CONDITIONS DUE TO LIMITED VISIBILITY IN AND NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. WIND
GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 35 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE IN AND NEAR THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH 06Z.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 410 PM CDT MON JUN 17 2013/
DISCUSSION...
SEVERE TSTM WATCH #323 HAS BEEN ISSUED UNTIL 04Z FOR SE NM AND
ALL OF THE PB NORTH OF I-20. NO CHANGE FROM DISCUSSION BELOW.
ADDITIONAL PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 211 PM CDT MON JUN 17 2013/
DISCUSSION...
SFC BOUNDARY NW-SE ACROSS THE PB WILL BE A PRIMARY FOCUS FOR DEEP
CONVECTION TO FORM ALONG/NEAR TODAY. LOW LEVEL MSTR IS RICH (DWPNTS OF
M60S ACROSS PB) AND WITH STEEP MID LEVEL LR/S PER EML SB CAPES ARE
ABOVE 2500 J/KG. LOW LEVEL MSTR IS CONVERGING INVOF WRN PB/SE NM
AND ONCE TEMPS GET INTO THE M90S CAP IS EXPECTED BREAK ALLOWING
STORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE PB. ALSO A MINOR SHRTWV TROF ROUNDING
NW MID LEVEL FLOW MAY SERVE TO COOL TEMPS AROUND 5H AND PROVIDE
ADDITIVE LIFT. 12Z NAM12 QPF AGREES WITH AND HAS DEVELOPED PRECIP
FARTHER S INTO THE PB AS EARLY AS 21Z (INDICATIVE OF WEAK TO NO
CAP). SAID CAPES AND BULK SHEAR OF 25-35KTS ACROSS PB WILL BE
SUFFICIENT FOR SEVERE STORMS AND HAVE INCLUDE FOR PB AND TRANS
PECOS. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND ARE THE MAIN CONCERN BUT AN ISOLD
TORNADO CAN/T BE RULED EITHER. MEANWHILE A CONVECTIVE COMPLEX IS
FAVORED TO COME OUT THE NE NM HIGHLANDS INTO WX TX PLAINS AND MAY
RESULT IN SECOND ROUND OF TSTMS EARLY TUE AM ACRS THE NRN CWFA.
ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS IS POSSIBLE TUE PM IN PERSISTENT NW MID
LEVEL FLOW. THESE STORM WOULD BE FAVORED TO MOVE THRU THE N-NE
CWFA LATE TUE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AND AGAIN COULD BE
SEVERE. HOWEVER IF THERE IS A SECOND ROUND OF STORMS EARLY TUE AM
ACROSS THE N-NE IT MAY BE DIFFICULT FOR THE ATMOSPHERE TO RECOVER.
SLGHT CHC TO CHC TSTMS WILL BE FAVORED IN THE DAVIS MTNS
REGARDLESS TUE PM. TIMING OF CONVECTION TUE WILL MAKE TEMPS FCST
DIFFICULT AND WILL TREND TEMPS DOWN JUST A DEGREE OR 2 FOR NOW.
STRONGER PRESENCE OF MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL SIGNAL DOWNTURN IN POPS
AND THOSE BEING CONFINED TO THE W ON WRN SIDE OF RIDGE FOR
WED/THUR. PRESENCE OF MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL ALSO SIGNAL WARMER WITH
HIGHS TEMPS EASILY BACK TO 95-100 ACROSS PB. SOME HINTS THAT MID
LEVEL RIDGE WILL DEVELOP FAR E FRI-SUN WHICH WOULD LEAD TO A
LITTLE COOLER TEMPS AND LOW PROBABILITY POPS BACK INTO THE WRN
AREAS WITH ECMWF EVEN MORESO FOR MONDAY.
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
