Cooler weather pattern takes hold in the Northeast to open April...
After a very mild few weeks in the Northeast, cooler weather and a little taste of winter are headed towards some viewers. While the snow will be short-lived, long term prognostics indicate a potentially cool beginning of April for those in the east.
"Afternoon Thoughts" (Updated 3/29)
The 2010 award winning Sundance Film Festival's "Waiting for Superman" highlights critical flaws in today's public education system. The premise behind the film highlights the struggles of parents and students in Harlem in the fight against the poor public schools in the city. Families have the option to chose charter schools as an alternative education, but the competition is fierce especially for schools such as Harlem Success Academy. In fact to receive admissions into these charter schools, one is entered in a random lottery where odds are often very slim. A similar documentary, "The Lottery," provides a another storyline again highlighting the issues in public schools particularily in highly urbanized areas. Through evidence such as Michelle Ree's attempt to evaluate and reform the Washington DC public school system, the movies take a critical approach without posing direct blame on any one factor.
Both documentaries highlight charter schools as a superior alternative to public schools. They also indicate that it is not the students fault for failing federal test guidelines, but instead the adult bureaucracy whom many of which have no experience in the classroom. The failing scores of American students against other foreign countries shows there are clear differences.
A 2011 Wall Street Journal Article (Link) by Stephanie Banchero poses a possible model solution to better equip students in a failing public school system. The solution is simple; provide a strong and healthier adult-student relationship in the schools. Current theologies in many schools value just making sure the student passes (partly due to the dreadful No Child Left Behind Act) without any concern for the value of his/her education. I have personally had educators mention that their only goal is to see us (the students) walk across that graduation stage. By providing strong bonding relationships in the school itself, not only is a mentor-like figure provided, but someone to whom the student is accountable especially if parental figures show no particular support or interest.
Boundaries need to be broken in public education, and the entire current system is in desparate need of reform. Both documentaries listed above providing a quick, but shocking glimpse at many of the problems. While they provide limited solutions, they more importantly highlight the problem.
The purpose of educated students is to prepare them to be hard-working and decent citizens. Instead present curriculums seek the easiest methods to solve a problem. Students need to be challenged and better prepared not only through increased academic work, but also in moral code. And along with providing a closer staff-student bond, these factors can be reached.
"Regional Radar"
(Courtesy of NOAA)
"Regional Satellite"
(Courtesy of Penn State Meteo.)
"Regional Advisories"
(Courtesy of NOAA)
"Weekly Forecast" (Updated 3/29)
Friday- A weak trough centered over the Northeast will begin to lift northward as warm air advection filters in from the southwest. Sunshine will likely start the day for many areas after a cold morning courtesy of radiational cooling. A heavy frost/freeze is likely for areas as far south as central and northern Maryland. Increasing cirrus ahead of the next advancing shortwave will give way to a mostly cloudy afternoon and evening with temperatures rounding up in the middle 50s for the Middle Atlantic. But a thermal boundary over the southern tiers will maintain a cooler profile for New England with H85s below 0C from the I-90 on northward. Friday night will feature an advancing QPF shield from the Ohio Valley into western areas with lows dipping to near freezing from I-80 on northward.
Saturday- Overnight Friday and into Saturday early afternoon will feature the bulk of QPF as a weak shortwave advancing in a due west to east manner. Current global guidance generally indicates a surface low track over Pennsylvania and New Jersey. The GFS and GGEM remain on the northern limits with the NAM and ECMWF a bit further south. QPF will generally be less than .6in for most all areas and limited to a narrow 100mi or so zone. Given the antecedent cooler air mass in place over New England, boundary layer temperatures will be at or below freezing from the southern tiers to I-90. This axis stretching east into Connecticut will see the potential for a light wet snow event. H85s will be around -1 to -3C with 1000-500mb thicknesses below the central 540dm threshold. Poor dendritic snow growth and limited Omega will limit snow rates to at or below .5in/hr at the height of the event. Ground temperatures will also be another limiting factor with accumulations generally limited to grassy surfaces. The highest accumulations will be across the higher elevations in the Catskills particularily above 1200ft with possible peak amounts at 6in on a stray peak. A snow map has been posted below, but I may have been a bit generous with amounts given the marginal setup. Rain is expected elsewhere south across Maryland, Pennsylvania, and New Jersey. A strong confluent flow over New England an associated 1020mb anticyclone will maintain dry conditions north of I-90.
Sunday- By Sunday morning any lingering clouds will begin to clear as the northwest confluent flow begins to wane as warm air advection and increasing 850mb thermals begin to dominate. A warm front will attempt to lift northward in the Ohio Valley under the southwest flow. Temperatures will soar in the 60s for areas south of I-80. Latest GFS/NAM/ECMWF guidance indicates a back door cold front for Sunday across the Northeast along with a developing 1008mb anticyclone over Nova Scotia. This may prevent and limit the extent of the warmth ahead of the next cold front approaching from the west.
Monday- The back door cold front will likely linger across southern New England. Slight frontogenic lift along with front will set the stage for scattered rain showers on Monday across southern New England and the northern Middle Atlantic. QPF will remain less than .1in for most all areas. Temperatures will warm to near 70F towards Washington DC, but remain in the lower 50s and upper 40s across New England courtesy of a tight thermal gradient.
Tuesday- The back door cold front and maritime flow will begin to push northward on Tuesday as a strong warm front lifts northward over the entire Northeast. H85s will rise to above +10C for many areas ahead of the cold front with 2m temperatures up towards 70F as for north as I-80. Weak forcing and lift along the front will limit QPF with generally convective precipitation trends. It appears like it will be a dirty warm sector and therefore will limit CAPE and subsequent surface instability. Also a developing low pressure along the front in North Carolina will steal most of the moisture from the front. Thunderstorm potential will be highest for those across southern Pennsylvania and into Maryland. Elsewhere just light rain showers are likely.
Wednesday-Friday- Much cooler weather is likely to settle in towards Easter weekend with a deep trough over the east and 1000-500mb thicknesses at sub 530dm for many areas. 2m temperatures will also likely be below normal, but overall conditions will be dry.
"Current Surface Map and Weekly History of Jet Stream Position"
(Courtesy of Weather Underground)
"Wildfire Outlook" (Updated 3/29)
A potentially dangerous wildfire season is possible for parts of the Northeast given the early mild spring temperatures and accompanied dry conditions. The recent warm spell resulted in many brush fires stretching from Pennsylvania through Maine, but many of these were minor in nature. The threat will continue through the next several weeks especially considering the forecasted dry pattern. Many areas in parts of New England have received at or less than two inches of rain over the past 60 days. While on the heels of one of the wettest years on record, low snow packs and depleting ground water from excess rain is resulting in potential drought risks over the next few months. The geology of the Northeast is very different than that of the western United States, so year to year rainfall does not have long-last effects. Dry vs. wet conditions are quite a bit more variable in the east and therefore the recent dry spell is already having consequential effects. Long range guidance suggests continued dry periods ahead with QPF at or less than .5in for the next 16 days over much of the Northeast in a continued progressive unamplified jet.
Here is a link to the criteria for fire development... Link.
Criteria for rapid initiation and spread of wildfires:
1. Winds must be sustained at 15 mph (13 knots) for two hours or more, and
2. Minimum Relative Humidities (which usually occur in the afternoon) must be 30 percent or less, and
3. 10-hour Fuel Moistures must be 15 percent or less (and expected to remain there for two or more days).
"Fire Outlooks from Storm Prediction Center Days 1, 2, and 3"
(Courtesy of NOAA)
"Gardening Outlook" (Updated 3/29)
March will likely prove to be one of the warmest March's on record for much of the contiguous United States courtesy of nearly persistent ridging across the middle and eastern portions of the nation. The jet stream has allowed much of the colder air to linger across the extreme polar regions. The lack of polar and arctic air this winter has allowed for a very 'early spring' to reach the Northeast. Many plants are nearly 2-3 weeks ahead of schedule for blooms including flowering fruit trees many of which are already past peak. The warm temperatures have also allowed many animals to come out of hibernation earlier than normal. Both of these factors set the stage for a possible dangerous situation should a rapid freeze affect much of the Northeast in the coming few weeks. The lack of cold temperatures in the winter will also allow an increase in tick and mosquite populations along with other insects and pathogens which may wreak havoc on local farmers. Anytime anomalous temperatures dominate the weather pattern for an extended period of time will result in major agricultural problems.
Given the mild temperatures during the past few weeks, I was able to plant a few crops in my vegetable garden raised beds. For those unfamiliar, my vegetable garden consists of 5 raised boxes with a mixture of hummus/manure, peat moss, garden soil combination. I also have a side in-ground bed consisting of several berry bushes (which I have no luck with, lol). After adding a few organic feeds to the soils and doing the seasonal turning of the soils, I planted my onion sets, parsley, broccoli, lettuce, peas, and radishes. After my issue of overcrowding last year, I am constructing lines of strings between each crop for extra organization in the garden. I will post pictures later in the spring.
This past week's freeze did seem to kill many of the flowers on the fruit trees, but overall other damage looks limited. Looking ahead another frost/freeze is likely Monday night as far south as central Maryland. And even farther ahead, the pattern is showing signs of cooling down across the east with in fact prognostics indicating quite a cool (winter-like?) start to the month of April. This may pose many problems for the early 'green-out' for much of the Northeast particularily in New England where temperatures in the 80s may be followed by several chances of snow in the coming weeks. It is still uncertain if there will be any long term effects environmental effects this summer from this recent warm winter, but according to experts it appears like most plants and animals seem to have adapted fairly well. The concern for farmers in the coming weeks will be watching very closely the threats for frosts.
Also as a side note, very dry conditions particularily towards New England have been recorded during the last two months. While not of immediate concern currently, there may be the potential for drought possibilities given a quick look at the long range. Stay tuned.
"Soil Moisture Anomalies and 5-day Precipitation Amounts from Hydro Prediction Center"
(Courtesy of NOAA)
"Severe Weather Outlook" (Updated 3/29)
Severe weather chances for the Northeast look limited over the next two weeks, which is to be expected for the Northeast given climatological odds. But the pattern over the entire United States suggested a potential active several week period is possible. The one limiting factor is the relatively progressive flow and inactive jet stream. But an increasing thermal gradient will likely polarize across the Midwest given the expected cool down in the east and warm up in the west and central plains. In fact the latest GFS and ECMWF operational and ensemble runs indicate a few instaneous examples where H85s approach -15C towards Chicago meanwhile while areas from Pennsylvania on northward are at or below 0C. This sharp gradient will likely be the catalyst for several severe weather outbreaks over the Midwest during the next few weeks. In the shorter term severe weather parameters are shaping up for a particularily active period as a cold front advances across the nation on Sunday and Monday. Keep an eye on areas in the deep south and along the Mississippi Valley where squall line development is possible given the latest prognostics. Farther east, a stable cool layer will prevent all thunderstorm development for the Northeast.
"Severe Weather Outlooks from Storm Prediction Center Days 1, 2, and 3"
(Courtesy of NOAA)
"Monthly Outlook" (April)
Long term peristence argues for once again mild temperature anomalies for much of the Northeast. But the warmth will be subdued for monthly averages courtesy of a likely cold period for the first two or so weeks of April. The current teleconnection pattern suggests a chance of a west-based -NAO allowing likely a weak trough to form over the east. This will likely result in several backdoor cold fronts with the coldest anomalies for those farthest north. The AO is also forecast to approach neutral or negative values suggesting that colder air will become more available to parts of North America in the coming two weeks. This also corresponds will the predicted Madden Jullian Oscillation phase changes. Recent NAEFS output also indicates cooler temperatures for the east coast. Overall roll-over techniques highlight that this will likely be short-lived with warmer temperatures headed back towards the region for the second half of April. Therefore the month will not feature a below normal departure for temperatures.
Temperatures- Anomalies ranging from (+)1.0-(+)2.5 for most all climatological reporting sites in the Northeast. Cooler temperatures will prevail earlier in the month with milder air for the second half likely giving way to a well above normal temperature pattern as we approach May.
Precipitation- Precipitation will likely be average below normal for stations across the Northeast fueled by a continued inactive jet and progressive pattern. Long term ensemble output indicates drier conditions persisting through the early summer.
"Temperature and Precipitation Outlooks from Climate Prediction Center for next 30 days"
(Courtesy of NOAA)
Lower Susquehanna Valley Doppler...
(Courtesy of WGAL)
Follow my 24hr forecasts on Twitter... Link and Facebook... Link.
"Linglestown, PA 2012 statistics"
(Severe Weather Stats...)
Severe Thunderstorm Watches- 0
Severe Thunderstorm Warnings- 0
Tornado Watches- 0
Tornado Warnings- 0
Total Thunderstorms- 3
(Precipitation Stats...)
Flash Flood/Flood Watches- 0
Flood Warnings- 0
Flash Flood Warnings- 0
(Temperature Stats...)
Heat Advisories- 0
Excessive Heat Warnings- 0
90degree days- 0
Highest Temperature- 78F
Reader Comments
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We have been dry the past couple of months, but at times dreary. Why is it that the weekends get half of the rain?
I look forward to seeing your pictures of your garden. I've been procratinating my gardens. I will probably get mine going by mid-April.
It's unrelated and not particularly practical, but has anyone seen this interesting CONUS wind visualization? Link
I guess the ground is just really warm for this time of year.
A discussion about education is always worthwhile. You are correct that the No Child Left Behind made a muck of things (or, as Howard Dean called it: "No Teacher Left Standing").
What I believe is most needed in any education system is someone to care individually about the child and the education that child will receive. We home schooled and one of the arguments we used to hear against home schooling was that parents aren't qualified. People would usually say that my husband and I were probably okay, since my husband was strong in math, history and science and I was strong in english and art. However, any thoughts of grandeur one might have about what qualifies someone to teach were humbled beautifully by one particular story that stays with me.
A woman wanted to take her child out of school and teach him at home because his teacher was physically abusing him. The child was struggling in school, and on an IEP (Individualised Education Program); the child was failing and the teacher apparently got frustrated a lot. Under the circumstances, the State was not in a position to quibble with the parent. However, folks were concerned that she would not be able to teach her son sufficiently, since she had but an 8th grade education, and was a single parent with a speech impediment. So, instead of an end-of-year report (which is what home schoolers do here), she was required to offer quarterly reports on the child's progress.
First he took the Summer off and just exhaled. They started studies in September and when the first report was submitted (attested to by a state certified teacher), this woman's son had caught up with his age mates, and by the end of the first year he was a year ahead! The difference between the school and home environments was that the teacher was trained and certified and unkind, while the mother was untrained, yet loved her child and encouraged his efforts.
I'd say the greatest help to a child is having a situation that doesn't send constant negative messages, but rather encourages small efforts. Children believe they can learn anything until someone tells them they're stupid. In my experience, most of teaching is providing resources and getting out of the way.
36F and cloudy, 465' elevation 2 miles east of the hudson river. Croton NY
There is a snow/rain mix forecast for the area Saturday morning. Sometimes when that is the case up at this elevation they tend to get a few hours of snow and could get a quick slushy inch or more. Not expecting anything at the moment though.
Another problem is you can't get rid of problem teachers. Just because they have a degree does not make them good teachers. I don't know what happened. Back in the 60's & 70's our teachers were competent and did a great job. We also respected our teachers. Somewhere along the way the job of teaching was messed up. There was a push at one time to disband the Dept. of Education and leave it up to the individual states. Like I said, there is too much bureaucracy. Lately, it seems like a few Federal Agencies are getting too much bureaucracy. Just hope the EPA doesn't come on your property and have a ruling on it. Or a town decides they want your property for high rises for more tax income.
Kind of neat to see the frost only in shaded areas with temp now at 37F. I have a Willow tree and the frost in the shaded grass from the tree is the shape of the Willow tree
That is a really neat link... I have never seen that before!
Now just a slight chance of sleet tomorrow morning. Rain.
NAM once again well overdoing snowfall potentials. I would discount it.
GFS with a more reasonable potential over a much smaller area.
Yep conditions here farther west are way to warm for snow looking at temperature profiles.
Looks like this is where our cold air is... probably a good thing!
38F, misting drizzle, light north wind
Yes, hopefully keep some of the methane contained that is seeping through the ice
What a dreary day in the LSV. Temp in the mid 40's and misty and cloudy
How much rain did the LSV area get last night?
I got 0.27".
I enjoyed the bit on education. I teach at a school that services economically disadvantaged students. There is a reform movement afoot here in CT to have new teaching standards enforced, which would be great, unfortunately, a major part of the teacher evaluation are standardized test scores. If test scores become the measure, then all teachers would like the college prep and honors level students. This would leave my niche of children, the poor, those will special needs and students who are learning English as well as their regular curriculum out in the cold.
There is a theatrical discussion in the forum about student achievement, but there are certain indicators that very few want to publicly debate out of fear of negative labels and name calling. First, if there are two active parents, then the child will probably do well. Also, if the child is not raised in poverty, then that child will probably do well. Hand in hand with the socioeconomic status of the student is breakfast. When a child has a balanced breakfast before going to school, the child usually performs higher. A very valid indicator of student performance is family performance, but no one wants to venture into this discussion because the subject has been too tainted politically.
Touch of winter again. Temps in the 40's and cold rain. Ended up with 0.85 in from Sat. Nothing on radar most of the day but a fine mist or soft rain till late.
In the Philly region, temperatures for the first half of April look to be near average, with below average rainfall, and below average Snowfall.
Sea ice extent was below mean on the Canadian side, and above mean on the European side of the globe, reulting in slightly below mean sea ice extent as a whole for March as compared to the 1979-2000 period.
Here is a good map image showing the deviations...
The problem I have with her commentary is to keep throwing more money into the education system. When does it stop? We keep throwing more money at the problem. When I was in elementary and junior and senior high we had class size in the upper 20's. We all learned properly. I don't get what it is all about to make class sizes around 15. I don't get that we have to just throw money at the problem and expect it to be solved. I'd love to see a comparison and money per student from the 70's and per student for 2012.
For the April post, Lynas divides Chapter 2 into four interesting, interrelated sections titled "The Ascent of Man," "God Species or Rebel Organism?", "The Descent of Man," and "Birth of the Fire-Ape."
I also highly recomend reading the interesting "Preface" section from the March 2012 entry.
This blog is updated on the first of each month over the span of twelve months, with a new subject for each environmental issue. The order of these topics will be the following...
March 1st: Preface
April 1st: Introduction: The Ascent of Man
May 1st: Boundary 1: Biodiversity
June 1st: Boundary 2: Climate Change
July 1st: Boundary 3: Nitrogen
August 1st: Boundary 4: Land Use
September 1st: Boundary 5: Fresh Water
October 1st: Boundary 6: Toxics
November 1st: Boundary 7: Aerosols
December 1st: Boundary 8: Ocean Acidification
January 1st: Boundary 9: Ozone Layer
February 1st: Epilogue: Managing the Planet
--------------------------------
I invite everyone of all kinds to come check it out. I would be very interested in "respectful and friendly" insights on the subject matter.
Here's the link: Link
Wow. I knew the ice extent near the Bering straight was above normal, but I didn't realize the ice extent was above normal on the west side of Greenland, and below normal above Norway. You would think with the cold winter in Europe and warm winter over most of Canada, that sea ice extent on March 31st would correspond with that, and I could have sworn I had read about it at somepoint during the winter. Seems strange.
It seems I was a victim of not doing research on the regional deviations of March Sea Ice Extent before I spoke, the type of mistake that I am highly against lol.
Blizz, do you know of an explanation for the lack of seas ice above Norway and extent of sea ice west of Greenland? My first thought (without researching) may be those nasty curves in the Jetstream (sometimes nearly horizontal rather than verticle) / water currents during the winter near Europe, providing warmer air & ocean currents in that below normal ice extent near there.
I hear it's supposed to hit 70F here in NW VT on Easter Sunday! So naturally I'll be spending the day with family in Maine, where it is expected to be about 55F for a high. LOL!
I've been a bit busy this past week preparing for my first ever art exhibit. My oil paintings and 8x10" photos are now hanging at the Library in town, for the month of April, along with some acrylic paintings by my newest daughter-in-law.
Listener: Congratulations on your art show. Great accomplishment to have produced enough work to do a show!
A balmy 42.3F here this morning. I enjoyed our little bit of snow in NH and am enjoying spring back here. Just loving the birdsong outside my window.
Sure
Congratulations. That is a great accomplishment. What is the theme of your paintings and photos? Or is it just random pictures?
03/28 Record High Maximum
Roanoke VA: 83F (t)
03/25 Record High Minimums
Poughkeepsie NY: 43F*
Williamsport PA: 47F*
Bridgeport CT: 45F (t)
Lynchburg VA: 53F (t)
Norfolk VA: 57F*
03/24 Record High Minimums
Portland ME: 42F*
Concord NH: 46F*
Boston MA: 47F*
Worcester MA: 46F*
Buffalo NY: 46F*
Hartford CT: 49F (t)
Providence RI: 46F (t)
Poughkeepsie NY: 54F*
Bridgeport CT: 48F (t)
Islip NY: 47F*
Hagerstown MD: 49F*
Wilmington DE: 51F*
Baltimore MD: 53F*
Dulles VA: 55F*
Washington DC: 54F (t)
Salisbury MD: 57F*
Richmond VA: 59F*
Blacksburg VA: 50F (t)
Norfolk VA: 62F*
03/22 Record High Minimums
Poughkeepsie NY: 55F*
Blacksburg VA: 46F*
Her columns can go either way, often I find myself disagreeing with her, but her recent ones on the mayhem in the city of Harrisburg are particularily comical.
MariettaMoon- Thanks for posting the blog link! And no, I am not sure of an explanation on the ice. It must have something to do with the anomalous +NAO and +AO earlier this winter though.
Congratulations! I would love to see pictures! I am actually doing a report on a past local artist back from the Harrisburg area who featured in wildlife and nature scenes; Ned Smith.
Yeah, maybe it was that
How's everyone doing?
On another note, Accuweather has released a new product... A 25-day forecast lol!
Now, weeks later, some areas have a freeze warning.
Wow, this surely has been the Season of Opposites!
PhillySnow, OriginalLT and TheRaspberryPatch, thanks for the kind comments about my art! I'm making Easter gifts at the moment (hand-decorated, hand-dipped candles), and will be with family for Easter weekend, but I'll post photos of my art by mid week, and you can see what you think. The art show is my art alongside that of my newest daughter-in-law, who is highly skilled at art, whereas I am untrained. She is Romare Bearden to my Grandma Moses! LOL! But I'm still very happy to be showing my art. I had to borrow all my paintings back for the month from family members I'd given them to. Each is specific to the recipient, from landscapes to sailing scenes to flowers and such. You'll see. :-) There are nine framed (water soluble) oil paintings and nine framed photos. My daughter-in-law has eight unframed acrylic paintings. So we really filled the Library! :-)
Croton, NY
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