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Thanksgiving Day update: Possible strong storm developing as Arctic air arrives???

Posted by: Bordonaro, 02:44 PM GMT on noiembrie 21, 2010

* November 21st, 2010 2:01 am CT

Tropopause folding over the Southwestern US on Thursday may develop a major storm system Thanksgiving Day.
The 1,5 PVU surface is the boundary between the troposphere and the stratosphere.
Photo: EU Meteorological Link.

Computer models hinting at a developing storm system on Thanksgiving as Arctic air pours in North Texas:

Thanksgiving Holiday week has begun across Ft Worth, the busiest travel time across the United States.
The National Weather Service office in Ft Worth has noticed an interesting trend over the last four or five computer models runs. They are hinting at a possible strong upper level storm system taking shape over the Desert Southwest, just as the Arctic air mass enters North Texas.

This could mean either a cold rain event, or possibly worse, depending on how much cold air pours in as this feature approaches and the strength of the approaching storm system.

At the moment the GEM, NOGAPS, ECMWF and GFS computer models are all in disagreement on both the arrival time of the Arctic air in North Texas and the specific Thanksgiving Day forecast. They do agree that Ft Worth will experience at least 48 hours of Arctic air and the coldest temperatures thus far this fall.

A fairly rare event will take place, known as "tropopause folding" on Wednesday into Thursday. Today's headline picture shows that stable air from about 60,000 feet will sink into the lower atmosphere, causing lift and spinning of the air with height, potentially building a potent and troublesome storm.

Below is a portion of the Area Forecast Discussion from the National Weather Service office in Ft Worth concerning the event:

* "THERE WERE HINTS IN THE MODELS YESTERDAY THAT THE MAIN UPPER
* TROUGH AXIS WOULD HANG BACK AND NOT CLEAR THE AREA UNTIL THURSDAY
* EVENING. ALL OF THE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SEEMINGLY TREND IN THIS
* DIRECTION TODAY...WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS LOOKING SHARPER AND
* MORE POTENT".

Look at the current Thanksgiving Day Forecast from the National Weather Service:

At the moment, the official forecast for Thanksgiving Day calls for Mostly cloudy skies with a slight chance of rain with temperatures ranging from a morning low of about 32 to 34 degrees with a daytime high only near 45 degrees with a stiff north wind of about 15 to 20 MPH, with higher gusts, putting wind chill factors in the twenties during a good portion of the day.

Further updates will be posted as the week progresses as the model forecasts will get a better handle on the upcoming event on late Monday into Tuesday.

Before the "Big Chill" arrives:

Sunday through late afternoon Wednesday will feature pleasant fall temperatures will variable clouds, breezy conditions with possible showers as temperatures range from near 60 degrees with afternoon highs in the 70 to 78 degree range.

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Questions or concerns? Please feel free to reach me via e-mail anytime and I will reply promptly. My e-mail address is robertbordonaro1961@hotmail.com

Updated: 03:09 PM GMT on noiembrie 21, 2010

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Here comes the Polar Vortex

Posted by: Bordonaro, 04:37 PM GMT on noiembrie 20, 2010

"Big Warm" before the "Big Chill" for the Metroplex * November 20th, 2010 12:29 am CTA look at the stark contrast in temperatures across the United States as the Polar front moves southPhoto: NOAA/NCEP Central OperationsUnusually mild late November temperatures in store for North Texas on Saturday-Monday:A very mild weekend is on tap for Ft Worth, as warm southerly winds pump in milder and more humid air northward across Texas, ahead of the "big chill" building i...

Updated: 04:39 PM GMT on noiembrie 20, 2010

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Temperature roller-coaster ride for North Texas then the

Posted by: Bordonaro, 04:59 PM GMT on noiembrie 19, 2010

The 12Z GFS model run 11-19-10 for 6AM CST Black Friday has Ft Worth in the "Deep Freeze".Image: NOAA/NCEP Central OperationsNorth Texas weather: Hold on for a wild temperature ride over the next 7 daysNovember in Ft Worth can truly be an adventure weather-wise. We sit in the Southern Plains and as winter approaches, we can have very changeable weather as colder air from Canada begins to sink southward on a frequent basis. As the cooler air retreats, our proximity ...

Updated: 05:21 PM GMT on noiembrie 19, 2010

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Possible Polar plunge before Thanksgiving for North Texas??

Posted by: Bordonaro, 12:14 AM GMT on noiembrie 17, 2010

* November 16th, 2010 1:56 am CTMuch colder air will be moving into North Texas next week before Thanksgiving.Photo: Kitsap SunTuesday 11-23-2010 GFS minimum temperatures. Notice the -37 F reading over the Yukon territory/Western British Colombia region:Sneak peek into the Thanksgiving week as Arctic air is expected to spill southward across the eastern two-thirds of the Nation:The National Weather Service office out of Ft Worth and National Weather Service offices ...

Updated: 12:28 AM GMT on noiembrie 17, 2010

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Severe WeatherThreat: Fort Worth under the gun on Friday, October 22, 2010

Posted by: Bordonaro, 03:19 AM GMT on octombrie 22, 2010

Link to my daily published article on the Examiner.com, an online-newspaper serving all 50 states and the world. All my published articles are there. I publish for the Ft. Worth Weather Examiner. Please feel free to subscribe to a daily update of comment LinkEvening update from NWS Ft. Worth highlights to increasing severe threat area moving towards DFW.Photo: National Weather Service Forecast office-Ft. Worth, TXAfter a beautiful Tuesday-Thursday weather-wise for N...

Updated: 03:46 AM GMT on octombrie 22, 2010

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