Tropical Storm Beryl: BB Analysis and Prediction
Situation/Introduction to Beryl:
As of 1:30Pm EDT on Saturday May 26, The center of Tropical Storm Beryl now located off the South Carolina Coast and slowly drifitng Southwest, began to fire convection to the southeast of the center. This may be indicative of the intrusion of the dry air slowly dwindling. Last Night, At 11pm when Beryl was first designated it was a Sub-Tropical System with a shallow warm core, with convection only in the NW quadrant. Although their was strong convection, it was still connected to the trough and thus this was quite deceiving. This morning, at 8am, although Beryl had lost most convection and was looking weaker, this was decieving, Beryl structure has improved, she is now firing convection in all four quadrants and is now about to move over Warm gulf waters. Dry Air seems to be lessening and shear has dropped from 50-60kts to 10-20kts. Thus i believe that strengthing will occur very soon.
Short Term Track:
The National Hurricane Center's 11am track shows Beryl making landfall south of Jacksonville, early monday morning, Now due to the current motion of Beryl, as it is now to the south of the forcast points, I believe a landfall around St.Augustine, Florida is now the most likely. However, a landfall from Cape Caneveral,Florida to Cumberland, Georgia is possible.
Intensity:
When the Hurricane Hunters do enter Beryl later today, i Suspect they will find winds of 50mph and gusts to 65. I believe that Beryl could become a Hurricane, if convection is maintained around the center. However i will now go with a conservative 60mph estimate with Beryl, as their are many factors, such as dry air, Shear, and the SSTS.
Final Comment:
This Storm is very strange and intresting, It could be once in a lifetime for the residents for North Florida, and South Georgia.
Final Warning/ Important INFO:
* Note: This Storm is forcasted to be a Slow Mover, a 70mph tropical storm that sits over an area for 15+ hours will do more damage than a 100mph Hurricane then just glances by in an hour.
From South Florida - Brickell Breeze
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Station 41013
NDBC
Location: 33.436N 77.743W
Date: Sat, 26 May 2012 17:50:00 UTC
Winds: NNE (30°) at 27.2 kt gusting to 33.0 kt
Significant Wave Height: 10.2 ft
Dominant Wave Period: 8 sec
Mean Wave Direction: E (85°)
Atmospheric Pressure: 29.96 in and falling
Air Temperature: 75.6 F
Dew Point: 70.3 F
Water Temperature: 76.1 F
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