Typhoon Mirinae less destructive than feared for Philippines
Typhoon Mirinae blew through the Philippines' Luzon Island yesterday as a borderline Category 1 to 2 typhoon with top winds of 95 - 100 mph. Due to the rapid forward motion of the typhoon and a sharp decrease in the storm's organization just prior to landfall, rainfall amounts from the typhoon were less than six inches over Luzon. The eye of Mirinae passed over the capital of Manila, where winds peaked at minimal tropical storm force, 39 mph, with gusts to 56 mph, at 6 am local time Saturday. Nearby weather stations recorded sustained winds as high as 44 mph, and rainfall amounts of 2 - 3 inches. Though Mirinae is being blamed for at least 11 deaths, with 7 people still missing, it's fair to say that the typhoon largely spared the Philippines. The Manila Bulletin is reporting that a tornado (called an "ipo-ipo" there) injured ten and destroyed some 60 houses in Cavite and Ternate as Mirinae swept through.
Mirinae, now just a tropical storm with 65 mph winds, is currently over the South China Sea. Mirinae is expected to make landfall in south-central Vietnam near 00 UTC on Monday, November 2. As Mirinae approaches Vietnam, wind shear will increase, sea surface temperatures and the total heat content of the ocean will sharply decrease, and the storm will encounter cooler, more stable air. These negative influences should make Mirinae a 45 - 55 mph tropical storm at landfall in Vietnam.
Figure 1. Filipinos watch the onslaught of Typhoon Mirinae on Saturday. Image credit: Jim Edds. His extremestorms.com website has images and videos from the landfall of Mirinae.
Quiet in the Atlantic
A non-tropical low pressure system in the middle Atlantic Ocean, near 30N 50W, 700 miles east of Bermuda, has cut off from the jet stream. This low will slowly wander westward toward Bermuda over the next three days. It is possible that the low will spend enough time over water to acquire some tropical characteristics and become Subtropical Storm Ida, though I put the chances at low, less than 30%. SSTs are 25 - 26° C in the region, which is barely warm enough to support a tropical storm. Wind shear is high, 30 - 50 knots, and there is a large amount of dry air to the west of the low, so no development will occur today. The storm is expected to recurve to the north well east of Bermuda on Tuesday.
None of the reliable computer models is calling for tropical storm development in the Atlantic over the next seven days. The GFS and NOGAPS models are calling for a tropical storm to form off the Pacific coast of Mexico near the Guatemala border by the middle of next week, and it is possible that this development could occur on the Atlantic side of Central America instead, as suggested by the Canadian model.
Jeff Masters
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TS BUSTED FORECAST, to be used in the event you make a minor discrepancy in your forecast.
You have to forgive me but I don't drink. But I've heard alcohol does that to you, lol
latest still shows a nice CDO
He already is one
You are really new, I am one already, lol
Solid warm core down to the mid-levels
Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert (2200z 01NOV)
===============================================
An area of convection (97W) located at 17.8N 126.3E or 360 NM east-northeast of Manila, Philippines has persisted over the past 12 hours. Animated infrared satellite imagery shows deep convection building over an organized low level circulation center. Moderate vertical wind shear to the north of the low level circulation center has been fueling the recent increase in poleward outflow. A 1215z ASCAT Pass showed winds along the northern portion of the low level circulation center were being enhanced by northeasterly flow out of the East China Sea and were between 20-25 knots. Sea surface temperatures are currently favorable for development but are decreasing as the low level circulation center tracks to the west-northwest and will likely drop below 28C within the next 12-24 hrs. Increasing northeasterly flow will likely help spin the system up within the next 12-24 hours as the low level circulation center moves towards northern Luzon. The interaction with the northeasterly cold surge occuring over the East China Sea will make development potential questionable in the long term. However,in the short term development is favorable. Based on increasing low level circulation center organization, favorable upper level outflow and marginally favorable sea surface temperature values, the potential for this disturbance to form into a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is UPGRADED TO GOOD
OK, Put you on the spot....warm core... winds are high enough... so does it get a name... your call... yes/no?
The winds, warm-core, SSTs, numerical models, satellite presentations, Herbert ST numbers, I am leaning towards Ida.
Good enough for a yes to me.
The system has been moving in the general direction of wnw or nw.
DATE/TIME LAT LON CLASSIFICATION STORM
01/1745 UTC 32.6N 55.3W ST2.5 96L
01/1145 UTC 31.6N 53.1W ST2.5 INVEST
01/0545 UTC 30.7N 51.4W ST2.5 INVEST
I agree, this looks like TS Grace, JR!!
Still too early to name this, Grace was looking great and was fully warm cored.. I'm starting to give this a higher chance (50+) for Ida to develop out of this. It's organizing quite well today.
What does that mean? No chance of STS at 8?
Remember its EST, so your correct with a 7 p.m TWO, but they would name it at 10 p.m EST.
Going out Monday and get two of those little laptops and a new large one.. all running 7
after the 11PM surface maps means 2mr morning. I skeptical of naming tonight.
This is insane... it really does need to pass some magical arbitrary line of organization made up by the NHC. If this went poof right now, even though it was short lived, it was warm core and over 35mph so it was a Tropical Storm!
In the mid-levels, it's warm core.. Still needs to go down to the surface, looks can be deceiving, it looks tropical, but in reality, it is a non-tropical low. This could change by tomorrow however.
That is not true. There is no importance stressed on a surface warm-core when we talk about tropical and subtropical cyclones. A cyclone's warm core is aloft (mid-levels to upper upper levels). That is the area which important as there is where the winds are driven.
compression? That would indicate sinking air, you mean condensation?
STS through, dare I say hurricane?
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
700 PM EST SUN NOV 1 2009
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED NEAR
THE CENTER OF A NON-TROPICAL GALE LOCATED ABOUT 450 MILES EAST OF
BERMUDA. THE LOW APPEARS TO BE ACQUIRING SOME SUBTROPICAL
CHARACTERISTICS...BUT IT IS STILL ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AT THIS TIME. IF THE LOW LOSES ITS FRONTAL PROPERTIES...
IT COULD BECOME A SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL STORM OVER THE NEXT DAY
OR SO AS IT MOVES NORTHWESTWARD AND THEN NORTHWARD AT AROUND 10
MPH. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT...OF THIS
SYSTEM BECOMING A SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT
48 HOURS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM...REFER TO HIGH
SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE UNDER AWIPS
HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT
EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER BERG/BRENNAN
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
700 AM EST SUN NOV 01 2009
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
IN TERMS OF NUMBERS...TROPICAL CYCLONE ACTIVITY DURING OCTOBER WAS
NEAR AVERAGE WITH TWO NAMED STORMS. HOWEVER...NEITHER OF THESE
STORMS BECAME HURRICANES...WHEREAS THE AVERAGE FOR OCTOBER IS ONE
HURRICANE. IN TERMS OF ACCUMULATED CYCLONE ENERGY...ACE...WHICH
MEASURES THE COMBINED STRENGTH AND DURATION OF TROPICAL STORMS AND
HURRICANES...OCTOBER ACE WAS WELL BELOW NORMAL AT ONLY 18 PERCENT
OF THE LONG-TERM MEAN DUE TO THE SHORT DURATIONS OF TROPICAL STORMS
GRACE AND HENRI.
REPORTS ON INDIVIDUAL CYCLONES...WHEN COMPLETED...ARE AT THE WEB
SITE OF THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER...USE LOWER CASE LETTERS...
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/2009ATLAN.SHTML
SUMMARY TABLE
NAME DATES MAX WIND (MPH)
-------------------------------------------------
TD ONE 28-29 MAY 35
TS ANA 11-16 AUG 40
MH BILL 15-24 AUG 135
TS CLAUDETTE 16-18 AUG 50
TS DANNY 26-29 AUG 60
TS ERIKA 1- 4 SEP 60
MH FRED 7-12 SEP 120
TD EIGHT 25-26 SEP 35
TS GRACE 4-6 OCT 70
TS HENRI 6-8 OCT 50
$$
HURRICANE SPECIALISTS UNIT
oh ok, just wanted to know what you really meant.
some of it is also heat of condensation.
Farther S in the tropics, more convection, more desending air, sharper and quicker deliniation between air going up and air going down-a truly warm core eye is born. Provided upper level winds do not disrupt this delicate process.
Click pic for loop
Can someone tell me how to read this? Looks like a bunch of colors and nonsense to me. I can read what the axes are... thats as far as i got in like a solid minute.
1. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED NEAR
THE CENTER OF A NON-TROPICAL GALE LOCATED ABOUT 450 MILES EAST OF
BERMUDA. THE LOW APPEARS TO BE ACQUIRING SOME SUBTROPICAL
CHARACTERISTICS...BUT IT IS STILL ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AT THIS TIME. IF THE LOW LOSES ITS FRONTAL PROPERTIES...
IT COULD BECOME A SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL STORM OVER THE NEXT DAY
OR SO AS IT MOVES NORTHWESTWARD AND THEN NORTHWARD AT AROUND 10
MPH. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT...OF THIS
SYSTEM BECOMING A SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT
48 HOURS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM...REFER TO HIGH
SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE UNDER AWIPS
HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.
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