Deadly late-season Atlantic hurricanes growing more frequent

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 01:40 PM GMT on noiembrie 17, 2010

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What may be the final tropical disturbance in the Atlantic (94L) has fizzled, due to dry air and increasing wind shear, and there's an excellent chance that this will be final "Invest" of 2010 in the Caribbean. The 2-week wind shear forecast from the GFS model is showing a dramatic increase in wind shear over the Caribbean in the coming weeks, which should put an end to the Caribbean hurricane season. However, it's been another remarkably active November in the tropics this year. The formation of Hurricane Tomas this month marks the fourth consecutive year in the Atlantic with a hurricane occurring November 1 or later. We had Category 1 Hurricane Noel in 2007, Category 4 Hurricane Paloma in 2008, Category 2 Hurricane Ida in 2009, and now Category 2 Tomas in 2010. This is the first time since beginning of reliable hurricane records in 1851 that there have been four consecutive years with a late-season November or December hurricane in the Atlantic. The previous record was three straight years, set in 1984 - 1986. It used to be that late-season hurricanes were a relative rarity--in the 140-year period from 1851 - 1990, only 30 hurricanes existed in the Atlantic on or after November 1, an average of one late-season hurricane every five years. Only four major Category 3 or stronger late-season hurricanes occurred in those 140 years, and only three Caribbean hurricanes. But in the past twenty years, late-season hurricanes have become 3.5 times more frequent--there have been fifteen late-season hurricanes, and five of those occurred in the Caribbean. Three of these were major hurricanes, and were the three strongest late-season hurricanes on record--Lenny of 1999 (155 mph winds), Paloma of 2008 (145 mph winds), and Michelle of 2001 (140 mph winds). Of course, the number of storms we are talking about is small, and one cannot say anything scientifically significant about late-season Atlantic tropical cyclone numbers, unless we include storms from late October as well. This was done, though, by Dr. Jim Kossin of the University of Wisconsin, who published a 2008 paper in Geophysical Research Letters titled, "Is the North Atlantic hurricane season getting longer?" He concluded that yes, there is an "apparent tendency toward more common early- and late-season storms that correlates with warming Sea Surface Temperature but the uncertainty in these relationships is high". The recent increase in powerful and deadly November hurricanes would seem to support this conclusion.


Figure 1. Damage on St. Lucia from Hurricane Tomas. Image credit: St. Lucia Star.

Deadly late-season Atlantic tropical cyclones are growing more frequent
In the 500+ years people have been encountering hurricanes in the Atlantic and recording these encounters, we are sure of only twenty November and December storms that have caused loss of life. If we restrict our time window to the past 70 years, when we have a fairly reliable data base of hurricane mortality thanks to the yearly storm summaries published in Monthly Weather Review, we find only ten late-season storms that killed people. Of those ten, seven occurred in the past twenty years, including the second deadliest late-season tropical cyclone on record, Hurricane Gordon of 1994, which killed 1145 people on Haiti. Only the Great Cuba Hurricane of 1932, which killed 3107 people in Cuba, the Cayman Islands, and the Bahamas, was a deadlier late-season tropical cyclone. Hurricane Tomas ranks as the 6th deadliest late-season hurricane since 1851 in the Atlantic. The storm left 30 dead or missing on Haiti, at least nine dead on St.Lucia, two on Curacao, and one in the Virgin Islands. The storm has caused hundreds more indirect cholera deaths in Haiti, by spreading contaminated water.


Figure 2. Number of days a named storm existed in the Atlantic during November and December between 1950 and 2010. Years when an El Niño event occurred are not included, in order to make the plot smoother (El Niño events tend to dampen Atlantic hurricane activity during all portions of the season.) There has been a general increase in late-season tropical cyclone activity over the Atlantic in recent decades.

The increase in deadly late-season storms in the past twenty years is primarily a Caribbean phenomena. Only two deadly late season hurricanes have affected the U.S. in the past century: Hurricane Kate of 1985, which killed five in Florida, and the 1925 Florida Hurricane, which hit southwest Florida as a Category 1 hurricane on December 1. This remarkable storm was the latest landfalling hurricane in U.S. history, and killed 60 people.

Resources
Kossin, J., 2008, "Is the North Atlantic hurricane season getting longer?", Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 35, L23705, doi:10.1029/2008GL036012, 2008.

A list of the 20 deadly late-season tropical cyclones: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/deadly_nove mber.asp

My blog post, Is the Atlantic hurricane season getting longer?

Next post
I'll have a new post on Friday.

Help support Portlight.org's efforts to bring some Christmas cheer to the kids of Haiti, by donating to their Christmas in Haiti campaign.

Jeff Masters

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790. PensacolaDoug
06:24 PM GMT on noiembrie 22, 2010
.
Member Since: iulie 25, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 649
789. PakaSurvivor
02:24 PM GMT on noiembrie 19, 2010
New Blog
Member Since: septembrie 20, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 235
788. utilaeastwind
02:19 PM GMT on noiembrie 19, 2010

We are located at 16.1N 86.9W

Winds are from the East blowing at close to 30kts.

I hope the cold front does not cause the system to stall.
Member Since: octombrie 12, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 192
787. scott39
02:14 PM GMT on noiembrie 19, 2010
Quoting PensacolaDoug:


No wabbits either!
LOL, Never Bugs.
786. jeffs713
02:03 PM GMT on noiembrie 19, 2010
Quoting HurricaneDean07:
sweet then ive seen the pattern too. I've found since 04 the pattern has been
Active 04, Active 05, Quiet 06, Active 07, Active 08, Quiet 09, Active 10, Active 11?, Quiet 12...

And those quiet seasons tie in very well with El Nino years.
Member Since: august 3, 2008 Posts: 16 Comments: 5891
785. hu2007
02:02 PM GMT on noiembrie 19, 2010
Quoting Skyepony:
That blob in the central Atlantic may spin up & cause some problems for the southern islands, Trinidad & Tobago in about a weyeah like tomas track the only difference is that at the eastern carribean if intensify it may head north by a polar pesturbatioon and head toward pr and us virgin island and n lesser antilles ur stay weak and head straight west in too thw estern carribean, something to keep a eye on
ek.
Member Since: august 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 325
784. hu2007
02:00 PM GMT on noiembrie 19, 2010
yeah like tomas track the only difference is that at the eastern carribean if intensify it may head north by a polar pesturbatioon and head toward pr and us virgin island and n lesser antilles ur stay weak and head straight west in too thw estern carribean, something to keep a eye on
Member Since: august 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 325
783. Orcasystems
01:58 PM GMT on noiembrie 19, 2010
Complete Update






TSPIN BUSTED FORECAST ALIBI
Member Since: octombrie 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26512
782. Skyepony (Mod)
01:48 PM GMT on noiembrie 19, 2010
That blob in the central Atlantic may spin up & cause some problems for the southern islands, Trinidad & Tobago in about a week.
Member Since: august 10, 2005 Posts: 209 Comments: 39100
781. hu2007
01:48 PM GMT on noiembrie 19, 2010
Link i have a strange feeling about the strong tropical wave in middle atlantic
Member Since: august 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 325
780. hu2007
01:44 PM GMT on noiembrie 19, 2010
look interesting tropical wave in middle atlantic but getting hammer by fast wind shear but this will enter the carribean with a possible tropical formationn in 2 weeks, weird, gfs 6 anyone? la ni~a is still strong so no surprise with a final invest a least in eastern carribean...http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/flash-rb.html
Member Since: august 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 325
779. HurricaneDean07
01:36 PM GMT on noiembrie 19, 2010
Quoting CybrTeddy:


All early indications are saying 2011 will be pretty active like 2010 was.

And if we go by the pattern we've been having since 2005 (Neutral, El Nino, La Nina, Neutral, El Nino, La Nina) We should either get a neutral or a La Nina in 2011 and a El Nino in 2012.
sweet then ive seen the pattern too. I've found since 04 the pattern has been
Active 04, Active 05, Quiet 06, Active 07, Active 08, Quiet 09, Active 10, Active 11?, Quiet 12...
Member Since: octombrie 3, 2010 Posts: 40 Comments: 4129
778. PensacolaDoug
01:21 PM GMT on noiembrie 19, 2010
Quoting scott39:
Goodmorning all, The 7 Day forecast shows the temperatures starting to drop on the N Gulf Coast-- Thanksgiving thru the holiday weekend. A hunting I will go! I promise I wont shoot Bambi!


No wabbits either!
Member Since: iulie 25, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 649
777. scott39
12:38 PM GMT on noiembrie 19, 2010
I just read something that really ticked me off. Why did the members of congress wealth go up 16% from 2008-2009, when my 95 year old grandmother wont get any increase in her social security for the second year in a row. Over half the members of congress are millionares. They should at least refuse any pay raises, or if they really give a damn about people, they would refuse pay until we get out of this mess we are in. Sorry about the rant. Nobody else here to vent on!
776. Patrap
12:31 PM GMT on noiembrie 19, 2010
GOM IR Loop

Member Since: iulie 3, 2005 Posts: 427 Comments: 129442
775. WeatherNerdPR
12:30 PM GMT on noiembrie 19, 2010
Good morning. The most interesting area to me is that blob of convection in between 30W and 40W, south of 10N.
Member Since: iulie 7, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5725
774. scott39
12:25 PM GMT on noiembrie 19, 2010
Venison-- Hmm Hmm Good!
773. IKE
12:14 PM GMT on noiembrie 19, 2010
Ah...turkey and dressing and cold weather. Time to light my fire:)
Member Since: iunie 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
772. scott39
12:10 PM GMT on noiembrie 19, 2010
Goodmorning all, The 7 Day forecast shows the temperatures starting to drop on the N Gulf Coast-- Thanksgiving thru the holiday weekend. A hunting I will go! I promise I wont shoot Bambi!
771. IKE
12:04 PM GMT on noiembrie 19, 2010
PRELIMINARY EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
344 AM EST FRI NOV 19 2010

VALID 12Z TUE NOV 23 2010 - 12Z FRI NOV 26 2010


A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH WILL START OFF
THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD ACROSS THE WEST INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST.
THIS LARGE SCALE FEATURE WILL HELP STEER TWO PAC/POLAR SHORT WAVE
FEATURES OUT OF THE WEST INTO THE PLAINS... WHILE A QUICK ARCTIC
INTRUSION INVADES THE NRN ROCKIES/PLAINS. THE FIRST SHORT WAVE
IMPULSE STARTING OFF MON IS EJECTING OUT INTO THE NRN/CENTRAL
PLAINS BUT QUICKLY LIFTS UP INTO ONTARIO BY TUES MORNING. THE NEXT
UPSTREAM IMPULSE IS ARRIVING INTO CA MON MORNING... MOVING THROUGH
THE GREAT BASIN AND LIFTING THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE
GRT LAKES TUES INTO WED. ALSO LATE MON INTO TUES... A SIGNIFICANT
SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR WILL SURGE SOUTH FROM CANADA INTO THE NRN
ROCKIES/PLAINS. ONCE THIS OCCURS... THE LONG WAVE UPPER TROUGH
SHOULD BE ON THE MOVE... SLIDING INTO THE PLAINS/MS VLY ON WED AND
INTO THE ERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY ON THURS.
THIS ALSO MEANS THEN
THE IMPRESSIVE SERN/MID-ATL RIDGE SHOULD BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN.
FOLLOWING THE AMPLIFIED UPPER TROUGH OUT WEST WILL BE A
SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN UPPER HEIGHTS AND A SOLID RIDGE BUILDING
BY THURS/FRI. HPC FOLLOWED A BLEND OF THE 00Z ECMWF/UKMET FOR DAYS
3 AND 4... A BLEND OF THE 00Z ECMWF/GFS AND GEFS MEAN ON DAYS 5
AND 6 AND JUST THE OPERATIONAL ECMWF ON DAY 7.


MUSHER


Member Since: iunie 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
770. islander101010
12:03 PM GMT on noiembrie 19, 2010
nhc only been doing circles for a couple yrs or so but in diameter of the circle in the nw carib is one of the smallest so far
Member Since: septembrie 11, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 4995
769. Neapolitan
11:54 AM GMT on noiembrie 19, 2010
Quoting IKE:
11 days...
18 hours...
12 minutes...and it's over...

That is, unless we see a single December storm like we did in 2005 and 2007, or two December storms like we did in 2003. That's four in seven years, or roughly 57%. (And, of course, November isn't over yet.) You never know...

Either way, hurricane season 2011 starts in just 193 days, 12 hours, and 7 minutes...
Member Since: noiembrie 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13743
768. IKE
11:48 AM GMT on noiembrie 19, 2010
11 days...
18 hours...
12 minutes...and it's over...

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
700 AM EST FRI NOV 19 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A
WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE GULF OF HONDURAS...WEST
OF THE BAY ISLANDS. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT CONDUCIVE FOR
DEVELOPMENT...AND THE LOW CENTER IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INLAND OVER
BELIZE AND GUATEMALA LATER TODAY. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 12 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 5 TO 10 MPH. REGARDLESS OF
DEVELOPMENT...THE DISTURBANCE COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
OVER PORTIONS OF BELIZE...GUATEMALA...AND THE SOUTHERN YUCATAN
PENINSULA OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

..............................................

Member Since: iunie 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
767. aislinnpaps
11:33 AM GMT on noiembrie 19, 2010
Good morning, everyone. A chilly 46 degrees here, but have a lovely fire burning in the fireplace. I hate to leave for school, but the kiddies will be waiting for me. But half day today due to high school football team going to regionals. And off all next week for Thanksgiving. Hoping the weather will be chilly enough for a fire most days.
Member Since: august 22, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 3166
766. CybrTeddy
11:01 AM GMT on noiembrie 19, 2010
Quoting CyclonicVoyage:


I think the margin of error has went up quite heavily the past several years with respect to predictions. What was, doesn't seem to be what is anymore. Generally speaking, we'll see what 2011 has to offer. Maybe the calm before the 2012 storm???


All early indications are saying 2011 will be pretty active like 2010 was.

And if we go by the pattern we've been having since 2005 (Neutral, El Nino, La Nina, Neutral, El Nino, La Nina) We should either get a neutral or a La Nina in 2011 and a El Nino in 2012.
Member Since: iulie 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24552
765. wschlei
09:14 AM GMT on noiembrie 19, 2010
Dear Dr. Masters,
I'm not sure that mortality figures are the best way to compare changes in hurricane activity. There could be many reasons why storms are deadly apart from intensity.
Haiti is vulnerable to heavy rainfall because of deforestation, which leads to faster runoff and more flooding from less precipitation; it is also poorer and more densely populated than 50 years ago – more people are vulnerable because they take greater risks to survive and have fewer options about where to live and/or shelter in a storm.
There are also more people in the world – is a larger percentage of the affected population dying? How good, how accurate and consistent is the data over the "500+ years people have been encountering hurricanes in the Atlantic and recording these encounters"? Even in the past 70 years?
Mortality has more to do with preparedness and response. It doesn't always follow wealth – compare mortality from Hurricane Andrew in the Bahamas and the US: 3 direct and 1 indirect deaths in the Bahamas (one hit by flying debris and another drowned because too intoxicated to climb out of the storm surge into the attic of the house where others survived (OK, I ran a hotel on Harbour Island in 1995 and the causes I report are anecdotal) another person died of a heart attack during the storm). In the US, 26 direct, 39 indirect deaths, and a response that led to restructuring FEMA and conspiracy theories of the body count.
All this to say that "more deadly" may be a good inquiry, but more data is needed!
W Schlei
Int'l School Ho Chi Minh City
P.S. This IB Geography and Theory of Knowledge teacher thanks you for providing the material for a good lesson in both courses...and on Teacher's Day, too!
Member Since: septembrie 2, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 0
764. greentortuloni
07:56 AM GMT on noiembrie 19, 2010
Sorry, by "how they take into account the vanishing arctic sea ice", I meant the rest of the arctic ice. I understood that they only modeled the disappearance of the Barents-Kara Sea ice, nor did they attempt to calculate (model?, guess?)overall effects on temperatures in the other Northern regions. They modeled the relatively local conditions after observing that a loss of ice corresponded to a severe winter in 2006.
Member Since: iunie 5, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1220
763. greentortuloni
07:45 AM GMT on noiembrie 19, 2010
Science Daily has an article about parts of the North (Europe and Asia) having colder winters due to global warming.

I didn't read past the front page. I don't know details such as how they take into account the vanishing arctic sea ice (3 years, my estimation, in case someone, ahem, is keeping records of predictions). I also don't know the political bias of Science Daily (but they are merely referencing anyway).

Still, with Turkey day coming and winter settling in everywhere I thought it might be of interest.
Member Since: iunie 5, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1220
762. Bordonaro
06:14 AM GMT on noiembrie 19, 2010
Quoting Drakoen:


With this La Nina, what you saw last year will be very unlikely to happen again this year.

Thank you Jesus..We will have wild temperature swings though :O)
Member Since: august 25, 2009 Posts: 20 Comments: 6785
761. Bordonaro
06:13 AM GMT on noiembrie 19, 2010
Quoting tornadodude:


thanks Bob! (:

You are welcome. I know you will do a GREAT job..
Member Since: august 25, 2009 Posts: 20 Comments: 6785
760. Drakoen
06:12 AM GMT on noiembrie 19, 2010
Quoting Bordonaro:

At least it won't snow in Ft Worth on Thanksgiving..I better not say that too loud or our fickle "La Nina" may change her mind, again!


With this La Nina, what you saw last year will be very unlikely to happen again this year.
Member Since: octombrie 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30727
759. tornadodude
06:11 AM GMT on noiembrie 19, 2010
Quoting Bordonaro:

Tornado Dude will be publishing for the Evansville, IN Weather Examiner. His URL will be: http://www.examiner.com/weather-and-climate-in-evansville

I also write for the Ft Worth Weather Examiner and my URL is: http://www.examiner.com/weather-and-climate-in-fort-worth


thanks Bob! (:
Member Since: iunie 28, 2006 Posts: 25 Comments: 8360
758. Bordonaro
06:11 AM GMT on noiembrie 19, 2010
Quoting Drakoen:


Cold Black Friday Morning

At least it won't snow in Ft Worth on Thanksgiving..I better not say that too loud or our fickle "La Nina" may change her mind, again!
Member Since: august 25, 2009 Posts: 20 Comments: 6785
757. Drakoen
06:09 AM GMT on noiembrie 19, 2010
Quoting Bordonaro:


Cold Black Friday Morning
Member Since: octombrie 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30727
756. Bordonaro
06:08 AM GMT on noiembrie 19, 2010
Friday, 6 AM CST 00Z 11-19-10 model run
Member Since: august 25, 2009 Posts: 20 Comments: 6785
755. Bordonaro
05:56 AM GMT on noiembrie 19, 2010
Quoting Seawall:
Tornadodude, please post the link when your article is online. I'd love to read it.

Tornado Dude will be publishing for the Evansville, IN Weather Examiner. His URL will be: http://www.examiner.com/weather-and-climate-in-evansville

I also write for the Ft Worth Weather Examiner and my URL is: http://www.examiner.com/weather-and-climate-in-fort-worth
Member Since: august 25, 2009 Posts: 20 Comments: 6785
754. tornadodude
05:50 AM GMT on noiembrie 19, 2010
Quoting Bordonaro:

I am so glad for you :O)..


Thanks!

Quoting Seawall:
Tornadodude, please post the link when your article is online. I'd love to read it.


I will once it is completed, and I'll post the link on my blog as well. I will regularly post a link to my articles there so they can be found easily
Member Since: iunie 28, 2006 Posts: 25 Comments: 8360
753. Seawall
05:49 AM GMT on noiembrie 19, 2010
Tornadodude, please post the link when your article is online. I'd love to read it.
Member Since: septembrie 8, 2001 Posts: 1 Comments: 401
752. Bordonaro
05:45 AM GMT on noiembrie 19, 2010
Quoting tornadodude:
'

writing my first article for the Evansville Examiner (:

I am so glad for you :O)..
Member Since: august 25, 2009 Posts: 20 Comments: 6785
751. tornadodude
05:43 AM GMT on noiembrie 19, 2010
Quoting Bordonaro:

I saw that, we still have not had our first official freeze in the DFW Metroplex..That will change this coming week :O)
'

writing my first article for the Evansville Examiner (:
Member Since: iunie 28, 2006 Posts: 25 Comments: 8360
750. Seawall
05:42 AM GMT on noiembrie 19, 2010
Hey guys; don't get a chance to post that often, but do keep up with the blog.
Will be interesting to see just how far south the cold front after/during Thanksgiving will get. Here in SW Louisiana, rain predicted, of course.. LOL, then after, our locals don't seem to know.
Good to get through another season without one that costs me money.. LOL Rita and Ike were expensive.
Member Since: septembrie 8, 2001 Posts: 1 Comments: 401
749. Bordonaro
05:39 AM GMT on noiembrie 19, 2010
Quoting F4PHANTOM:
freeze warning for Austin tonite. Near freezing for us in Houston next Fri the 27th

I saw that, we still have not had our first official freeze in the DFW Metroplex..That will change this coming week :O)
Member Since: august 25, 2009 Posts: 20 Comments: 6785
747. Bordonaro
05:36 AM GMT on noiembrie 19, 2010
Orca's forecast...Vancouver, BC..Ha, ha, ha :OP

Thursday Night
Chance of Snow. Overcast. Low: 32 F . Wind NE 13 mph . 40% chance of precipitation (water equivalent of 0.31 in). Windchill: 32 F .

Friday
Chance of Snow. Partly Cloudy. High: 42 F . Wind NNE 15 mph . 20% chance of precipitation (water equivalent of 0.02 in). Windchill: 22 F .

Friday Night
Chance of Snow. Overcast. Low: 32 F . Wind NE 15 mph . 30% chance of precipitation (water equivalent of 0.18 in). Windchill: 15 F .

Saturday
Partly Cloudy. High: 37 F . Wind North 17 mph . Windchill: 26 F .

Saturday Night
Chance of Snow. Scattered Clouds. Low: 28 F . Wind NNE 13 mph . 20% chance of precipitation (trace amounts). Windchill: 15 F .

Sunday
Clear. High: 33 F . Wind NNE 13 mph . Windchill: 22 F .

Sunday Night
Clear. Low: 22 F . Wind NNE 8 mph . Windchill: 8 F .

Monday
Clear. High: 30 F . Wind NNE 13 mph . Windchill: 19 F .

Monday Night
Scattered Clouds. Low: 17 F . Wind NNE 13 mph . Windchill: 4 F .

Tuesday
Scattered Clouds. High: 25 F . Wind NE 8 mph . Windchill: 19 F .

Tuesday Night
Chance of Snow. Scattered Clouds. Low: 23 F . Wind NE 8 mph . 20% chance of precipitation (water equivalent of 0.01 in). Windchill: 12 F .
Member Since: august 25, 2009 Posts: 20 Comments: 6785
746. Bordonaro
05:27 AM GMT on noiembrie 19, 2010
Quoting F4PHANTOM:
thought it was supposed to be dryer and warmer because of la nina

The overall winter may be drier and warmer than normal for the Dallas-Ft Worth, TX region.

However, this will mean a transition day like FR when we'll be 39/66F, then several warm days, like we're expecting SA-TU with temps from 61/73F, another transition day on WE 49/66F, then the bottom drops out on TH/FR with temps from 31/38F TH, then 29F/53F FR and the cycle begins again!!
Member Since: august 25, 2009 Posts: 20 Comments: 6785
745. Orcasystems
05:21 AM GMT on noiembrie 19, 2010
Quoting Bordonaro:
Latest 00Z GFS run leaves Dallas-Ft Worth, TX between 31-38F for the ENTIRE Thanksgiving Day..
Our normals are 43/63F..So we may be about 20F BELOW normal..

Oh, Orca, enjoy your snow!!




Bah Humbug
Member Since: octombrie 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26512
743. Bordonaro
05:14 AM GMT on noiembrie 19, 2010
Quoting NRAamy:
PINHOLE EYE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

No, no, no!! Are you having Alex, Karl and Paula flashbacks :P
Member Since: august 25, 2009 Posts: 20 Comments: 6785
742. tornadodude
05:11 AM GMT on noiembrie 19, 2010
evening everybody
Member Since: iunie 28, 2006 Posts: 25 Comments: 8360
741. Bordonaro
05:11 AM GMT on noiembrie 19, 2010
Latest 00Z GFS run leaves Dallas-Ft Worth, TX between 31-38F for the ENTIRE Thanksgiving Day..
Our normals are 43/63F..So we may be about 20F BELOW normal..

Oh, Orca, enjoy your snow!!


Member Since: august 25, 2009 Posts: 20 Comments: 6785
740. Orcasystems
04:57 AM GMT on noiembrie 19, 2010


Click to enlarge... but then again, why would you do that??
Member Since: octombrie 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26512

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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