Globe cools slightly in December 2010: 11th - 17th warmest on record

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 02:43 PM GMT on ianuarie 18, 2011

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December 2010 was the globe's 17th warmest December on record, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) National Climatic Data Center (NCDC). NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies rated December 2010 the 11th warmest December on record. December 2010 global ocean temperatures were the 10th warmest on record, and land temperatures were the 30th warmest on record. Global satellite-measured temperatures for the lowest 8 km of the atmosphere were the 7th warmest on record, according to both Remote Sensing Systems and the University of Alabama Huntsville (UAH). The global cool-down from November, which was the warmest November on record for the globe, was due in large part to the on-going moderate strength La Niña episode in the Eastern Pacific. The large amount of cold water that upwells to the surface during a La Niña typically causes a substantial cool-down in global temperatures. Still, December 2010 temperatures were warm enough to make 2010 tied with 2005 as Earth's warmest year in history, as I reported in yesterday's post.

For those interested, NCDC has a page of notable weather highlights from December 2010.


Figure 1. Departure of temperature from average for December 2010. Eastern Canada and Greenland were very warm, relative to average, and much of Siberia and Europe were abnormally cold. Image credit: National Climatic Data Center (NCDC).

An average December for the U.S.
For the contiguous U.S., December was near-average in temperature, ranking as the 44th coldest December in the 116-year record, according to the National Climatic Data Center. The year 2010 was the 23rd warmest on record. A strong "Arctic Oscillation" pattern allowed cold air to spill southward over the Southeast U.S., resulting in the coldest December on record in Florida and Georgia. Nine other states in the Southeast U.S. had top-ten coldest Decembers. Five states in the Southwest U.S. had top-ten warmest Decembers. A series of major snowstorms brought the 7th-largest December snow cover to the U.S. as a whole. December 2010 precipitation in the contiguous U.S. was also near average, ranking 54th driest in the 116-year record. Montana and Utah had their wettest Decembers on record, and six other states had top-ten wettest Decembers--Minnesota, North Dakota, South Dakota, Oregon, Maine, and California. Six states had top-ten driest Decembers--Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, Arkansas, Kansas, and Delaware.

La Niña in the "moderate" to "strong" category
The equatorial Eastern Pacific Ocean is currently experiencing moderate to strong La Niña conditions. Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) over the tropical Eastern Pacific in the area 5°N - 5°S, 120°W - 170°W, also called the "Niña 3.4 region", were 1.5°C below average as of January 10, according to NOAA. The Australian Bureau of Meteorology put this number at 1.45°C below average (as of January 9.) Moderate La Niña conditions are defined as occurring when this number is 1.0°C - 1.5°C below average. Temperatures colder than 1.5°C below average qualify as strong La Niña conditions. NOAA is maintaining its La Niña advisory, and expects La Niña conditions to last through through spring.

Both El Niño and La Niña events have major impacts on regional and global weather patterns. La Niña typically causes warm, dry winters over the southern portion of the U.S., with cooler and wetter than average conditions over the Pacific Northwest. The Ohio and Mississippi Valleys states typically have wetter winters than usual during La Niña events.

December 2010 Arctic sea ice extent lowest on record
Northern Hemisphere sea ice extent in December 2010 was the lowest in the 31-year satellite record, according to the National Snow and Ice Data Center. Ice volume in December was also the lowest on record for this time of year, according to University of Washington Polar Ice Center. At the end of December, the eastern portion of Canada's Hudson Bay remained unfrozen, the first time in recorded history that Hudson Bay has not been completely frozen over at the end of the year. The unusual amount of open water led to temperatures that averaged 20°C (36°F) above normal over a region larger than Texas during the first ten days of January.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting Jedkins01:


don't worry, we will continue eating food, and continue drinking water. Don't let Global Warming scare you from continuing those natural biological instincts :)


You just have to pay more for them.
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Quoting txag91met:


One thing is for sure, the Earth had a lot more CO2 than this ( 5000 ppm), and it was a lot warmer than this in the past. I think humans will still be able to survive for a long, long time even as CO2 approaches 1,000 ppm. CO2 doubling from here adds about 1-2 watts per square meter...if everything is equal (excluding water vapor) then the planet should warm up another 1-2C this next century. Just move 5N and you will get acclimated. And in about 50-100 years we won't be driving cars, as new undiscovered technologies will take over. So enjoy the balmy weather while it lasts.
http://i673.photobucket.com/albums/vv94/jerryrolison/tempco2levels600milyears.gif


that's the funniest thing of all, is to watch Global Warming activists go kookoo for cocoa puffs about the end of humanity. Meanwhile the extra CO2 may bring us back to mostly world wide tropics. Personally, I don't think most of the world that suffers from winter cold will be complaining :)
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Quoting pottery:

Well, maybe I should have qualified my "real nice".
"Real nice" is from Jan to Feb.
"Real Dread" is from March to December...
Too Hot, Too Dry, Too Wet, Too Humid, Too Smoky,

heheheheheh


Okay...You can visit me :)
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Quoting JFLORIDA:


As there are thousands of proxies for warming and I dont have time for such idiocy OR to find another Watts disaster - you look it up.

If he has a valid opinion he should get it published instead of waving it in front of science flunkies as holy gospel from god himself.

Why cant he seem to do that?

Would you like to see the sources for historic climate proxies?


You're either ignoring the post, or simply confused. I gave you a post from Climate Audit, showing an error in one Mann paper, and you respond with an post discussing a problem with an earlier Mann paper.

There is something common to both of those papers, however.

Someone needs to focus...
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Quoting Jedkins01:


don't worry, we will continue eating food, and continue drinking water. Don't let Global Warming scare you from continuing those natural biological instincts :)

Whew!
Thanks, I was worried....

ONWARD>>>>>>>>>>>
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Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


I would love to visit your little part of heaven!

Well, maybe I should have qualified my "real nice".
"Real nice" is from Jan to Feb.
"Real Dread" is from March to December...
Too Hot, Too Dry, Too Wet, Too Humid, Too Smoky,

heheheheheh
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting pottery:

What will we eat????
What will we drink????
How will we power Industry, Transport, Cities, etc ???


don't worry, we will continue eating food, and continue drinking water. Don't let Global Warming scare you from continuing those natural biological instincts :)
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Quoting pottery:

True!
But I am enjoying the fantastic weather here. Typical "onset of the dryseason" stuff.
Generally clear skies, easterly winds at 18 mph or so, high 80's temp with low humidity, occasional brief shower to keep things green....
Real nice.


I would love to visit your little part of heaven!
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Quoting Xyrus2000:


And just like rum, we'll know after we let it age for a couple of decades.

Only problem is there isn't a cure for a global hangover.

Aaaahhhh!
Nice post.
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Quoting EnergyMoron:


In Houston there is a billboard along 610 saying "my rum can beat up your rum..."

Sort of like what this blog has turned into...


And just like rum, we'll know after we let it age for a couple of decades.

Only problem is there isn't a cure for a global hangover.
Member Since: octombrie 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1570
Quoting Xyrus2000:


Now that is a lot of data. Even have a folder of hurricanes. :)


I've just found a study with photos of bioluminescence exploration in Bahamas, a study of volcanoes in the sea floor (East of California) and I'm still exploring the data...
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Quoting JFLORIDA:


As there are thousands of proxies for warming and I dont have time for such idiocy OR to find another Watts disaster - you look it up.

If he has a valid opinion he should get it published instead of waving it in front of science flunkies as holy gospel from god himself.

Why cant he seem to do that?

Would you like to see the sources for historic climate proxies?


Have you read the excellent discussion in the Annals of Applied Statistics to which I often link?
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Quoting Neapolitan:

The 2005 map used a 1961-1990 base, while the 2010 map uses a 1971-2000 base. The latter incorporates a hotter decade, so it takes correspondingly higher temps for any particular anomaly to appear in red. IOW, a temp shown in blue in 2010 might have been red had the 2005 base been used.


Did it also use 1200 km smoothing?
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Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


Doing good. Hope you are well also. This limbo period before Hurricane season is quite dicey.

True!
But I am enjoying the fantastic weather here. Typical "onset of the dryseason" stuff.
Generally clear skies, easterly winds at 18 mph or so, high 80's temp with low humidity, occasional brief shower to keep things green....
Real nice.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting hcubed:


Amazing. Simply amazing.

I asked about Mann et al (2008), and you jump back with a comment about Mann et al (1998).

If you had bothered to read the post I referenced, you would have seen what article I was referencing.


Latest on Mann work; peer reviewed

It is now the green check instead of the hockey stick.

It is getting warmer (no room for denial of this in the data) but wide error bars.
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Quoting JRRP:


tied

The 2005 map used a 1961-1990 base, while the 2010 map uses a 1971-2000 base. The latter incorporates a hotter decade, so it takes correspondingly higher temps for any particular anomaly to appear in red. IOW, a temp shown in blue in 2010 might have been red had the 2005 base been used.
Member Since: noiembrie 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13626
Quoting pottery:

Problem with circles, is that they have no end.....
Oh, Wait!
Maybe that can be disputed too....

LOL, how you doing WPB?


Doing good. Hope you are well also. This limbo period before Hurricane season is quite dicey.
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Quoting JFLORIDA:


Except plants do not respond proportionally to CO2 in light of other nutrients. Increased temperature past a threshold is detrimental to most plants and rapid climatic change is detrimental to most species.

Not to mention the effects of ocean acidification.

So other than being absurd and flippant plus having problems with reality that is completely correct.


now up to 77%

So tell us, does CO2 and Temp have a linear or logarithmic relationship ? Anyone? ?
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Quoting GeoffreyWPB:



Problem with circles, is that they have no end.....
Oh, Wait!
Maybe that can be disputed too....

LOL, how you doing WPB?
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Quoting JFLORIDA:
325 - You mean this:

1. page 13, 2nd paragraph (through top of page 14)
It should be noted that some falsely reported putative errors in
the Mann et al.(1998) proxy data claimed by McIntyre and McKitrick
(2003) are an artifact of (a) the use by these latter authors of an
incorrect version of the Mann et al. (1998) proxy indicator dataset, and
(b) their misunderstanding of the methodology used by Mann et al.
(1998) to calculate PC series of proxy networks over progressively
longer time intervals. In the Mann et al. (1998) implementation, the PCs
are computed over different time steps so that the maximum amount of
data can be used in the reconstruction.

For example, if a tree-ring network comprises 50 individual
chronologies that extend back to AD 1600 and only 10 of those 50 extend
to AD 1400 then calculating one set of PCs from 1400 to 1980 (the end of
the Mann et al. (1998) calibration period) would require the
elimination of 40 of the 50 chronologies available back to AD 1600. By
calculating PCs for two different intervals in this example (1400-1980
and 1600-1980) and performing the reconstruction in a stepwise fashion,
PCs of all 50 series that extend back to AD 1600 can be used in the
reconstruction back to AD 1600 with PCs of the remaining 10 chronologies
used to reconstruct the period from 1400-1600. The latter
misunderstanding led McIntyre and McKitrick (2003) to eliminate roughly
70% of the proxy data used by Mann et al. (1998) prior to AD 1600,
including 77 of the 95 proxy series used by Mann et al. (1998) prior to
AD 1500. This elimination of data gave rise to spurious, anomalous
warmth during the 15th century in their reconstruction, sharply at odds
with virtually all other empirical and model-based estimates of
hemispheric temperature trends in past centuries (see e.g. Jones and
Mann, 2004).



Poor Steve Mcentyre. Im sure he is right about something - ive jsut yet to see it.


Amazing. Simply amazing.

I asked about Mann et al (2008), and you jump back with a comment about Mann et al (1998).

If you had bothered to read the post I referenced, you would have seen what article I was referencing.
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Quoting pottery:
Post 429...
Looks like the entire Planet is becoming an Ice Cube.
We are all DOOM !


In Houston there is a billboard along 610 saying "my rum can beat up your rum..."

Sort of like what this blog has turned into...
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Quoting sunlinepr:


Interesting data.... I was Going through it, and found out that you can find the same data for many other countries
Link


Now that is a lot of data. Even have a folder of hurricanes. :)
Member Since: octombrie 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1570
Quoting pottery:
Post 429...
Looks like the entire Planet is becoming an Ice Cube.
We are all DOOM !


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Quoting txag91met:


Then why haven't we warmed up 2-3C this century? We have only warmed up 1-1.2C.


I also looked for graphs but found none in the free stuff. At least with the Dessler paper I could find the graph... with the correlation coefficient of 0.02.

Dessler paper

Show me. At least I can make my mind up with the linked paper... big error bars.

I don't know...
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Quoting sunlinepr:


Interesting data.... I was Going through it, and found out that you can find the same data for many other countries
Link

Yeah. I only came across that site recently.
Good stuff there.
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Post 429...
Looks like the entire Planet is becoming an Ice Cube.
We are all DOOM !
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting iceagecoming:
..lots of cold weather phenomena deleted...


Once again, these are weather events. Not especially surprising weather events in a La Nina year with an odd arctic weather pattern. As an example to counter yours, it was warmer in Greenland than a good chunk of the continental US, and some areas of the arctic were 20 F above normal.

Weather != climate. Cold snaps and heat waves, floods and droughts, active vs. inactive hurricane seasons are primarily weather events. Climate is long term usually starting off at decades and moving up.

Japan having a record snowfall for a year isn't all that interesting from a climatological standpoint. If it happens for 10 consecutive years, along with colder temps across region, then you've got something.
Member Since: octombrie 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1570
Quoting JFLORIDA:
420 - why don't you post current science on the matter. Instead of a email conservation.


What better and more relevant material than a debate between two prominent scientists who are experts in the field? Although that particular exchange was more of a school boy squabble, I would love to see more of that kind of communication between scientists of opposing opinions made public. That really stimulates thinking and new ideas.
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Heavy snow hits Japan; Toyota stops production

Tokyo, Jan 17 – Heavy snowfall blanketed many parts of Japan Monday, disrupting transportation and prompting Toyota Motor Corp to suspend operations at 12 of its factories.

More than 100 cm of snow fell in some areas along the Sea of Japan, disrupting rail and highway travel in central Japan.

The fresh snowfall pushed snow accumulation to 195 cm in Kitahiroshima in Hiroshima prefecture, 137 cm in Maniwa in Okayama prefecture and 91 cm in Onan in Shimane prefecture, all record highs for the locations in western Japan, the Japan Meteorological Agency said.

Nagoya, a major central city, also saw more than 10 cm of snow pile up for the first time in three years, the agency said.

Toyota decided to halt work at its 12 factories around the city because the snow could block smooth procurement of parts and make employees’ commutes difficult. The carmaker said it was to resume operations Tuesday.

Central Japan Railway Co said services on the Tokaido Shinkansen Line were delayed as bullet trains slowed because of snowfall between Hamamatsu and Shin-Osaka Station. A total of 75 trains ran up to two hours behind schedule, affecting about 67,000 people, the Kyodo News agency reported, citing the company.

The Tomei Expressway was also closed between Shizuoka and Toyota in Aichi prefecture earlier in the day, Kyodo said.

The agency said the weather system was expected to keep hovering around the country Monday but to gradually recede through Tuesday

http://www.indiatalkies.com/2011/01/heavy-snow-hits-japan-toyota-stops-production.html


Korea scrambles to cut electricity use


Consumption soars to record amid deep chill, fueling power shortage concerns


The government is introducing a series of contingency measures to cut power consumption as the cold spell drives up electricity demand to record levels.

With the cold snap gripping the nation, even in the warmer southern regions, electricity demand has shot up, setting new records three times already this month.

On Monday, the country’s electricity demand shot up to greater than 7.3 million kilowatt hours, breaking the previous record set on Jan. 10, which was about 400,000 kilowatt higher than the record of Jan 7.

With the rise in consumption, Korea’s generating capacity is being pushed to its limits, fueling concerns of a power shortage.

On Monday, the country’s reserve capacity was pushed down to 5.5 percent, far short of the 10 percent line considered to provide a sufficient buffer for times of high demand such as the summer and winter months.


http://www.koreaherald.com/business/Detail.jsp?newsMLId=20110118000729


Last month was the coldest December documented for the UK since nationwide records began 100 years ago, the Met Office has confirmed.

For central England, it was the second coldest December since 1659.


http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-12119329

Hmm?
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Quoting pottery:
http://docs.lib.noaa.gov/rescue/data_rescue_trinidad_and_tobago.html

here are loads of Weather information secured by NOAA as part of their Data Rescue program.
For Trinidad, going back to 1860 in some cases.


Interesting data.... I was Going through it, and found out that you can find the same data for many other countries
Link
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Quoting bappit:

Yeah, so you reposted something without knowing the source? How do you know if what you reposted is what it pretends to be?


It was not originally posted by me and thus is not my responsibility. I was simply asking a question, and reposted the image for reference. I personally find the entire idea of graphing temperature and CO2 back millions of years to be hilarious.
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Quoting JFLORIDA:
420 - why don't you post current science on the matter. Instead of a email conservation.


Seriously JFlorida, if you don't approve of it, ignore it. Someone else may be interested in it.
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Quoting Levi32:
Is this graph supposed to show a correlation between CO2 and global average temperature?



No. That's actually a pretty terrible graph. You also can't compare climate from 100's of millions of years ago to climate of today without taking into consideration items such as solar irradiance, land mass/water locations and area, volcanic activity, and atmospheric composition. To get an accurate comparison you'd have to adjust the data so that you're comparing apples to apples, not apples to oranges. The web actually has some decent starting info on paleoclimate, and there a some good books out there on the topic.

For a more accurate comparison, you may want to look at relatively recent paleoclimate history, such as the Vostok ice cores that go back about 400K years. You can even go to wikipedia where they have some decent graphs showing CO2/temperature (which shows a strong correlation). There are many papers based on ice core data that go into a lot of detail on the subject.
Member Since: octombrie 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1570
http://docs.lib.noaa.gov/rescue/data_rescue_trinidad_and_tobago.html

here are loads of Weather information secured by NOAA as part of their Data Rescue program.
For Trinidad, going back to 1860 in some cases.
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Quoting Levi32:


Read up about 10 posts above mine and you will see it.

Yeah, so you reposted something without knowing the source? How do you know if what you reposted is what it pretends to be?
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Who is Jerry Rolison?
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Concerning clouds...and if it hasn't been posted already, here is an interesting email discussion of cloud feedbacks between Roy Spencer and Andy Dessler. For anyone interested.
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Quoting bappit:

If you posted it, I would be surprised if it did. That caveat out of the way, I assume the source is not someone's photobucket account. You must come clean.


Read up about 10 posts above mine and you will see it.
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Quoting Levi32:
Is this graph supposed to show a correlation between CO2 and global average temperature?


If you posted it, I would be surprised if it did. That caveat out of the way, I assume the source is not someone's photobucket account. You must come clean.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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