2011: Year of the flood

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 03:21 PM GMT on ianuarie 21, 2011

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The year 2010 was one the worst years in world history for high-impact floods. But just three weeks into the new year, 2011 has already had an entire year's worth of mega-floods. I'll recap here six remarkable floods that have already occurred this year.

Brazil
Brazil suffered its deadliest natural disaster in history on January 11, when torrential rains inundated a heavily populated, steep-sloped area about 40 miles north of Rio de Janeiro. Flash floods and mudslides from the heavy rains have claimed 902 lives, including at least 357 in Nova Friburgo and 323 in Teresópolis. Rainfall amounts of approximately 300 mm (12 inches) fell in just a few hours in the hardest-hit regions. Damage estimates are currently $1.2 billion, and 13,000 were left homeless. Latest rainfall forecasts from the GFS model show the heaviest rains during the coming week staying well south of the Rio de Janeiro area, which will give the flood region time to dry out and recover.


Figure 1. Flooded stream in Teresópolis. Image credit: Wikipedia.

Australia Queensland
Australia's most expensive natural disaster in history is now the Queensland flood of 2010 - 2011, with a price tag now as high as $30 billion. At least 31 have been killed since December in the floods, and another 40 are missing. According to the Australian Bureau of Meteorology, in 2010 Australia had its wettest spring (September - November) since records began 111 years ago, with some sections of coastal Queensland receiving over 4 feet (1200 mm) of rain. Rainfall in Queensland and all of eastern Australia in December was the greatest on record, and the year 2010 was the rainiest year on record for Queensland. Queensland typically has its rainiest years when La Niña events occur, due to the much warmer than average ocean temperatures that occur along the coast. The BOM noted, "Previous strong La Niña events, such as those of 1974 and 1955, have also been associated with widespread and severe flooding in eastern Australia. Sea surface temperatures off the Queensland coast in recent months have also been at or near record levels." The BOM's annual summary also reported, "Sea surface temperatures in the Australian region during 2010 were the warmest value on record for the Australian region. Individual high monthly sea surface temperature records were also set during 2010 in March, April, June, September, October, November and December. Along with favourable hemispheric circulation associated with the 2010 La Niña, very warm sea surface temperatures contributed to the record rainfall and very high humidity across eastern Australia during winter and spring." Queensland has an area the size of Germany and France combined, and 3/4 of the region has been declared a disaster zone. The latest GFS precipitation forecast for the coming week shows new heavy rains of 3 - 5 inches can be expected over the extreme northern portion of Queensland, but the majority of the state will receive lesser rains that should not further aggravate the flooding situation.


Figure 2. The airport, the Bruce Highway, and large swaths of Rockhampton, Australia, went under water due to flooding from the Fitzroy River on January 9, 2011. The town of 75,000 was completely cut off by road and rail, and food, water and medicine had to be brought in by boat and helicopter. Image credit: NASA.

Australia Victoria
From January 12 - 14, extremely heavy rains over the southern Australian state of Victoria caused major flooding that killed one person and caused hundreds of millions in damage. Kevin Parkyn, a senior forecaster with the Bureau of Meteorology said "Victoria is experiencing one of its worst flood events in its history" after "a week in which rainfall totals have been smashed in parts of Victoria". Bureau of Meteorology senior forecaster Terry Ryan said "It's the worst flood in western Victoria in their history as far as our records go in terms of the depth of water and the number of places affected." According to atmospheric moisture expert Dr. Kevin Trenberth of the National Center for Atmospheric Research, extratropical storm systems like the one that affected Victoria get 70% of their moisture from the surrounding atmosphere, and 30% due to evaporation from the surface. Since the airmass that supplied Victoria with its flooding rains traveled over the already-flooded portions of Queensland to the north before reaching Victoria, the moisture from the Queensland floods contributed significantly to the Victoria floods. Little rain is predicted over Victoria during the coming week, fortunately.

100-year flood in Sri Lanka
As I reported in my previous post, at least 43 are dead and damage estimates are at $500 million in Sri Lanka, which suffered a 1-in-100 year flood this month.

South Africa
Heavy rains of up 345 mm (13.6") have fallen in South Africa so far this month, resulting in deadly floods that have killed 40 people. Seven of the country's nine provinces have been declared disaster zones. Agricultural damage alone from the floods is estimated at $145 million. Heavy rains and severe flooding have also affected neighboring Mozambique, where 13 people are dead and 13,000 homeless or suffering damaged homes. Neighboring Zimbabwe has seen its heaviest rains in 30 years in recent weeks, according to the nation's Civil Protection Unit, but severe flooding has not yet hit that nation. La Niña events commonly cause heavy rains in southern Africa. Sea surface temperatures off the east coast of South Africa were 0.2 - 0.4°C above average during December 2010--nowhere near record levels, but warm enough to contribute to enhanced rainfall.

Philippines
Very heavy rains since late December have triggered a major flooding disaster in the Philippines, where 40 are dead, 453,000 people displaced, and 1.2 million people affected. The heavy rains were caused when a cold front moved over the eastern Philippines and lingered for many days. Heavy rains are common in the Philippines during La Niña events, as unusually warm waters accumulate by the islands. This winter, the waters in the central Philippines (10N to 15N, 120E to 130E) were at the warmest levels in history--1.0°C above average during December. The exceptionally warm waters allowed more moisture than usual to evaporate into the air, enhancing rainfall.

Commentary
The year 2011 has begun with a remarkable number of high-impact floods world-wide, and much of the blame for this can be placed on the current La Niña event occurring in the Eastern Pacific. NOAA's Climate Prediction Center currently puts the La Niña event in the "strong" category, and whenever a La Niña or El Niño event reaches the strong category, major perturbations to global weather patterns occur. This typically results in record or near-record flooding in one or more regions of the globe. When one combines the impact of La Niña with the increase of global ocean temperatures of 0.5°C (0.9°F) over the past 50 years, which has put 4% more water vapor into the atmosphere since 1970, the result is a much increased chance of unprecedented floods. A 4% increase in atmospheric moisture may not sound like much, but it turns out that precipitation will increase by about 8% with that 4% moisture increase. Critically, it is the extreme rainfall events that tend to supply the increased rainfall. For example, (Groisman et al., 2004) found a 20% increase in very heavy (top 1%) precipitation events over the U.S. in the past century, and a 36% rise in cold season (October - April) "extreme" precipitation events (those in the 99.9% percentile--1 in 1000 events. These extreme rainfall events are the ones most likely to cause floods.

References
Groisman, P.Y., R.W. Knight, T.R. Karl, D.R. Easterling, B. Sun, and J.H. Lawrimore, 2004, "Contemporary Changes of the Hydrological Cycle over the Contiguous United States: Trends Derived from In Situ Observations," J. Hydrometeor., 5, 64.85.

Milly, P.C.D., R.T. Wetherald, K.A. Dunne, and T.L.Delworth, Increasing risk of great floods in a changing climate", Nature 415, 514-517 (31 January 2002) | doi:10.1038/415514a.

Santer, B.D., C. Mears, F. J. Wentz, K. E. Taylor, P. J. Gleckler, T. M. L. Wigley, T. P. Barnett, J. S. Boyle, W. Brüggemann, N. P. Gillett, S. A. Klein, G. A. Meehl, T. Nozawa, D. W. Pierce, P. A. Stott, W. M. Washington, and M. F. Wehner, 2007, "Identification of human-induced changes in atmospheric moisture content", PNAS 2007 104: 15248-15253.

Trenberth, K.E., J. Fasullo, and L. Smith, 2005: "Trends and variability in column-integrated atmospheric water vapor", Climate Dynamics 24, 741-758.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Hey, Gro! Been doing well. Caught up with schoolwork and stuff, but it's been going good. How about you?


Good to see you back Miami, and glad you're doing ok.
Member Since: octombrie 8, 2008 Posts: 14 Comments: 4553
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
I believe we'll see at least one Category 5 hurricane this season...potentially more.

What about you?


Another stranger, how you doing C?
Member Since: iulie 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26546
I believe we'll see at least one Category 5 hurricane this season...potentially more.

What about you?
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Quoting Grothar:


Hey, 09, How you been.
Hey, Gro! Been doing well. Caught up with schoolwork and stuff, but it's been going good. How about you?
Member Since: septembrie 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
543. Skyepony (Mod)
Australian ‘inland sea’ flood threatens towns


MELBOURNE: Australia’s flood crisis deepened on Saturday with a giant ‘inland sea’ threatening more communities in the southeast, as officials continued the grim search for bodies in worst-hit Queensland.

Sandbagging was underway in some villages in Victoria, where weeks of floods have affected as much as one-third of the state, with swollen rivers overflowing in 75 towns and flooding some 1,770 properties.

“We know that this is the most significant flooding in the north west of Victoria since records began... about 130 years ago,” a spokeswoman for the State Emergency Service told AFP. “We are still on alert for towns in the north of the state.”

Floodwaters which national broadcaster ABC described as a moving “inland sea” covering an area 90 kilometres (56 miles) long and 40 kilometres wide, were threatening towns around Swan Hill, some 300 kilometres northwest of Melbourne.

“In the actual Swan Hill township itself, we are very confident that the levee system around the town is built to a very high grade and will protect the township,” Mayor Greg Cruickshank told ABC radio. But rural and outlying areas “will have significant amount of inundation through them,” he said.

While thousands of people around the state have been urged to evacuate, emergency services warned that those people who choose to remain on their properties in the rural areas could be stranded by the floods. “A number of these communities will be isolated for days as this huge amount of floodwater comes through,” SES spokesman Kevin Monk said. more here
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
LOL, I like it.

It will definitely be an interesting season ahead. I currently find 1999 and 2008 as the best analogs for this upcoming season, albeit 1999 being a little less active than the numbers I released.


Hey, 09, How you been.
Member Since: iulie 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26546
541. Skyepony (Mod)
The drought is worsening in many parts of strife-torn Somalia, with herders reported to be moving into Mogadishu, the capital, with their livestock for the first time ever due to lack of pasture and water, the United Nations reported today. In the south-western Gedo region, where the situation is reportedly critical, water, food and medical aid are said to be the priority needs for the drought-affected population, the UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) said. The Horn of Africa nation, which has not had a functioning central government since 1991 and has been torn apart by decades of conflict and factional strife, is already facing a dire humanitarian crisis in which 3.2 million people, more than 40 per cent of the population, is in need of aid. According to field and media reports, many people are arriving on the outskirts of Mogadishu every day, mainly from Middle and Lower Shabelle regions. The exact number of those displaced by the drought is not yet available but recent UN High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) reports put the number at 12,000 at least. Some families have started selling their assets to get money for transport to refugee camps in neighbouring Kenya and Ethiopia. An inter-agency assessment is to be conducted in the southwest part of Mogadishu to assess humanitarian needs, including the number of people affected and priority areas of response. In response to the increased needs for both the host community and people displaced by drought as well as continued conflicts in the central regions, the UN World Food Programme (WFP) has scaled up its aid, adding 105,400 additional displaced and nearly 20,000 new beneficiaries from host communities for the January food distribution. WFP is currently targeting some 2.5 million people for food aid across Somalia, although 625,000 of those are in areas where operations are currently suspended due to pressure from Al-Shabaab Islamist militants in the south. In 2009, WFP reached 3.3 million people in Somalia with food supplies.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Here are a couple of scary facts:

1.) This hurricane season will be using the names from the hyperactive 2005 season.

2.) ENSO conditions will be very similar to the 2005 season.

3.) Sea Surface Temperatures most of the Atlantic basin are able to support a hurricane.

4.) High tropical cyclone numbers have been forecasted by CSU, TSR, and Miami (lol :P).

I do not believe this coming season will be a good one at all. :|
LOL, I like it.

It will definitely be an interesting season ahead. I currently find 1999 and 2008 as the best analogs for this upcoming season, albeit 1999 being a little less active than the numbers I released.
Member Since: septembrie 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
Quoting doorman79:


Bring it on! I got a lieutenant dan for em.


Better have a big box of chocolates, too!
Member Since: iulie 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26546
Quoting hydrus:
Probably with a medium to heavy gauge moral high ground jack setting not so firmly on the filthy holy rock bottom moral ground jack.:) ..Good evening C.K..


Okay, so how high did they jack it?


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where doom where all doom
Member Since: mai 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115252
Quoting BahaHurican:
I'm heading out of Starbucks in a few, so I'll get back wichu guys once I get home....



what kind of laptop do you have
Member Since: mai 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115252
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Here are a couple of scary facts:

1.) This hurricane season will be using the names from the hyperactive 2005 season.

2.) ENSO conditions will be very similar to the 2005 season.

3.) Sea Surface Temperatures most of the Atlantic basin are able to support a hurricane.

4.) High tropical cyclone numbers have been forecasted by CSU, TSR, and Miami (lol :P).

I do not believe this coming season will be a good one at all. :|


Bring it on! I got a lieutenant dan for em.
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534. Skyepony (Mod)
In continuing current explosions due to fossil fuel use.. this was local for me.. gas tanker hit by a pickup on 528 overpass, the then "exploding tanker" went over the side of the overpass, landing on SR3. I was up at KSC yesterday when this happened. Had to find another way home. The local news video has some insane pics in it.

Brevard County Fire-Rescue personnel, hazardous material teams and a Kennedy Space Center crew cleaned up a fatal tanker explosion at State Road 528 and State Road 3/North Courtenay Parkway on Merritt Island. Brevard County Fire rescue said a truck exploded on the State Road 528 overpass on top of Courtenay Parkway around 3:30 p.m. Friday. Fire dropped down onto two vehicles under the bridge, but none of those passengers was injured. The Florida Highway Patrol said the driver of the vehicle that exploded and the driver in a pickup truck died in the explosion. Bill Dressel, of Palm Bay, had just exited SR 528 and crossed the Barge Canal on State Road 3 when he looked up and saw flames fill his rearview mirror. "I saw nothing but flames behind me," he said. "It was massive, they had to be 20 feet in the air and rolling out, like it was being fed. It was crazy. I still have goosebumps talking about it. It kind of puts everything in perspective, had I gone a little slower on 528, would I have been engulfed in flames?" The FHP said the first vehicle leaked some sort of flammable fluid and Fire Rescue and crews from KSC cleaned up the spill. The contents of the tanker are not yet known, but the fire was extinguished. While the fire was burning, residents were asked to remain indoors within half a mile of the crash. Traffic was blocked on SR 528 and diverted to U.S. Highway 1 and Interstate 95 for several hours, but all the roadways except the overpass at Courtenay Parkway reopened late Friday, making a smooth detour for motorists. The bridge will be remain closed for repairs for a while, according to Kim Montes of the FHP. The Brevard County School Board said some students were delayed in getting home on their buses due to traffic congestion.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Here are a couple of scary facts:

1.) This hurricane season will be using the names from the hyperactive 2005 season.

2.) ENSO conditions will be very similar to the 2005 season.

3.) Sea Surface Temperatures most of the Atlantic basin are able to support a hurricane.

4.) High tropical cyclone numbers have been forecasted by CSU, TSR, and Miami (lol :P).

I do not believe this coming season will be a good one at all. :|
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting BahaHurican:
You do realize that in order to be all things to all men, u pretty much have to be God.... lol.... politicians can only pretend, which starts them off on the wrong foot honesty-wise... ;o)


True, but I know some folks that sure do think politicians of their beliefs are the next best thing!
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I'm heading out of Starbucks in a few, so I'll get back wichu guys once I get home....
Member Since: octombrie 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22357
Quoting doorman79:


O.k. I'll bite! You show me an honest politician in any country and I will show you Jesus!

Evening all :)
You do realize that in order to be all things to all men, u pretty much have to be God.... lol.... politicians can only pretend, which starts them off on the wrong foot honesty-wise... ;o)
Member Since: octombrie 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22357
Quoting BahaHurican:
atmo... that is Soooooo true.... lol



O.k. I'll bite! You show me an honest politician in any country and I will show you Jesus!

Evening all :)
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528. Skyepony (Mod)
Situation Update No. 11
On 22.01.2011 at 19:12 GMT+2

The death toll from floods and mudslides in Brazil's southeastern state of Rio de Janeiro has climbed to 785. Officials say another 400 people are missing. Last week's devastating mudslides were unleashed by days of heavy rains. Rivers of mud leveled houses, threw cars on top of buildings and left at least 6,000 people homeless. Another 8,000 were forced to move to temporary housing. Flooding struck several towns in the mountainous Serrana region north of the city of Rio de Janeiro. It is being described as one of Brazil's worst natural disasters. President Dilma Rousseff's government allocated some $460 million in emergency aid for the affected areas, but survivors have criticized authorities for not providing enough help. Landslides and floods are common in Brazil, often affecting poor communities where shacks are built on steep, unstable hillsides.
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527. Skyepony (Mod)
08P (06F) WILMA


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526. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)


Tropical Cyclone Anthony's track for the next 3 days.
Member Since: mai 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45731
525. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Darwin
Tropical Cyclone Bulletin
TROPICAL LOW
11:00 AM CST January 23 2011
=======================================

At 9:30 AM CST, Tropical Low (1001 hPa) located at 14.3S 128.8E, or about 75 kms west of Port Keats is reported as moving north at 3 knots.

The low is expected to move towards the west or northwest and may move over the northern Kimberley tomorrow. The low may intensify if it takes a more northerly track and remains over water.
Member Since: mai 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45731
atmo... that is Soooooo true.... lol

Member Since: octombrie 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22357
Quoting BahaHurican:
That's one of the reasons why Gray / Klotzbach had to make extensive revisions to their forecast model[s] a while back....

That's why I don't like the connection. In reality, some of the most ungodly people I can think of are Republicans, and some of the most genuinely saintly are Democrats.... I don't see why they should have to change... lol
Yet, among folks in this forum, and knowing them only by what they type, you might be surprised whom is "ungodly"...
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Quoting xcool:
129 days 2011 hurricane season



129 more days of GW LOL
Member Since: mai 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115252
HGW, do u have a forecast map 2 go with that?
Member Since: octombrie 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22357
Quoting atmoaggie:
The correlation was strong up until the current active period. Since '95 the QBO-hurricane activity link has been dubious, at best.
That's one of the reasons why Gray / Klotzbach had to make extensive revisions to their forecast model[s] a while back....

Quoting atmoaggie:
I really don't fit the mold, there. Presslord and I, both, but in different ways.

Back L8R.
That's why I don't like the connection. In reality, some of the most ungodly people I can think of are Republicans, and some of the most genuinely saintly are Democrats.... I don't see why they should have to change... lol
Member Since: octombrie 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22357
519. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Brisbane
Tropical Cyclone Bulletin
TROPICAL CYCLONE ANTHONY (11U)
11:00 AM EST January 23 2011
=========================================

At 10:00 AM EST, Tropical Cyclone Anthony, Category One (990 hPa) located 15.5S 148.9E, or 370 km east northeast of Cairns and 145 km northwest of Willis Island has 10 minute sustained winds of 40 knots with gusts of 55 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving east at 13 knots.

Gale Force Winds
=================
150 NM in northern quadrant
100 NM in southern quadrant

Dvorak Intensity: T3.0/3.0/D1.5/24HRS

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
12 HRS: 16.1S 151.8E - 45 knots (CAT 1)
24 HRS: 17.1S 154.8E - 55 knots (CAT 2)
48 HRS: 17.9S 157.3E - 55 knots (CAT 2)
72 HRS: 17.1S 156.7E - 50 knots (CAT 1)

Additional Information
=======================

Tropical Cyclone Anthony has developed rapidly during the morning under a more favorable upper atmospheric environment, while moving rapidly to the east away from the Australian coast. Radar images from Willis Island [to the southeast] suggest a tight low level circulation with peripheral observations on southern and southwest flank now suggesting gales.

System likely to intensify and move east-southeast during the short to medium
term under the influence of an upper trough over the Coral Sea. Curved band pattern suggest DT 3.0, MET 2.5 using DT as FT 3.0.

The next tropical cyclone bulletin will be issued at 7:00 AM UTC..
Member Since: mai 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45731
518. xcool
129 days 2011 hurricane season
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Quoting KoritheMan:


Though I'm unsure of how to actually predict it, you also neglected to mention the QBO (Quasi-Biennial Oscillation), which is a periodic oscillation in the zonal winds along the equator in the stratosphere. IIRC, when the negative phase of the QBO (low-level easterlies) is present, enhanced hurricane activity in the deep tropics usually results, and vise versa.
It's actually the other way around.

"Hurricanes are more frequent when the 30-hPa winds are westerly; in this phase the vertical wind shear in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere is reduced."

Impacts of the QBO on other atmospheric phenomena

The reason that I decided not to include the QBO into the extended outlook is because recent studies have revealed that the QBO no longer effects tropical cyclogenesis in the Atlantic as 'strongly' as before (say in the 1990's)...hence why CSU no longer uses it in their outlooks.

Member Since: septembrie 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
Central NC:

A SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM MAY AFFECT PORTIONS OF OUR REGION
TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY. THE TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THE
STORM WILL DETERMINE THE PREDOMINATE PRECIPITATION TYPE FOR OUR
REGION. THE CURRENT FORECAST IS FOR A STORM TRACK FROM THE GULF OF
MEXICO NORTHEAST ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
THIS WOULD BRING THE THREAT OF A SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM TO
WESTERN AND POSSIBLY CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA... INCLUDING MUCH OF
THE PIEDMONT.

IF THIS TRACK DEVIATES MORE INLAND... THEN LESS OF A WINTER STORM
IMPACT CAN BE EXPECTED WITH MORE RAIN INTO THE PIEDMONT. DETAILS
OF THE TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THE STORM CONTINUE TO VARY. IT WILL
LIKELY BE MONDAY BEFORE THE FORECAST CAN BE FINE TUNED.
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Quoting calusakat:


How did they...'hijack the moral high ground'?


Probably with a medium to heavy gauge moral high ground jack setting not so firmly on the filthy holy rock bottom moral ground jack.:) ..Good evening C.K..
Member Since: septembrie 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 21490
Quoting BahaHurican:
@ calusakat:

By implying that all "Godly" people are Republicans.... and that all "unGodly" people are Democrats...

I strongly subscribe to the American concept of separation of church and state, because I believe people's religious backgrounds and political positions don't necessarily match up. There are too many individual differences...
I really don't fit the mold, there. Presslord and I, both, but in different ways.

Back L8R.
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Quoting KoritheMan:


Though I'm unsure of how to actually predict it, you also neglected to mention the QBO (Quasi-Biennial Oscillation), which is a periodic oscillation in the zonal winds along the equator in the stratosphere. IIRC, when the negative phase of the QBO (low-level easterlies) is present, enhanced hurricane activity in the deep tropics usually results, and vise versa.
The correlation was strong up until the current active period. Since '95 the QBO-hurricane activity link has been dubious, at best.
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@ calusakat:

By implying that all "Godly" people are Republicans.... and that all "unGodly" people are Democrats...

I strongly subscribe to the American concept of separation of church and state, because I believe people's religious backgrounds and political positions don't necessarily match up. There are too many individual differences...
Member Since: octombrie 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22357
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
That's very true. Without the north Atlantic tripole, upward motion isn't focused as easily into the tropics. I'll fix that in a minute...


Though I'm unsure of how to actually predict it, you also neglected to mention the QBO (Quasi-Biennial Oscillation), which is a periodic oscillation in the zonal winds along the equator in the stratosphere. IIRC, when the negative phase of the QBO (low-level easterlies) is present, enhanced hurricane activity in the deep tropics usually results, and vise versa.
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Quoting BahaHurican:
LOL... personally I subcribe to the Creator vs the creators, BUT certainly the room for the alternative interpretations is there. It's IMO one of the reasons why the US has been able to exist in its current formation for so very long... a lot of room for personal interpretation and live and let live... it's also why I find the hijacking of the moral high ground by the polito-religious "right"; it reduces the flexibilty of the US to bring the best minds to bear. Sad.


How did they...'hijack the moral high ground'?


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Quoting KoritheMan:


I actually particularly like this idea.
LOL... personally I subcribe to the Creator vs the creators, BUT certainly the room for the alternative interpretations is there. It's IMO one of the reasons why the US has been able to exist in its current formation for so very long... a lot of room for personal interpretation and live and let live... it's also why I find the hijacking of the moral high ground by the polito-religious "right"; it reduces the flexibilty of the US to bring the best minds to bear. Sad.
Member Since: octombrie 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22357
Quoting KoritheMan:


One thing you didn't touch on was that, while record SSTs do indeed favor enhanced tropical activity, if the SSTs are too warm, we can lose the Atlantic tripole, which is also a rather large contributor to upward vertical motion and instability. This was a rather large part of why so little tropical activity was seen last year prior to late August.
That's very true. Without the north Atlantic tripole, upward motion isn't focused as easily into the tropics. I'll fix that in a minute...
Member Since: septembrie 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
Quoting BahaHurican:
Wow! Religion on the MAIN blog!!! and actually a well said comment, Jed. IMO half of the reason pple can't "see" God is because the pple who are supposed to be showing God to others, the Christians, are too busy projecting themselves rather than God. That's why I have a serious problem with people assuming that CHRISTIANS are automatically a part of the so-called Religious Right, or that American Christians are all Republican or Conservative in a political sense. (IMO, if political parties actually DID what they "say" they are going to do, the Democrats would sound more like Biblical Christians to me.... less judgemental, more willing to help others, etc.... lol) The reality is that being a Christian has nothing to do with your politics and IMO the best Christians are the ones who SHOW you their Christianity in the way they live instead of TELLING you how to live your life.... that's what Christ wanted from the very beginning.

Of course, the other half of pple not "seeing" God has to do with the fact that people use the behaviour of Christians (who has Jed stated, are not yet perfect) as an excuse to deny the existence of God..... ;o)

I think it's a lot easier to tell other people how Christians should behave, whether or not you are actually one.... and since this is a Weather Blog, perhaps I should "render unto Caesar" and discuss weather....

I haven't read far enough down the page to see how much impact this latest front has had on FL wx, but the back edge of the front is just getting to Nassau about now, and the temps haven't dipped hugely. It's been mostly cloudy all day, though, a grey "wintry" day in that sense. However, I am very glad not to see a 10-degree drop the likes of which we were seeing last month.... Hopefully things will stay in that optimal winter temp range... 77 by day, 66 by night.... lol


In his book, Mere Christianity, C. S. Lewis wrote , 'When a man who accepts the Christian doctrine lives unworthily of it, it is much clearer to say he is a bad Christian than to say he is not a Christian.'

I have found that the good Christians I have met did not have let on about their faith...they simply acted according to what their faith expected of them. Those who always made it a point to make me aware of their faith have usually disappointed me in how they treated others.

I never understood that until I read his book and then it all made sense.


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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
In case anyone is interested and missed it, I released my 2011 extended outlook for the Atlantic Hurricane Season yesterday in the early morning.

Blog Update

2011 Atlantic Hurricane Season Extended Outlook


One thing you didn't touch on was that, while record SSTs do indeed favor enhanced tropical activity, if the SSTs are too warm, we can lose the Atlantic tripole, which is also a rather large contributor to upward vertical motion and instability. This was a rather large part of why so little tropical activity was seen last year prior to late August.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
In case anyone is interested and missed it, I released my 2011 extended outlook for the Atlantic Hurricane Season yesterday in the early morning.

Blog Update

2011 Atlantic Hurricane Season Extended Outlook
Member Since: septembrie 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
Quoting BahaHurican:


- in a very literal, physiological sense every single person in the world was "CREATED" by somebodies [i.e. parents]. To me, the writers of the DoI were just being logical in so stating. Even for an atheist, therefore, this statement is more than a sop to religious convention. It is a recognition that by dint of one's humanity, one has automatically certain inbuilt rights.


I actually particularly like this idea.
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Quoting BahaHurican:
Wow! Religion on the MAIN blog!!! and actually a well said comment, Jed. IMO half of the reason pple can't "see" God is because the pple who are supposed to be showing God to others, the Christians, are too busy projecting themselves rather than God. That's why I have a serious problem with people assuming that CHRISTIANS are automatically a part of the so-called Religious Right, or that American Christians are all Republican or Conservative in a political sense. (IMO, if political parties actually DID what they "say" they are going to do, the Democrats would sound more like Biblical Christians to me.... less judgemental, more willing to help others, etc.... lol) The reality is that being a Christian has nothing to do with your politics and IMO the best Christians are the ones who SHOW you their Christianity in the way they live instead of TELLING you how to live your life.... that's what Christ wanted from the very beginning.



"Acquire a peaceful spirit and thousands around you will be saved."
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Quoting washingtonian115:
For some non-odd reason I think we'll be hearing this music on the weather channel this year:Their famous hurricane alert music href="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Xbxdyg5IvV0" target="_blank">Link


Considering they play it even during tropical storm landfalls (to my knowledge)...
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501. BahaHurican
10:36 PM GMT on ianuarie 22, 2011
Quoting KoritheMan:


This particular excerpt of the DoI only proves that the people of the time believed in god. Nothing more.
U realize the excerpt is open to much wider interpretation than u allow, to wit:

- most, if not all, religions impute the existence of mankind to some "Creator" being. The makers of the DoI imo were not trying to force their personal version of the Creator on other Americans. Remember these r the pple who had run AWAY from the state-mandated C of E....

- in a very literal, physiological sense every single person in the world was "CREATED" by somebodies [i.e. parents]. To me, the writers of the DoI were just being logical in so stating. Even for an atheist, therefore, this statement is more than a sop to religious convention. It is a recognition that by dint of one's humanity, one has automatically certain inbuilt rights.

The philosophical game is still wide open....

Member Since: octombrie 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22357
500. Xyrus2000
10:36 PM GMT on ianuarie 22, 2011
Long range GFS seems to be indicating some warmer temps coming to some of the midwest. They need a break from the minus sign in their weather forecasts. :)
Member Since: octombrie 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1521
499. BahaHurican
10:16 PM GMT on ianuarie 22, 2011
Quoting Jedkins01:


Well the Bible doesn't so much say to accept others beliefs. What it does say is to accept others though. .....

I have atheist friends, as much as I hope they will change, I don't reject them, because I am human like them, and I enjoy who they are as people.
Wow! Religion on the MAIN blog!!! and actually a well said comment, Jed. IMO half of the reason pple can't "see" God is because the pple who are supposed to be showing God to others, the Christians, are too busy projecting themselves rather than God. That's why I have a serious problem with people assuming that CHRISTIANS are automatically a part of the so-called Religious Right, or that American Christians are all Republican or Conservative in a political sense. (IMO, if political parties actually DID what they "say" they are going to do, the Democrats would sound more like Biblical Christians to me.... less judgemental, more willing to help others, etc.... lol) The reality is that being a Christian has nothing to do with your politics and IMO the best Christians are the ones who SHOW you their Christianity in the way they live instead of TELLING you how to live your life.... that's what Christ wanted from the very beginning.

Of course, the other half of pple not "seeing" God has to do with the fact that people use the behaviour of Christians (who has Jed stated, are not yet perfect) as an excuse to deny the existence of God..... ;o)

I think it's a lot easier to tell other people how Christians should behave, whether or not you are actually one.... and since this is a Weather Blog, perhaps I should "render unto Caesar" and discuss weather....

I haven't read far enough down the page to see how much impact this latest front has had on FL wx, but the back edge of the front is just getting to Nassau about now, and the temps haven't dipped hugely. It's been mostly cloudy all day, though, a grey "wintry" day in that sense. However, I am very glad not to see a 10-degree drop the likes of which we were seeing last month.... Hopefully things will stay in that optimal winter temp range... 77 by day, 66 by night.... lol
Member Since: octombrie 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22357
498. islander101010
10:01 PM GMT on ianuarie 22, 2011
surfline explained it this way the giant nw pacific stalled too far away from the north shore of oahu to hold the eddie the origional forecast was it to occlude closer. the sets that did come did not have enough 20ft waves in them to hold it. no eddie so far this winter la nina yrs a generally calmer in the nw pac.
Member Since: septembrie 11, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 4774
497. Melagoo
10:01 PM GMT on ianuarie 22, 2011
Amazing footage from Aussie flooding ...

Aussie flooding
Member Since: iulie 31, 2006 Posts: 19 Comments: 1579

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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