Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Missouri River flood hits unprecedented flow rates

Posted by: Dr. Jeff Masters, 03:18 PM GMT on iunie 17, 2011

The most expensive tornado/severe weather disaster in American history is the great May 21 - 26, 2011 storm that spawned the Joplin, Missouri EF-5 tornado. According to catastrophe modeling firm AIR Worldwide, insured damages from that storm will amount to $4 - $7 billion, the greatest damages ever for a spring severe weather outbreak. However, the damages from the huge, slow-moving low pressure system that spawned the Joplin tornado have not yet been fully realized. The powerful storm pumped huge quantities of warm, moisture-laden air from the Gulf of Mexico northwestwards into Montana, where the moisture condensed into record-breaking heavy rain and snow. In portions of eastern Montana, the storm brought a year's worth of precipitation in a week, swelling the tributaries of the Missouri River to unprecedented heights. Billings, Montana recorded 9.54" of precipitation in May, its single wettest month on record, and not far from its annual average precipitation of 14.5". A great 100-year flood has arrived along the Missouri River and its tributaries from Montana to Nebraska. Record spring rains, combined with snow melt from record or near-record winter and spring snows, brought the Missouri River at Williston, North Dakota to 30' today (June 17), two feet above the record crest set in 1912. Tributaries to the Missouri, such as the North Platte River in Nebraska, are also flooding at all-time record heights. With warm summer temperatures and 2 - 5" of rainfall expected over much of the area during the coming week, snow melt and rain runoff will swell area rivers even further, creating an even more dangerous flood.

Flooding along the Missouri River has already broken two levees and closed two portions of I-29, a key trucking route that extends from Kansas City through Iowa, South Dakota and North Dakota to the Canadian border. A 20-mile stretch between Council Bluffs and the Missouri Valley area is closed, as well as a 22-mile section in southwest Iowa and northwest Missouri, causing significant disruptions to the trucking industry.

Figure 1. Satellite image taken at 5:45pm CDT May 22, 2011, when the Joplin, Missouri tornado was occurring. The counter-clockwise flow of air around the spiraling low pressure system that caused the Joplin tornado drew large quantities of Gulf of Mexico air into Montana, creating record-breaking rains. Image credit: NASA/GSFC.

Figure 2. Levee breach along the Missouri River levee L-575 near Hamburg, Iowa, on June 14, 2011. The town of Hamburg is being protected by a new temporary levee. So far, only farmland has flooded. Image credit: U.S. Army Corps of Engineers.

Army Corps cranks up water releases on Missouri River dams to double the previous record
Six flood control dams lie on the Missouri River between eastern Montana and Sioux City, Iowa; these dams were built between 1940 and 1964. As water from this spring's record precipitation have flowed into the Missouri River basin, the reservoirs behind these dams have risen to record levels. On May 31, the Army Corps of Engineers was forced to open the the spillway gates on the massive Garrison Dam, 50 miles northwest of Bismark, North Dakota. It was the first time since the dam was built in 1955 that the spillway gates were opened. (Remarkably, during 2007 and early 2008, Lake Sakakawea water levels behind Garrison Dam were the lowest since the dam was built--46 feet below the current level--thanks to a decade-long drought.) On June 3, as the record flood progressed downstream, the spillway gates on the Big Bend Dam opened for the first time since that dam was completed in 1964. This week, the Army Corps of Engineers increased water flowing through all six dams to more than double the previous highs set during the floods of 1975 and 1997. The flow rates are now a massive 150,000 cubic feet per second, 1.5 times greater than the typical flow of Niagara Falls. These extreme flow rates will need to be maintained into at least mid-August, and are expected to severely strain levees on the Missouri River as it flows through North Dakota, South Dakota, Nebraska, Iowa, Missouri, and Kansas. According to a press conference put on by NWS and the Army Corps last week, the Missouri River flood control system is based on an 1881 estimate of the maximum amount of water an extreme flood season could generate--40 million acre-feet of water during the spring and summer flood season. However, this year's flood is expected to pump 42 - 43 million acre feet of water into the system, stressing it beyond its designed limits. In May alone, the Missouri River basin just upstream from Sioux City, Iowa, received 10.2 million acre feet of water, more than 25% above the previous May record of 7.2 million acre feet set in 1995. Additional levee failures along the Missouri are likely this summer, particularly if widespread heavy summer rains occur.

Figure 3. The Oahe Reservoir Stilling Basin north of Pierre, S.D., on June 5, 2011. The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers increased the water releases from the Oahe Dam into the stilling basin to a record 147,000 cubic feet per second (cfs) of water release on June 8. The previous record was 59,000 cfs in 1997. Image credit: U.S. Army Corps of Engineers/ Carlos J. Lazo

Four-day period of critical fire conditions expected in the Southwest
Powerful southwest winds of 20 - 30 mph, gusting to 40 mph will continue through Saturday in Eastern Arizona and western New Mexico, making progress containing the region's severe fires difficult. Even worse conditions are begin predicted for Sunday, when NOAA's Storm Prediction Center forecasts forecasts that wind gusts up to 50 mph will occur. With hot conditions and humidity values below 10%, these are likely to be among the worst fire conditions the region has seen this year.

While the exceptional drought gripping Arizona is largely to blame for terrible fire conditions this year, unusually windy and dry weather has also been a significant factor. These windy and dry conditions have been caused, in part, by a stronger-than-average jet stream over the region. According to the National Weather Service in Phoenix, the period April-May 2011 was the 11th windiest and had the 6th lowest average relative humidity value on record in Phoenix. Combined, it was the 3rd windiest-driest April-May on record.

Our weather historian, Christopher C. Burt, has an interesting post on The Worst Wild Fires in World History. Arizona's Wallow Fire, at 750 square miles, has a long way to go before matching the largest fire in U.S. history, the great Peshtigo Fire of 1871. That fire burned 5,938 square miles of Wisconsin and Michigan.

Tallahassee hits 105°, their hottest day on record
On Wednesday June 15 at 307 PM EDT, the Tallahassee Regional Airport in Florida recorded a high temperature of 105 degrees. This temperature breaks the previous all time high temperature record for Tallahassee of 104 degrees, set most recently on June 20th 1933. The period of record for Tallahassee dates back to 1892.

The Atlantic is quiet
The Atlantic is quiet, with no tropical cyclones predicted over the next seven days by the reliable computer models. However, the GFS model predicts that moisture will begin increasing early next week in the western Gulf of Mexico, and a tropical disturbance could form next week in the Gulf, bringing much-needed rains to the coast of Texas. Droughts of the magnitude of the current Texas drought are hard to break, though, so I'd like to see more support from the models before believing in this forecast.

Have a great weekend everyone! I'll be back Monday with a new post.

Jeff Masters

ABANDONED For Wetland Project in Flood (BEME)

Another old farmstead,within the wetlands 'project'..near Highway 2 [to Nebraska City,Nebraska]..Water's getting higher. [photo taken Wednesday afternoon]

Won't be Open Much Longer (Nikongranny)

Highway 2 east of Nebraska City will be closing very soon.

Trying to Keep Ahead (Nikongranny)

of the approaching water. Crews working frantically building this earth berm to keep the advancing Missouri River out of Hamburg.

Categories: Flood

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1251. TropicalAnalystwx13 10:06 PM GMT on iunie 19, 2011
45% on day 2 could potentially mean that tomorrow will get upgraded to a High risk for severe weather...I would, it appears there is going to be a major severe weather/tornado outbreak. Member Since: iulie 6, 2010 Posts: 89 Comments: 25330

1253. TaylorSelseth 10:12 PM GMT on iunie 19, 2011
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13: 45% on day 2 could potentially mean that tomorrow will get upgraded to a High risk for severe weather...I would, it appears there is going to be a major severe weather/tornado outbreak. We're not supposed to get much severe weather from that storm here in Fargo, but we are supposed to get LOTS of rain. 100% chance of rain on Wed. Member Since: august 29, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 324

1255. FloorManBroward 10:21 PM GMT on iunie 19, 2011
= Member Since: august 25, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 61

1257. Neapolitan 10:22 PM GMT on iunie 19, 2011
Quoting LloydBentsen: Where would one find the most up-to-date info on wild fires in TX? http://www.inciweb.org/state/45/ Member Since: noiembrie 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 11166

1258. mikeylikesyouall 10:24 PM GMT on iunie 19, 2011
That would be nice if a small system formed in the GOM, in the what next 4 or 5 days or so, they need the rain badly so does poor florida dam wish i could have sent the 5 inches or rain wev'e recieved here over the past few days.So NOAA has predicted that Beatriz will max out a weak cat 1 storm, that is what they predicted with the first storm Adrian, whoops.I'm not saying Beatriz will follow suit the conditions aren't quite the same for that to take place. However, that is 1 area Noaa needs to improve on when these storms go into a rapid intensifacation mode, send up the aircraft they need to stay there send a refueling plane there, cause alot can happen in 6 hours lol.I couldn't imagine living say on the gulf coast and seeing or hearing of a tropical storm is in the GOM and wake up the next morning to find a cat 4 storm on your doorstep that would make a landfall in 3 hours or so to a major populated area, how the heck would get that many people out of harms way in a short time frame like that.Your welcome to send your feedback i know its a worse case scenario but it can happen given the right environmental conditions. Member Since: mai 23, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 80

1260. islander101010 10:26 PM GMT on iunie 19, 2011
be nice if they had some kind of contest every week for predictions for the following week post on a board with a timeline this week has possibilities. when we get into late july the board will light up Member Since: septembrie 11, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 2968

1261. bluheelrtx 10:29 PM GMT on iunie 19, 2011
Quoting txag91met: Huge fire NW of my house ( I live NW side of Houston, TX). I have another angle of probably the same fire, but I can't upload it from my iPad at the moment. It's just slightly west of north from me and I thought it was a storm at first. Scary, since my project for the day has been to mow or cut down all potentially flammable vegetation. I'm just glad this one is downwind. Member Since: noiembrie 8, 2006 Posts: 5 Comments: 220

1262. deepeasttexas 10:32 PM GMT on iunie 19, 2011
Please pray for rain in east texas. Having gone through Katrina, Rita, and Ike I never thought I would want a hurricane but our forestry people have exhausted all resources and are waiting for help from other states. The national Forest is burning on both sides of us, and homes are being evacuated as we speak. Thousands of acres.it is scary... Member Since: septembrie 11, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 5

1263. deepeasttexas 10:34 PM GMT on iunie 19, 2011
the most up to date east texasfire reports are KTRE, The Lufkin Daily News, and The Wunderblog radar report. wundeground to the rescue again! Member Since: septembrie 11, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 5

1264. CybrTeddy 10:34 PM GMT on iunie 19, 2011
I'm actually wishing for a tropical storm in the Gulf, one that provides loads of much needed rain for Texas and I'm really hoping the GFS pans out. Texas is like hell on Earth right now from what I'm hearing. When its done, maybe a weak Bret can hit Florida too, we need rain too though we're starting to get ours, particularly inland ;) Member Since: iulie 8, 2005 Posts: 253 Comments: 20260

1266. clwstmchasr 10:36 PM GMT on iunie 19, 2011
Quoting CanesfanatUT: What's going on everyone? We still thinking mischief could happen this week down in the Carib/BOC? What's Levi's view now? (Haven't read his blog since about Wed.) All is quiet in the Atlantic region. Nothing on the horizon for the next 5-7 days. After that, the GFS is hinting at something in the BOC or Western GOM. Still too far out to get excited about. Member Since: iulie 29, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 2758

1267. beell 10:37 PM GMT on iunie 19, 2011
I don't think you could line up 3-4" of rain (5 day QPF-12Z Sunday through 12Z Friday) to all fall in the immediate vicinity of the Missouri River any better than this. In any case, most of what falls seems certain to fall within the drainage basin. click graphics to open in new window Member Since: septembrie 11, 2007 Posts: 125 Comments: 12884

1268. TropicalAnalystwx13 10:39 PM GMT on iunie 19, 2011
Tropical Weather Poll - Atlantic basin Question: When will the first tropical storm of the 2011 Atlantic hurricane season develop? A. June 20 - July 1 B. July 2 - July 14 C. July 15 - July 27 D. July 28 - August 11 E. Sometime afterwards ------------------------------------------------- ---- Tropical Weather Poll - Pacific basin Question: What will Beatriz peak as? A. Tropical Storm (40-70 mph) B. Category 1 hurricane (75-90 mph) C. Category 2 hurricane (95-110 mph) D. Category 3 hurricane (115-130 mph) E. Higher than 130 mph (Category 4/5) My picks are in bold. Member Since: iulie 6, 2010 Posts: 89 Comments: 25330

1271. StAugustineFL 10:40 PM GMT on iunie 19, 2011
Quoting CybrTeddy: I'm actually wishing for a tropical storm in the Gulf, one that provides loads of much needed rain for Texas and I'm really hoping the GFS pans out. Texas is like hell on Earth right now from what I'm hearing. When its done, maybe a weak Bret can hit Florida too, we need rain too though we're starting to get ours, particularly inland ;) Hope Texas gets theirs soon. They need it more than FL. From the Jax NWS: .LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... ON THURSDAY THE RIDGE IS PUSHED SOUTH AS AN UPPER TROUGH AMPLIFIES OVER THE EASTERN U.S. A DEEP AND MOIST SW FLOW SHOULD BRING DECENT CHANCES OF MUCH NEEDED RAIN THURSDAY THRU SATURDAY. GFS MODEL CONTINUES TO SHOW ABUNDANT MOISTURE WITH PWATS EXCEEDING 2 INCHES DURING THE PERIOD. MAX TEMPS WILL DROP A NOTCH INTO LOW/MID 90S. Member Since: martie 8, 2011 Posts: 1 Comments: 574

1272. Hurricanes101 10:40 PM GMT on iunie 19, 2011
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13: Tropical Weather Poll - Atlantic basin Question: When will the first tropical storm of the 2011 Atlantic hurricane season develop? A. June 20 - July 1 B. July 2 - July 14 C. July 15 - July 27 D. July 28 - August 11 E. Sometime afterwards My pick is in bold. I will go with A, but barely Member Since: martie 10, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 6902

1274. PlazaRed 10:42 PM GMT on iunie 19, 2011
Evening Everybody, Heres an interesting article from Al Jazzera, that Nea might like to read and anybody else who followed the problem in the Japan nuclear disaster, they have some interesting new facts and info on the non future of the problem that will get worse. I cant link it to you but copy and paste it if you can get this where ever you might be! http://english.aljazeera.net/indepth/features/201 1/06/201161664828302638.html I find this all very disturbing. Member Since: ianuarie 21, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1442

1275. j2008 10:43 PM GMT on iunie 19, 2011
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13: Tropical Weather Poll - Atlantic basin Question: When will the first tropical storm of the 2011 Atlantic hurricane season develop? A. June 20 - July 1 B. July 2 - July 14 C. July 15 - July 27 D. July 28 - August 11 E. Sometime afterwards My pick is in bold. Sometime from A-B I'm thinking June 28 - July 10. Member Since: decembrie 19, 2008 Posts: 1 Comments: 204

1276. TropicalAnalystwx13 10:44 PM GMT on iunie 19, 2011
I added a part for Beatriz in my poll. Member Since: iulie 6, 2010 Posts: 89 Comments: 25330

1277. LloydBentsen 10:44 PM GMT on iunie 19, 2011
Here's a video that was just sent to me of the fire just north of Huntsville, TX. Member Since: august 30, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 29

1279. hotrods 10:47 PM GMT on iunie 19, 2011
Hi everyone, NWS in Melbourne says 40% chance of rain here on the space coast, not a drop today, geeze! we get a better chance at 20% Member Since: octombrie 22, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 89

1280. aquak9 10:47 PM GMT on iunie 19, 2011
rain deficit- means how far away we are from expected, or average, right? I'd like to know where these so-called "averages" come from, because we've been in the deficit for so long, it seems like it should be the new "normal". Discounting Faye, which would be outlying data (exceeding 3SD), Florida's been under a deficit like for at least a decade it seems. But really, it's become normal. Member Since: august 13, 2005 Posts: 163 Comments: 25008

1281. bohonkweatherman 10:47 PM GMT on iunie 19, 2011
Quoting CybrTeddy: I'm actually wishing for a tropical storm in the Gulf, one that provides loads of much needed rain for Texas and I'm really hoping the GFS pans out. Texas is like hell on Earth right now from what I'm hearing. When its done, maybe a weak Bret can hit Florida too, we need rain too though we're starting to get ours, particularly inland ;) I have lived here most of my life except for 4 years in Louisiana and I am getting up there in age I have never witnessed weather like this. Where I am is in New housing area that backs up to Farms, so the trees are small and the spaces are wide open. The winds can get 30 to 40 mph quite often, humidity is high early in the morning but by early afternoon down pretty low, the temps are ranging from upper 70s to mid 80's for lows and 100 to near 110 for highs. If you get under a big tree and dont go in sun on windy day you will be ok but the heat is brutal and I have lived in Texas since the 50's. We have had some years when it never reached 100. I just past 20 days of over 100 this year and Summer starts Tuesday. For a long time clouds are rare and when we get a quarter of an inch it seems like so much more. For the past week my average high has been 105. I am not seeing too many people outside. The all time record for number of 100 degree days here is 69, but that year it was from July to Sept. We had several days in the past months where we had a decent chance of rain but very little showed up on the radars and very few lucky people received rain. Member Since: iulie 5, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1348

1283. Hurricanes101 10:49 PM GMT on iunie 19, 2011
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13: I added a part for Beatriz in my poll. A and B Member Since: martie 10, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 6902

1284. sunlinepr 10:50 PM GMT on iunie 19, 2011
Member Since: august 2, 2010 Posts: 19 Comments: 8447

1285. CybrTeddy 10:51 PM GMT on iunie 19, 2011
1270. Just flag and ignore people, flag & ignore. Member Since: iulie 8, 2005 Posts: 253 Comments: 20260

1288. sunlinepr 10:53 PM GMT on iunie 19, 2011
Member Since: august 2, 2010 Posts: 19 Comments: 8447

1290. TropicalAnalystwx13 10:53 PM GMT on iunie 19, 2011
Quoting Hurricanes101: I agree with you on both A and A I picked B and B. Member Since: iulie 6, 2010 Posts: 89 Comments: 25330

1291. KoritheMan 10:55 PM GMT on iunie 19, 2011
Quoting PlazaRed: Evening Everybody, Heres an interesting article from Al Jazzera, that Nea might like to read and anybody else who followed the problem in the Japan nuclear disaster, they have some interesting new facts and info on the non future of the problem that will get worse. I cant link it to you but copy and paste it if you can get this where ever you might be! http://english.aljazeera.net/indepth/features/201 1/06/201161664828302638.html I find this all very disturbing. Copy/pasting the link doesn't seem to work. It just brings me to the home page. Member Since: martie 7, 2007 Posts: 410 Comments: 15457

1292. HadesGodWyvern 10:55 PM GMT on iunie 19, 2011
India Meteorological Department Tropical Cyclone Advisory #19 DEPRESSION BOB02-2011 23:30 PM IST June 19 2011 =================================== SUBJECT: Depression Over Jharkhand And Adjoining Areas Of Chhattisgarh. At 18:00 PM UTC, Depression BOB02-2011 over Jharkhand moved westwards and lay centred at 2330 hours IST of yesterday, 19 June 2011 over Jharkhand and adjoining areas of Chhattisgarh near 23.5N 84.5E, or about 130 km east-north east of Ambikapur. The system would move west-northwestwards and weaken gradually. Member Since: mai 24, 2006 Posts: 43 Comments: 36688

1293. Hurricanes101 10:55 PM GMT on iunie 19, 2011
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13: I picked B and B. I meant A and B, oops Member Since: martie 10, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 6902

1294. HadesGodWyvern 10:55 PM GMT on iunie 19, 2011
Philippines Atmospheric Geophysical Astronomical Services And Administration Tropical Cyclone Bulletin #13 TROPICAL DEPRESSION EGAY 5:00 AM PhST June 20 2011 ======================================= Tropical Depresssion "EGAY" has moved Westward and is now moving away from the country. At 4:00 AM PhST, Tropical Depression Egay located at 19.7�N 120.8�E or 160 km northwest of Aparri, Cagayan has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots. The depression is reported as moving west northwest at 10 knots. Signal Warnings ================= Signal Warning #1 ------------- Luzon Region ----------- 1. Northern Cagayan 2. Calayan 3. Babuyan Group of Is. 4. Batanes Group of Is. 5. Apayao 6. Ilocos Norte Additional Information ====================== Public Storm Warning Signals elsewhere are now lowered. Residents in low lying and mountainous areas under signal # 1 are alerted against possible flash floods and landslides. TD "EGAY" is expected to enhance the southwest monsoon and will bring rains over the western section of Luzon and of Visayas. Gale Warning is issued over the western seaboards of Luzon and Visayas and the eastern seaboard of Luzon. The public and the disaster coordinating councils concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next bulletin to be issued at 11 AM today and the hourly updates. Member Since: mai 24, 2006 Posts: 43 Comments: 36688

1295. CybrTeddy 10:56 PM GMT on iunie 19, 2011
Quoting KoritheMan: Copy/pasting the link doesn't seem to work. It just brings me to the home page. There's a space between the two 11's in 2011, backspace it and you'll be fine. Member Since: iulie 8, 2005 Posts: 253 Comments: 20260

1296. Grothar 10:56 PM GMT on iunie 19, 2011
Quoting DeerfieldBeachGuy: And yet another day goes by when it rains everywhere but here. Deerfield Beach did not get in on any of the thunderstorm action today. So disappointing! Storms look to be consolidating out in the Everglades now and it looks the coast is clearing out. The drought continues... 11 raindrops in Coral Ridge Member Since: iulie 17, 2009 Posts: 56 Comments: 19546

1297. aquak9 10:57 PM GMT on iunie 19, 2011
here's the link- just had to tweak the code a little Link Member Since: august 13, 2005 Posts: 163 Comments: 25008

1298. Grothar 10:58 PM GMT on iunie 19, 2011
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13: I picked B and B. Really sure on that one, eh. You guys sound confident. Member Since: iulie 17, 2009 Posts: 56 Comments: 19546

1299. TropicalAnalystwx13 11:00 PM GMT on iunie 19, 2011
Quoting Grothar: Really sure on that one, eh. You guys sound confident. Oh, by no means am I confident, considering that things can change in the blink of an eye. It is just my guess. Member Since: iulie 6, 2010 Posts: 89 Comments: 25330

1300. presslord 11:00 PM GMT on iunie 19, 2011
we had your smoke up here yesterday Aqua...it was awful....for just one day....I can't imagine how bad it's been for y'all... Member Since: august 13, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 10377

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