Missouri River flood hits unprecedented flow rates

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 03:18 PM GMT on iunie 17, 2011

Share this Blog
8
+

The most expensive tornado/severe weather disaster in American history is the great May 21 - 26, 2011 storm that spawned the Joplin, Missouri EF-5 tornado. According to catastrophe modeling firm AIR Worldwide, insured damages from that storm will amount to $4 - $7 billion, the greatest damages ever for a spring severe weather outbreak. However, the damages from the huge, slow-moving low pressure system that spawned the Joplin tornado have not yet been fully realized. The powerful storm pumped huge quantities of warm, moisture-laden air from the Gulf of Mexico northwestwards into Montana, where the moisture condensed into record-breaking heavy rain and snow. In portions of eastern Montana, the storm brought a year's worth of precipitation in a week, swelling the tributaries of the Missouri River to unprecedented heights. Billings, Montana recorded 9.54" of precipitation in May, its single wettest month on record, and not far from its annual average precipitation of 14.5". A great 100-year flood has arrived along the Missouri River and its tributaries from Montana to Nebraska. Record spring rains, combined with snow melt from record or near-record winter and spring snows, brought the Missouri River at Williston, North Dakota to 30' today (June 17), two feet above the record crest set in 1912. Tributaries to the Missouri, such as the North Platte River in Nebraska, are also flooding at all-time record heights. With warm summer temperatures and 2 - 5" of rainfall expected over much of the area during the coming week, snow melt and rain runoff will swell area rivers even further, creating an even more dangerous flood.

Flooding along the Missouri River has already broken two levees and closed two portions of I-29, a key trucking route that extends from Kansas City through Iowa, South Dakota and North Dakota to the Canadian border. A 20-mile stretch between Council Bluffs and the Missouri Valley area is closed, as well as a 22-mile section in southwest Iowa and northwest Missouri, causing significant disruptions to the trucking industry.


Figure 1. Satellite image taken at 5:45pm CDT May 22, 2011, when the Joplin, Missouri tornado was occurring. The counter-clockwise flow of air around the spiraling low pressure system that caused the Joplin tornado drew large quantities of Gulf of Mexico air into Montana, creating record-breaking rains. Image credit: NASA/GSFC.



Figure 2. Levee breach along the Missouri River levee L-575 near Hamburg, Iowa, on June 14, 2011. The town of Hamburg is being protected by a new temporary levee. So far, only farmland has flooded. Image credit: U.S. Army Corps of Engineers.

Army Corps cranks up water releases on Missouri River dams to double the previous record
Six flood control dams lie on the Missouri River between eastern Montana and Sioux City, Iowa; these dams were built between 1940 and 1964. As water from this spring's record precipitation have flowed into the Missouri River basin, the reservoirs behind these dams have risen to record levels. On May 31, the Army Corps of Engineers was forced to open the the spillway gates on the massive Garrison Dam, 50 miles northwest of Bismark, North Dakota. It was the first time since the dam was built in 1955 that the spillway gates were opened. (Remarkably, during 2007 and early 2008, Lake Sakakawea water levels behind Garrison Dam were the lowest since the dam was built--46 feet below the current level--thanks to a decade-long drought.) On June 3, as the record flood progressed downstream, the spillway gates on the Big Bend Dam opened for the first time since that dam was completed in 1964. This week, the Army Corps of Engineers increased water flowing through all six dams to more than double the previous highs set during the floods of 1975 and 1997. The flow rates are now a massive 150,000 cubic feet per second, 1.5 times greater than the typical flow of Niagara Falls. These extreme flow rates will need to be maintained into at least mid-August, and are expected to severely strain levees on the Missouri River as it flows through North Dakota, South Dakota, Nebraska, Iowa, Missouri, and Kansas. According to a press conference put on by NWS and the Army Corps last week, the Missouri River flood control system is based on an 1881 estimate of the maximum amount of water an extreme flood season could generate--40 million acre-feet of water during the spring and summer flood season. However, this year's flood is expected to pump 42 - 43 million acre feet of water into the system, stressing it beyond its designed limits. In May alone, the Missouri River basin just upstream from Sioux City, Iowa, received 10.2 million acre feet of water, more than 25% above the previous May record of 7.2 million acre feet set in 1995. Additional levee failures along the Missouri are likely this summer, particularly if widespread heavy summer rains occur.


Figure 3. The Oahe Reservoir Stilling Basin north of Pierre, S.D., on June 5, 2011. The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers increased the water releases from the Oahe Dam into the stilling basin to a record 147,000 cubic feet per second (cfs) of water release on June 8. The previous record was 59,000 cfs in 1997. Image credit: U.S. Army Corps of Engineers/ Carlos J. Lazo

Four-day period of critical fire conditions expected in the Southwest
Powerful southwest winds of 20 - 30 mph, gusting to 40 mph will continue through Saturday in Eastern Arizona and western New Mexico, making progress containing the region's severe fires difficult. Even worse conditions are begin predicted for Sunday, when NOAA's Storm Prediction Center forecasts forecasts that wind gusts up to 50 mph will occur. With hot conditions and humidity values below 10%, these are likely to be among the worst fire conditions the region has seen this year.

While the exceptional drought gripping Arizona is largely to blame for terrible fire conditions this year, unusually windy and dry weather has also been a significant factor. These windy and dry conditions have been caused, in part, by a stronger-than-average jet stream over the region. According to the National Weather Service in Phoenix, the period April-May 2011 was the 11th windiest and had the 6th lowest average relative humidity value on record in Phoenix. Combined, it was the 3rd windiest-driest April-May on record.

Our weather historian, Christopher C. Burt, has an interesting post on The Worst Wild Fires in World History. Arizona's Wallow Fire, at 750 square miles, has a long way to go before matching the largest fire in U.S. history, the great Peshtigo Fire of 1871. That fire burned 5,938 square miles of Wisconsin and Michigan.

Tallahassee hits 105°, their hottest day on record
On Wednesday June 15 at 307 PM EDT, the Tallahassee Regional Airport in Florida recorded a high temperature of 105 degrees. This temperature breaks the previous all time high temperature record for Tallahassee of 104 degrees, set most recently on June 20th 1933. The period of record for Tallahassee dates back to 1892.

The Atlantic is quiet
The Atlantic is quiet, with no tropical cyclones predicted over the next seven days by the reliable computer models. However, the GFS model predicts that moisture will begin increasing early next week in the western Gulf of Mexico, and a tropical disturbance could form next week in the Gulf, bringing much-needed rains to the coast of Texas. Droughts of the magnitude of the current Texas drought are hard to break, though, so I'd like to see more support from the models before believing in this forecast.

Have a great weekend everyone! I'll be back Monday with a new post.

Jeff Masters

ABANDONED For Wetland Project in Flood (BEME)
Another old farmstead,within the wetlands 'project'..near Highway 2 [to Nebraska City,Nebraska]..Water's getting higher. [photo taken Wednesday afternoon]
ABANDONED For Wetland Project in Flood
Won't be Open Much Longer (Nikongranny)
Highway 2 east of Nebraska City will be closing very soon.
Won't be Open Much Longer
Trying to Keep Ahead (Nikongranny)
of the approaching water. Crews working frantically building this earth berm to keep the advancing Missouri River out of Hamburg.
Trying to Keep Ahead

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 1447 - 1397

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31Blog Index

Beatrice appears to be consolidating herself very well.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting cycleranger:
Evening all. Look...

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
933 PM CDT SUN JUN 19 2011

.DISCUSSION...
IR SATELLITE LOOP INDICATES TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM WESTERN CUBA
TO THE YUCATAN STARTING TO STREAM NORTHWARD. THIS EVENING
SOUNDINGS INDICATE SOME COOLING NEAR 850 MB THE LAST 24 HOURS.


...it's finally happening!


This means rain...maybe for Texas???
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting washingtonian115:
Well Maybe it's good to be an odd ball sometimes.I mean to me and from what I've seen I'm the only washingtonian that's currently active here.Awesome!


I live in Clarendon. (I presume you are in DC??)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting centex:
Thanks to all you guys praying for Texas rain. Most Texas droughts end in a flood comes with the territory. Here is burn ban counties since most have seen size of exceptional drought.




No luck Firing off the Works for the 4th. (Trying saying that 3 times fast). Found it surprising when a relative, who works with the local fire department, was told...2 weeks ago...there would be no Fireworks tolerated.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Evening all. Look...

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
933 PM CDT SUN JUN 19 2011

.DISCUSSION...
IR SATELLITE LOOP INDICATES TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM WESTERN CUBA
TO THE YUCATAN STARTING TO STREAM NORTHWARD. THIS EVENING
SOUNDINGS INDICATE SOME COOLING NEAR 850 MB THE LAST 24 HOURS.


...it's finally happening!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting centex:
Most Texas droughts end in a flood comes with the territory.




many droughts in Texas have been ended by powerful storms.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1438. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
XX/XX/XX
T-WAVE

Member Since: Posts: Comments:

Quoting alfabob:

Also all of that heat you see in the south Atlantic will be pumped into the tropical Atlantic right before the peak of the season, then traveling through the Caribbean, loop current, ect. I did some research on the cooling of the GOG but found mixed results. Some papers were claiming that it could be related to ENSO from adjacent oceans but here is an abstract I found related to the African monsoon.

Interaction of the Atlantic Equatorial Cold Tongue and the African Monsoon
"Comparison of these simulations indicates that the equatorial cooling exerts a significant influence on the
African monsoon, intensifying the southerly winds in the Gulf of Guinea and pushing the continental rainband
inland away from the Guinean coast. The intensification of the cross-equatorial southerlies associated with the
onset of the African monsoon, in turn, triggers the oceanic cooling in the east. The equatorial easterlies are also important for the seasonal cooling by inducing local upwelling and raising the thermocline in the east.
Three mechanisms are identified for the easterly wind acceleration in the equatorial Atlantic in boreal summer.
First, the monsoon rainfall distribution is such that it induces zonal sea level pressure gradients and easterly anomalies in the eastern Atlantic. Second, the strong cross-equatorial southerlies advect the easterly momentum from the south into the equator. Finally, zonal pressure gradients associated with the equatorial ocean cooling accelerate surface easterly winds in the middle and western Atlantic. This interaction of equatorial SST and zonal wind causes their westward copropagation, analogous to that in the equatorial Pacific."


Interesting. The 30-day SST Anomaly for the Equatorial Atlantic shows that more cooling of the Gulf of Guinea is expected.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1436. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
T.C.F.W.
02E/TS/B/CX
MARK
14.63N/102.33W
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Hey Cosmic I Like Beatriz :o) the 2nd one LOL\

Taco :o)
Member Since: iulie 7, 2005 Posts: 6 Comments: 3261
1433. emcf30
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NEBRASKA
1012 PM CDT SUN JUN 19 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN OMAHA HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTHEASTERN FREMONT COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST IOWA...
SOUTHERN PAGE COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST IOWA...

* UNTIL 1100 PM CDT

* AT 1011 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WERE
TRACKING A CONFIRMED TORNADO 9 MILES SOUTHWEST OF COIN...OR 10
MILES NORTH OF TARKIO. DOPPLER RADAR SHOWED THIS TORNADO MOVING
EAST AT 15 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
COIN...NORTHBORO...BLANCHARD...COLLEGE SPRINGS...BRADDYVILLE AND
SHAMBAUGH.
Member Since: august 7, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1957
can someone post the general update (including forecast map) of beatriz, my computer for some reason won't update it.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
TORNADO WARNING DES MOINES IA - KDMX 1010 PM CDT SUN JUN 19 2011
SVR T-STORM WARNING HASTINGS NE - KGID 1002 PM CDT SUN JUN 19 2011
TORNADO WARNING NORTH PLATTE NE - KLBF 958 PM CDT SUN JUN 19 2011
SVR T-STORM WARNING GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC - KGSP 1057 PM EDT SUN JUN 19 2011
TORNADO WARNING HASTINGS NE - KGID 956 PM CDT SUN JUN 19 2011
SVR T-STORM WARNING OMAHA/VALLEY NEBRASKA - KOAX 956 PM CDT SUN JUN 19 2011
SVR T-STORM WARNING NORTH PLATTE NE - KLBF 855 PM MDT SUN JUN 19 2011
FLASH FLOOD WARNING NORTH PLATTE NE - KLBF 952 PM CDT SUN JUN 19 2011
TORNADO WARNING HASTINGS NE - KGID 948 PM CDT SUN JUN 19 2011
Member Since: august 22, 2008 Posts: 12 Comments: 6010
5-day Sea Surface Temperature change reveals that the Gulf of Guinea continues to cool at a moderate to fast rate. For those who do not know, cooling of the Gulf of Guinea allows for more robust tropical waves, more frequently, and gives waves a better chance to develop. In short, cooling is not a good thing.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Most of the Atlantic, at least according to this image, is running 2-3 °C above average. Most of the Gulf of Mexico has 29 °C water temperatures, and the same can be said about the Caribbean. There are cooler waters off the East Coast, but that is to be expected.



Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1427. centex
Thanks to all you guys praying for Texas rain. Most Texas droughts end in a flood comes with the territory. Here is burn ban counties since most have seen size of exceptional drought.


Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1426. RTLSNK
The storms may get there before Cantore does.
Member Since: septembrie 3, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 22143
1425. emcf30
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
The day isn't quite over, but I have some good news. Even though there have been 12 reports of tornadoes today, there have been no damage reports, no injuries, and no fatalities. I do not think the same will be said about tomorrow, unfortunately.

I would have to agree with you. It may be a interesting couple of days..
Member Since: august 7, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1957
Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:
WND GST of 104 MPH at 08:00 PM MDT -- gust measured at eagle snotel

That is some serious Eagle Snot...


Must be baby eagles, it's snotel. ;>)
Member Since: august 22, 2008 Posts: 12 Comments: 6010
Terrific, just in time for the College World Series.

@JimCantore
Jim Cantore
Time to pack. Off to Omaha, NE early in the morning for a long week for #severe weather coverage.
Member Since: august 22, 2008 Posts: 12 Comments: 6010
WND GST of 104 MPH at 08:00 PM MDT -- gust measured at eagle snotel

That is some serious Eagle Snot...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Cantore tweet

@JimCantore
Jim Cantore
3 Wsw Red Mountain Pass. CO mesonet reports NON-TSTM WND GST of 104 MPH at 08:00 PM MDT -- gust measured at eagle snotel
Member Since: august 22, 2008 Posts: 12 Comments: 6010
The day isn't quite over, but I have some good news. Even though there have been 12 reports of tornadoes today, there have been no damage reports, no injuries, and no fatalities. I do not think the same will be said about tomorrow, unfortunately.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


Just as ATCF indicated.


Yep :)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting cyclonekid:
11pm EDT Advisory

45mph Winds
1001 mb


Just as ATCF indicated.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
000
WTPZ32 KNHC 200236
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM BEATRIZ ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022011
800 PM PDT SUN JUN 19 2011

...BEATRIZ GRADUALLY STRENGTHENING...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.9N 102.1W
ABOUT 195 MI...315 KM S OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO
ABOUT 320 MI...510 KM SSE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM ZIHUATANEJO WESTWARD TO MANZANILLO

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM WEST OF MANZANILLO WESTWARD TO LA FORTUNA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM TECPAN DE GALEANA WESTWARD TO EAST OF
ZIHUATANEJO

PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO
COMPLETION WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BEATRIZ WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 102.1 WEST. BEATRIZ IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL
MOTION WITH SOME DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER THE
NEXT DAY OR TWO. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF BEATRIZ IS
EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE COAST WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA BY
LATE MONDAY OR EARLY TUESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND
BEATRIZ IS LIKELY TO BE NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH BY LATE MONDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1001 MB...29.56 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST WITHIN
THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA BY LATE MONDAY OR EARLY TUESDAY.
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO FIRST REACH THE COAST
WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA ON MONDAY...MAKING OUTSIDE
PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS.

RAINFALL...BEATRIZ IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS
OF 6 TO 8 INCHES ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO...WITH
POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES OVER MOUNTAINOUS
TERRAIN. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND
MUDSLIDES.

STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE COASTAL FLOODING
IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA. NEAR
THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE
WAVES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...1100 PM PDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 AM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH/FRANKLIN
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
000
WTPZ22 KNHC 200232
TCMEP2

TROPICAL STORM BEATRIZ FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022011
0300 UTC MON JUN 20 2011

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM ZIHUATANEJO WESTWARD TO MANZANILLO

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM WEST OF MANZANILLO WESTWARD TO LA FORTUNA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM TECPAN DE GALEANA WESTWARD TO EAST OF
ZIHUATANEJO

PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO
COMPLETION WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 102.1W AT 20/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 102.1W AT 20/0300Z
AT 20/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.6N 101.7W

FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 15.7N 102.8W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 25NE 25SE 15SW 25NW.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 16.9N 103.6W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 45SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 17.9N 104.3W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 45NE 45SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 80SE 60SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 18.8N 105.0W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 45NE 45SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 80SE 60SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 20.0N 108.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 60SE 60SW 80NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 24/0000Z 20.0N 112.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 25/0000Z 20.0N 116.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.9N 102.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH/FRANKLIN
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
11pm EDT Advisory

45mph Winds
1001 mb
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting AtHomeInTX:


Hey xcool. Another member of the late night crew. :)

And hey Txhurr n Firstcoast.

Now that I said all that. I BBL. :)

Hey xcool...and athomeintexas!!!! Dont know if you remember me but I am here every year! Hoping for some rain here in south east Texas.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1412. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #23
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05
9:00 AM JST June 20 2011
====================================

SUBJECT: Tropical Depression In Northern South China Sea

At 0:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression (1004 hPa) located at 20.2N 119.9E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The depression is reported as moving west northwest at 10 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.0

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
24 HRS: 20.6N 116.7E - 35 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm)

Additional Information
======================

Tropical Depression will move at the same speed for the next 24 hours then decelerate

Tropical Depression will move west northwest for the next 48 hours

Tropical Depression will be upgraded to tropical storm within 24 hours

Tropical Depression will develop because cyclone will stay in high sea surface temperature area

Final Initial Dvorak number will be 2.0 after 24 hours
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Well I'm calling it a night, later gators
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Current Severe Weather watches:



* 513
* 514
* 515
* 516
* 517

Current Mesoscale Discussions:



* 1307

* 1308


Reports





Hail reports: 81/10
Wind reports: 25/0
Tornado reports: 12


Severe Weather risk:

Current day 1 risk: MODERATE
Current day 2 risk: MODERATE
Current day 3 risk: SLIGHT
Current day 4 %: 30%
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting SubtropicalHi:
1354 bohonkweaetherman asked if cloud seeing works. (I can't get quotes to work...sorry)

Edwards Aquifer Authority has tried it over the years -- without any real success.

Cloud seeding has supposedly increased yields from thunderstorms up in the Texas panhandle.

I think cloud seeding needs a "rain producing atmosphere" in order to work.

(I wonder if I made any sense.)



Your right, i think they had marginal success in enhancingng thunder storms seems i read that somewhere or i might have seen it on the Disc. Channel.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting SubtropicalHi:
1354 bohonkweaetherman asked if cloud seeing works. (I can't get quotes to work...sorry)

Edwards Aquifer Authority has tried it over the years -- without any real success.

Cloud seeding has supposedly increased yields from thunderstorms up in the Texas panhandle.

I think cloud seeding needs a "rain producing atmosphere" in order to work.

(I wonder if I made any sense.)

Yes and Thank you, have a great evening everyone, I had a nice fathers day, hope all the other dads did too.
Member Since: iulie 5, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1348
I blew Adrian's peak intensity by 30 mph, so lets see how it goes with Beatriz.

I call for Beatriz to become a strong Category 1 hurricane with 85/90 mph winds.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
.
.
.
.
Quoting PcolaDan:

I think you're confusing Beatrix with Beatrice.
Oh.....never mind!
.
.

.
Beatrice
<img src="
">
.
.
.

.
.

.
Beatriz


..
.
.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Link
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting PcolaDan:


Hehe.Everyone has their mental breakdowns on the blog.No more breakdowns after this.No more!.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1354 bohonkweaetherman asked if cloud seeing works. (I can't get quotes to work...sorry)

Edwards Aquifer Authority has tried it over the years -- without any real success.

Cloud seeding has supposedly increased yields from thunderstorms up in the Texas panhandle.

I think cloud seeding needs a "rain producing atmosphere" in order to work.

(I wonder if I made any sense.)

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting washingtonian115:
I've come back to get you.Muhawhaha.Lurk mode.


Member Since: august 22, 2008 Posts: 12 Comments: 6010
Quoting PcolaDan:
Is it safe, or is that washingtonian person still here?

;>)

I've come back to get you.Muhawhaha.Lurk mode.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting blsealevel:
Looks like around 80% chance of it doing just that
what you think?


Yeah, that's a possibility.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Is it safe, or is that washingtonian person still here?

;>)

Member Since: august 22, 2008 Posts: 12 Comments: 6010
Looks like around 80% chance of it doing just that
what you think?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1397. xcool
AtHomeInTX hello
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

Viewing: 1447 - 1397

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

Local Weather

Clear
38 °F
Cer senin

JeffMasters's Recent Photos

Lake Effort Snow Shower Over Windsor, Ontario
Sunset on Dunham Lake
Pictured Rocks Sunset
Sunset on Lake Huron