TD 13 intensifying; Katia may pass uncomfortably close to U.S.
Tropical Depression Thirteen formed last night over the Northern Gulf of Mexico and is slowly intensifying, but isn't in a hurry to go anywhere. What TD 13 will do is dump torrential rains along the northern Gulf Coast over the next three or more days. So far, rain amounts along the coast have mostly been below one inch. At New Orleans Lakefront Airport, just 0.32" inches of rain had fallen from TD 13 as of 10 am CDT. Some coastal regions have received up to two inches, according to radar rainfall estimates. TD 13 is generating a large area of 30 - 35 mph winds over the Gulf of Mexico. At 7:20 am CDT, winds at the Mississippi Canyon 711 oil rig were southeast at 47 mph. This is above tropical storm force, but the wind instrument was 348 feet (106 m) above the ocean surface, and winds near the surface were probably considerably lower, near 35 mph. Latest surface wind observations from an Air Force hurricane hunter aircraft support leaving TD 13 as a tropical depression. Long range radar out of Mobile, Alabama shows heavy rain showers building along the northern Gulf Coast, but these rain showers are not well-organized into spiral bands. Strong upper-level winds out of the west-northwest are creating a moderate 10 - 20 knots of wind shear over TD 13, keeping the storm's heavy thunderstorms disorganized and pushed to the east side of the storm. However, latest satelllite loops show TD 13 is becoming increasingly organized, with a respectable spiral band forming on the southeast side, and an increase and areal coverage of heavy thunderstorm activity. This is very likely to be a tropical storm later today.
Figure 1. Radar-estimated rainfall from TD 13 from the New Orleans radar.
Figure 2. U.S. drought conditions on August 30. The rains from TD 13 have the potential to bring major drought relief to drought-stricken portions of the coast. Note how Eastern North Carolina is no longer in drought, thanks to the rains from Hurricane Irene. These rains also came close to putting out a persistent fire that had been burning in the Great Dismal Swamp near the Virginia/North Carolina border. Image Credit: U.S. Drought Monitor.
Forecast for TD 13
TD 13's large size, ill-formed circulation center, and the presence of dry air on its west side due to an upper-level trough of low pressure argue against rapid intensification of the storm for the next three days. Also tending to slow intensification will be the slow movement of the storm, which will allow cold water from the depths to rise to the surface, thanks to wind and wave action. Tropical cyclones strongly cool the water's surface when they pass over it, as seen in the time vs. depth chart of sea surface temperatures during Hurricane Irene's passage along the New Jersey coast (Figure 3.) However, the Gulf of Mexico has some very warm waters near TD 13 that extend to great depth (Figure 4), so the surface cooling imparted by TD 13 will be less than that seen for Hurricane Irene. As TD 13 moves closer to the coast, more and more of its circulation will be over land, which will also slow intensification. NHC's 11 am EDT wind probability forecast for TD 13 gave the storm a 23% chance of intensifying into a hurricane by Sunday. Assuming TD 13 does not attain hurricane strength, wind damage and storm surge damage will likely not be the main concern--fresh water flooding from heavy rains will be the most dangerous impact. Also of concern is the possibility of tornadoes. NOAA's Storm Prediction Center is currently not highlighting the Gulf Coast in their "slight risk" area for severe weather, due to the lack of enough solar heating to create instability. However, there will be plenty of wind shear in the lower part of the atmosphere that can potentially create spin in the coastal thunderstorms, and it is possible that as TD 13 intensifies, it may be able to generate several dozen tornadoes.
Coastal Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, and the extreme western Panhandle of Florida will likely receive very heavy flooding rains that will intensify Saturday and peak on Sunday. These rains should be able to put out the stubborn marsh fire east of New Orleans that has brought several days of air quality alerts to the city, but may cause moderate to severe flooding problems in other areas. The latest rainfall forecast from NOAA Hydrological Prediction Center shows that a large area of 15+ inches of rain is expected over Southeast Louisiana and coastal Mississippi. The region is under moderate drought, so flooding problems will be delayed compared to what we'd normally expect from heavy rains of over a foot. Flash flood watches are posted for New Orleans and surrounding areas, and rainfall amounts of 1 - 3 inches per hour are possible in some of the heavier rain squalls. Ocean temperatures are near record warmth, 88°F (31°C), which will provide plenty of moisture for heavy rains, and plenty of energy to help TD 13 strengthen into a strong tropical storm. Steering currents will be weak in the Gulf this weekend and early next week, which will likely make the motion of TD 13 erratic at times.
Figure 3. EPA, in conjunction with Rutgers University and the NJ Department of Environmental Protection, has an Autonomous Underwater Vehicle (AUV, aka the Glider) deployed off the coast of NJ (since early August) continuously monitoring ocean temperature, density, salinity, sound velocity and dissolved oxygen at different depths. The AUV's path and data are displayed at the following website: http://marine.rutgers.edu/cool/auvs/index.php?did =221&view=imagery. The plot of temperature versus time above shows that in the weeks prior to the arrival of Irene, the ocean was heavily stratified, with warm waters of 24 - 26°C (75 - 79°F, red colors) extending from the surface to a depth of 10 - 15 meters. A sharp thermocline existed at a depth of about 15 meters, and ocean temperatures were colder than 14°C (57°F, dark blue colors) below the thermocline. The strong winds and high wave action of Hurricane Irene on August 28 - 29 stirred up cold water from the depths to the surface, cooling the surface waters to 17 - 19°C (63 - 67°F). In the days since the hurricane, surface waters have begun to warm again. Thanks go to Kevin Kubik, Deputy Director of the Division of Environmental Science and Assessment for EPA Region 2, for making me aware of this data.
Figure 4. The total amount of heat energy in the ocean available to fuel a tropical cyclone, in kilojoules per square centimeter of surface area. Tropical cyclones that move over ocean areas with TCHP values in excess of 70 - 90 kJ/cm^2 commonly undergo rapid intensification. Waters that are warm to a great depth have the highest TCHP, and the Loop Current that brings warm water northwards from the Caribbean to the Gulf of Mexico usually has the highest TCHP values in the Atlantic. Currently, we have an eddy that broke off from the Loop Current earlier this summer, now located a few hundred miles south of the Louisiana coast, that also has high TCHP values. Image Credit: NOAA/AOML.
Hurricane Katia
Hurricane Katia is continuing its long trek across the Atlantic Ocean today, and will not pose a danger to any land areas over the next five days. Katia is still struggling with dry air and moderate wind shear of 10 - 20 knots. Latest satellite loops show surface-based arc-shaped clouds racing to the southwest away from Katia's core, a sign that dry air is penetrating into Katia's thunderstorms and creating strong downdrafts that are robbing the storm of heat and moisture. Katia is over warm ocean waters of 28.5°C, and these waters will increase in temperature to 29°C over the next five days. Katia will pass well north of the region of cooler waters stirred up by the passage of Hurricane Irene last week.
The models are split on when the upper-level trough of low pressure bringing the wind shear to Katia will move away, and the storm may spend two more days battling wind shear and dry air before the upper-level trough pulls away to the north and allows Katia to intensify more readily. It is still unclear how much of a threat Katia may pose to the U.S., but it is becoming increasingly clear that Katia will pass uncomfortably close to the U.S. East Coast. The trough of low pressure currently steering Katia to the northwest will lift out early next week, and a ridge of high pressure is expected to build in, forcing Katia more to the west. This decreases the danger to Bermuda, but increases the danger to the U.S. A second trough of low pressure is expected to begin affecting Katia by the middle of next week, and will potentially recurve the storm out to sea before it hits the U.S. However, the models differ widely on the strength and timing of this trough. Meteorologist Grant Elliot of Australia's Bureau of Meteorology in Perth pointed out to me yesterday that the long-range forecast for Katia has more than the usual amount of uncertainty, due to the inability of the computer models to agree on what will happen to Tropical Storm Talas in the Western Pacific. Talas is expected to hit Japan early on Saturday as a strong tropical storm, then race northwestwards into the Bering Sea off the coast of Alaska. Talas is then expected to transition into a powerful extratropical storm in the waters south of Alaska. This storm will create a ripple effect downstream in the jet stream, all the way to North America, by early next week. The timing and amplitude of the trough of low pressure off the U.S. East Coast expected to potentially recurve Katia out to sea next week is highly dependent upon the strength of Tropical Storm Talas during its transition to an extratropical storm. The computer models are not very good at handling these sorts of transitions, leading to more than the usual amount of uncertainty in the long-range outlook for Katia. It will probably be another 2 - 3 days before the models will begin to converge on a solution for the long-term fate of Katia. Dr. Bob Hart's Historical Tropical Cyclone Probability web page suggests shows that tropical storms in Katia's current position have a 17% chance of hitting North Carolina, a 21% chance of hitting Canada, a 13% chance of hitting New England, and a 55% chance of never hitting land. One almost certain impact of Katia on the U.S. will be large waves. Long period swells from Katia will begin affecting the Bahamas on Sunday night, then reach the Southeast U.S. by Monday morning. By Tuesday morning, the entire U.S. East Coast will see high surf from Katia, and these waves will increase in size and power as the storm grows closer. Given the slow movement of Katia as it approaches the coast, plus its expected Category 1 to 3 strength as it approaches, the storm will probably cause extensive beach erosion and dangerous rip tides for many days.
94L
A well-organized low pressure system with a surface circulation but limited heavy thunderstorm activity due to high wind shear is 450 miles south of Halifax, Canada. This disturbance, (94L), is headed northeast out to sea, and is being given a 60% chance of developing into a tropical depression by NHC. 94L is under a high 25 - 30 knots of wind shear, but this shear is expected to fall to the moderate range, 10 - 20 knots, by Saturday morning. However, sea surface temperature will fall from 27°C today to 25°C Saturday morning underneath 94L, and the storm will have a very short window of time to get organized enough to get a name. At this point, it's really a subjective judgement call on whether or not 94L is already a tropical storm.
Figure 5. A Portlight volunteer works to clear storm debris from Hurricane Irene in Hollywood, Maryland.
Portlight disaster relief effort in Maryland
Hurricane Irene heavily damaged the town of Hollywood, Maryland, when a tornado cut off electric power, water, and phone service. Portlight and Team Rubicon volunteers arrived before emergency personnel, after following up on a local tip. What they found was an isolated area whose plight was unknown to the larger community. Most residents were trapped at their homes by heavy debris. Portlight and Team Rubicon worked for two days to clear paths to each address, extract vehicles from debris, and cut down trees that constituted safety hazards. Portlight also instructed local residents how to operate and maintain chainsaws and safely clear debris. No other volunteer organizations or emergency personnel arrived at any time, and Portlight succeeded in meeting the specific needs of the underserved, unserved, and forgotten. Visit the Portlight blog to learn more; donations are always welcome.
I'll have a new post each morning over the coming holiday weekend; wunderground meteorologists Angela Fritz, Rob Carver, and Shaun Tanner will be handling the afternoon and evening posts. Have a great holiday weekend, everyone!
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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I do believe that the winds are meant to represent areas in the open. Not many areas are unobstructed in southeast Louisiana (on land) as it is mostly dense forest. That might make it a little less comparable.
But they do refer to a 6 hour motion in the context of the past few hours of motion with an expected resumption of the forecasted motion. The discussion simply glossed over the 6 hour motion as if it never happened and that is my point.
In any event, it is what it is and it doesn't really matter to me but when I see something like that I consider it fair to comment on it.
Better hope Lee's remnants don't hang around too long across the Miss. Valley and scoots out to the NE on the coming trough. Otherwise, the ridge in the east pumps up and pushes Katia south towards the US east coast.
That is not a happy thought at all. She has yet to turn as predicted.
18.4 N and 53.5 W at 5 pm
~18.7 N and ~53.8 W at ~9pm based on this image:
i did last week
lol
NICE!!!!
That hot, dry belt of air is lifting north out of TX and we're starting to see moisture creeping in... you can't imagine what a welcome sight that is.
If we can't have rain, at least clouds... being outside feels like one is under a magnifying glass, pure burn.
However, you don't need expertise in meteorology science, to figure out that the wind field map is flat out wrong. All you need is a little common sense.
Like I said, I don't condone bashing them, they should be respected. But they are human beings so, you can't go around saying "well they can't be wrong just because they are experts".
If that was my college project to draw a wind field map, and that was the map I drew with current available data, I would get a C if I'm lucky, only for putting in the effort. Why shouldn't the same standard be held out side of school too if that's what it takes to get there?
Allow me: "This graphic shows the areas potentially being affected by the sustained winds of tropical storm force (in orange) and hurricane force (in red). The display is based on the wind radii contained in the latest Forecast/Advisory (indicated at the top of the figure). Users are reminded that the Forecast/Advisory wind radii represent the maximum possible extent of a given wind speed within particular quadrants around the tropical cyclone. As a result, not all locations falling within the orange or red shaded areas will be experiencing sustained tropical storm or hurricane force winds, respectively."
IOW, simply put, the graphic isn't depicting what some seem to believe it is.
The folks at the NHC are, again, professionals, and the top experts in the field of tropical cyclones. I don't believe they're infallible, but I certainly believe they should be given the benefit of the doubt, as any single worker there likely knows more about hurricanes and tropical storms than every member of this forum combined.
[EDIT: I see that ChristopherH beat me to this a ways back. But I'll leave it anyway; it appears some need to be reminded.]
I smell a Westcaster.
Yeah TWC couldn't say the word "West" all they could say is that Katia was going "Left", i was like WTF?!?!
Huh, go fig'ya ?
Now Hurricane Katia: The forecast is VERY tricky. Bottom line, the threat to the East Coast, especially NC and New England continues. For the next 5 days, Katia will head directly toward the SE US. Then...not sure. How the jet stream and Lee's remnants interact, and the inland position of ex-Lee, will turn Katia out to sea or bring it over or near the East Coast. Forecast has not been good on strength either, so high uncertainty. Threat days: Thu/Fri.
I'm no met, but my guess would be that it stay off shore and come closer to bermuda than the east coast
Sorry to seem like I am attacking you but just sayin'...rant over
please don't go there. see my name. tia.
Were trying to get ya some relief,,and I know any will help over there
And then you come in with facts. Oh no....
Transmitted: 3rd day of the month at 02:26Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 306)
Storm Number & Year: 13L in 2011
Storm Name: Lee (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 4
Observation Number: 06
A. Time of Center Fix: 3rd day of the month at 1:52:00Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 28°11'N 91°46'W (28.1833N 91.7667W)
B. Center Fix Location: 141 miles (227 km) to the S (174°) from Lafayette, LA, USA.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 1,427m (4,682ft) at 850mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 36kts (~ 41.4mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 91 nautical miles (105 statute miles) to the ESE (119°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 196° at 41kts (From the SSW at ~ 47.2mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 58 nautical miles (67 statute miles) to the ESE (115°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 1000mb (29.53 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 18°C (64°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,521m (4,990ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 19°C (66°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,523m (4,997ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp & Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Not Available
M. Eye Shape: Not Available
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Wind and Pressure
N. Fix Level: 850mb
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 4 nautical miles
Remarks Section - Remarks That Were Decoded...
Maximum Wind Outbound: 42kts (~ 48.3mph) in the northwest quadrant at 2:15:30Z
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 42kts (~ 48.3mph) in the northwest quadrant at 2:15:30Z
Maximum Flight Level Temp: 22°C (72°F) which was observed 17 nautical miles (20 statute miles) to the ESE (110°) from the flight level center
Remarks Section - Additional Remarks...
MAX SFMR SFC WIND NW QUAD 38 KTS.
Was really surprised to see the water up so high - just about no beach left. About 1-2ft more and the water would be getting up into the parking lot of the pier and also started to creep up onto Beach Blvd.
Yes....the voice of reason speaks...Potentiality is key.Just like with Irene, if things were done with exacts and not potentiality, there probably would have been a larger death toll. Thank U Neapolitan:)
designated because i can't drink alcohol. i drive for all trips anyway. i don't trust anyone else.
(Cannot remember exactly how those measure moisture...anyone?)
As funny as that is, there are a few here who i feel truly are good enough to do that! ....but only a few;)
Just ma' opinion lol.
...but i don't have an restraining orders yet... :)
Not necessarily disagreeing with your point entirely, but that might be just a bit of a stretch...
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