Maria brushes Bermuda; 24-hour blitz by Climate Reality Project underway

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 02:27 PM GMT on septembrie 15, 2011

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Tropical Storm Maria is roaring past Bermuda, bringing winds near tropical storm force. At 11 am local time, winds at the Bermuda airport were sustained at 36 mph, just below the 39 mph threshold of tropical storm strength. Outer spiral bands of Maria have brought a few brief heavy rain squalls to the island, as seen on Bermuda radar. The core of Maria is now at its closest point of approach to the island, about 150 miles (240 km) to the west, and the island may yet see an hour of two of sustained winds of 40 - 45 mph. Maria is headed north-northeast, and will brush Newfoundland, Canada on Friday afternoon. Since Newfoundland will be on the weak (left) side of a rapidly weakening Maria, I'm not expecting much in the way of wind damage from the storm in Canada, though heavy rains may cause isolated minor to moderate flooding. Top sustained winds in St. Johns will probably be in the 25 - 35 mph range Friday afternoon, though a few hours of tropical storm force winds of 40 - 45 mph are possible if Maria ends up tracking farther west than expected.


Figure 1. Radar image of Tropical Storm Maria taken at 10:13 am EDT September 15, 2011. Image credit: Bermuda Weather Service.

Elsewhere in the tropics
Even the busiest of hurricane seasons have lulls, and we're hitting one this week during what is traditionally the busiest week of hurricane season. A westward-moving tropical wave a few hundred miles south of the Cape Verde Islands, off the coast of Africa, has a modest amount of poorly organized heavy thunderstorm activity. This wave is under a moderate 10 - 20 knots of wind shear, is in a moist environment, and is over warm waters, so has the potential for some development, though NHC is currently not mentioning it in their Tropical Weather Outlook. The UKMET and NOGAPS models predict this wave could develop into a tropical depression 5 - 6 days from now. The NOGAPS model continues to predict the Western Caribbean off the coast of Nicaragua could see the development of a tropical depression 6 - 7 days from now, but the other models are showing little support for this scenario.


Figure 2. Heidi Cullen of Climate Central introduces Boulder, Colorado teacher John Zavalney, one of the presenters of the Climate Reality Project's 24-hour live streaming special.

The Climate Reality Project
The Climate Reality Project (climaterealityproject.org) is a little more than halfway through their live, 24-hour streaming video effort that features 24 different presenters for 24 hours, representing every time zone around the globe. The presentations began last night at 7 pm EDT, and will end tonight at 7 pm EDT. It's worth checking out; there have been some interesting presentations and some dull ones. Interspersed with the presentations are panel discussions with some slick Google Earth graphics; last night's discussions were led by Heidi Cullen of Climate Central, who is a rarity--a very personable and well-spoken scientist, and someone you'll be seeing on TV much more in coming years. The Climate Reality Project showed one excellent video tracking the history of industry-funded denial of science that began with the tobacco industry, something I've discussed as well in post called The Manufactured Doubt Industry and the hacked email controversy. Also shown were two cute 15 - 30 second comedy videos. But while the Climate Reality Project's 24-hour blitz has already gotten 3 million people to tune in, its documentary-style tone and Powerpoint lectures will not be engaging enough to keep most visitors around for more than a few minutes. Ph.D. oceanographer Randy Olson, who left a tenure-track professorship to become a Hollywood film maker, has written an excellent book called Don't be Such a Scientist, about the failure of scientists to communicate in way that will engage people (I thought so highly of the book that I bought 20 copies of the book to give away to students at the University of Michigan's Department of Atmospheric Science this year.) In the latest post in his blog, The Benshi, Olson outlines how the climate community has failed in the main way needed to engage an audience: create a likable voice through the effective telling of stories, which is a less literal means of communication and is less cerebral and thus reaches a mass audience. Future efforts at communication by the climate science community really need to work on using the telling of stories by likable voices in order to get their message across, and I highly recommend that all climate scientists who do public outreach read Olson's book "Don't be Such a Scientist."

Jeff Masters

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967. CaneHunter031472
05:26 PM GMT on septembrie 16, 2011
As far as I'm concerned the Hurricane season is basically over. It's nice a cool over here in the Mississippi Gulf Coast. It was actually chilly this morning and it is expected to remain like this for weeks which tells me that this is another early fall. So in between this long discussion arguing about how hot and dry it has become and how Man Made Global warming is the cause of it, I'm here in a ver ynice and cool environment right in the first weeks of september. By the way one of the dryest spots in this planet is also one of the coldest. So ole Al better take advantage of whatever little heat remains to make his point as to how are we causing global warming before it gets too cold.
Member Since: august 1, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 202
966. aspectre
02:52 PM GMT on septembrie 16, 2011
40.0n62.0w has been re-evaluated&altered for H.Maria's_12pmGMT_ATCF
39.8n62.2w, 42.8n58.2w are now the most recent positions
Starting 15Sept_6amGMT and ending 16Sept_6amGMT

The 4 southern line-segments represent HurricaneMaria's path,
the northernmost line-segment is the straightline projection for 16Sept_12pmGMT,
the coastline dumbbell at 47.113n54.077w-YYT is the endpoint of the straightline projection
connected to its nearest airport for the 16Sept_6amGMT*mapping,
and the island blob at 46.804n56.361w-FSP is the same for the 16Sept_12amGMT*mapping.

Using straightline projection of the travel-speed&heading derived from the
ATCF coordinates spanning the 6hours between 6amGMT then 12pmGMT :
H.Maria's travel-speed was 49mph(78.9k/h) on a heading of 43.9degrees(NE)
H.Maria was headed toward passing ~39miles(~63kilometres) southeast of Newfoundland ~4&1/2.hours from now

Copy&paste 46.804n56.361w-fsp, 47.113n54.077w-yyt, 31.2n67.8w-33.7n67.0w, 33.7n67.0w-36.8n64.9w, 36.8n64.9w-39.8n62.2w, 39.8n62.2w-42.8n58.2w, yyt, 39.8n62.2w-46.360n52.582w into the GreatCircleMapper for more info

The previous mapping for 16Sept_6amGMT

* The alteration of the endpoint of a TropicalCyclone's previous path also changes its previous travel-speed &heading, and the endpoint of its previous straightline projection...
...but I'm choosing to preserve the historicity of the mappings.
Member Since: august 21, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 4860
965. basti11
01:53 PM GMT on septembrie 16, 2011
you can throw the CV season out the window for 2011...if anything would develop it would become a sea rider...all we have to woory about is development in the western and nw caribbean sea...this has a great chance affecting south fla from tampa south into the keys and the bahamas...these people need to stay on alert ..its not out of the question we could get a cat 5 easily with the ssts so high in the western caribbean sea...
Member Since: septembrie 5, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 213
964. basti11
01:49 PM GMT on septembrie 16, 2011
IM looking for a real cold winter and a wet one this year with a good possibility of the WHITE STUFF before xmas...
Member Since: septembrie 5, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 213
963. basti11
01:47 PM GMT on septembrie 16, 2011
the ssts will drop 10 degrees when this cold front passes next friday ending the HURRICANE SEASON for the gom...the ones under the gun is TAMPA SOUTH...we are in the clear i pulled my shutters down yesterday...now its on to 2012 for the GOM...odds after sept 24th of getting hit by a hurricane on the gulfcoast


TEXAS 100/1

LOUISIANA 75/1

MISSISSIPPI 70/1

ALABAMA 60/1

PENSECOLA TO CEDAR KEYS FLA 40/1

THIS IS OF SEPT 24TH..
Member Since: septembrie 5, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 213
962. Skyepony (Mod)
01:44 PM GMT on septembrie 16, 2011
Gif of real time MJO, K-waves & such forecast.
Member Since: august 10, 2005 Posts: 209 Comments: 39077
961. TomTaylor
01:44 PM GMT on septembrie 16, 2011
New blog
Member Since: august 24, 2010 Posts: 19 Comments: 4358
960. ncstorm
01:44 PM GMT on septembrie 16, 2011
NOGAPS LATEST RUN..Wave train and system up the spine of Florida

Member Since: august 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 16216
959. basti11
01:41 PM GMT on septembrie 16, 2011
GM like i been saying all along the HURRICANE SEASON is over for the GOM on SEPT 24...another major cold front will be down here by next friday dropping temps in the low 40s n of the lake and in the upper 40s to low 50s south of the lake...so we can kiss the HURRICANE SEASON GOODBYE...thats what i was trying to get across to LEVI...i know the GOM and i can tell you without reservation its over for 2011....
Member Since: septembrie 5, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 213
958. overwash12
01:41 PM GMT on septembrie 16, 2011
Quoting Skyepony:


They were down south last week. Been 1/2 expecting them since the winds from the east came back but hadn't been to the beach since last weekend.

Climate change has favored the jellies the world over. It was one of those predicted things that are happening faster & in more numbers than anticipated. Hardly a week goes by that they don't clog up a nuclear reactor's cooling system somewhere.
I think oxygen depleted water and nutrient rich ocean water are a big reason for the jellyfish population explosion,we have them bad in the Chesapeake bay!
Member Since: iunie 24, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1497
957. Skyepony (Mod)
01:36 PM GMT on septembrie 16, 2011
Quoting islander101010:
what about the invasion of jellies e. cen fl. worst in a lifetime


They were down south last week. Been 1/2 expecting them since the winds from the east came back but hadn't been to the beach since last weekend.

Climate change has favored the jellies the world over. It was one of those predicted things that are happening faster & in more numbers than anticipated. Hardly a week goes by that they don't clog up a nuclear reactor's cooling system somewhere.
Member Since: august 10, 2005 Posts: 209 Comments: 39077
956. biff4ugo
01:33 PM GMT on septembrie 16, 2011
Glad to hear Texas is getting some rain. Hope you get more.

The comet impacting the sun yesterday was impressive to me.
Member Since: decembrie 28, 2006 Posts: 115 Comments: 1598
955. gulfcoastmom1969
01:10 PM GMT on septembrie 16, 2011
this is the history of today 2004

Ivan was a classical, long-lived Cape Verde hurricane that reached Category 5 strength three times on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale (SSHS). It was also the strongest hurricane on record that far south east of the Lesser Antilles. Ivan caused considerable damage and loss of life as it passed through the Caribbean Sea. Link


i know were i was and we had a mess to clean up
Member Since: august 21, 2007 Posts: 12 Comments: 167
954. biff4ugo
01:10 PM GMT on septembrie 16, 2011
What a cool project. I'm sorry I missed it live.

I do wish VP Gore did not throw in statements that climate conservatives can latch onto as 'bogus'.

You don't sweat more when it's hot just because the air holds more moisture. You sweat more because you body needs to cool down.
He could say you see your sweat more when it is humid, like Florida vs. Arizona in the same heat because the warm air capacity is full in Florida but that gets complex. If you warm up air and it's capacity increases, you would seem to sweat less since it would evaporate faster... like I said, complex and easily turned around.

It would also help to humanize the opposition against the science to not call them deniers but "climate conservatives" showing their reluctance to change without being pejorative.

We can build a better, cleaner, healthier world together.
Member Since: decembrie 28, 2006 Posts: 115 Comments: 1598
953. RitaEvac
01:05 PM GMT on septembrie 16, 2011
Quoting bohonkweatherman:
It is just nice seeing a little bit of Texas getting a little rain, first time in a long time there is isolated showers on my radar, now rain fall on the fires please.


Have some inflow coming off the gulf this morning
Member Since: iulie 14, 2008 Posts: 2 Comments: 9679
952. Tropicsweatherpr
01:04 PM GMT on septembrie 16, 2011
Looks like is turning extratropical.

AL, 14, 2011091612, , BEST, 0, 428N, 582W, 65, 983, HU
Member Since: aprilie 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14761
951. 22miNofGalv
01:02 PM GMT on septembrie 16, 2011
<blockquote class='blogquote'>Quoting bohonkweatherman:
Bastrop fire update: Now 85 percent contained. Early estimates on damage $150 million....


I would've thought the estimates would be much higher given over 1300 homes destroyed by this fire. Sad situation and still no precipitation in sight.
Member Since: septembrie 12, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 4
950. bohonkweatherman
12:58 PM GMT on septembrie 16, 2011
Quoting RitaEvac:




It is just nice seeing a little bit of Texas getting a little rain, first time in a long time there is isolated showers on my radar, now rain fall on the fires please.
Member Since: iulie 5, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1348
949. RitaEvac
12:52 PM GMT on septembrie 16, 2011




Member Since: iulie 14, 2008 Posts: 2 Comments: 9679
948. greentortuloni
12:52 PM GMT on septembrie 16, 2011
Quoting jpsb:
The problem is the message, or the message being delivered by the extremists in the AWG /environmentalist movement. Normal people like me listen to what they are advocating and quickly realize that basically they want a return to preindustrial times. The USA might be able to support a population of 80-100 million sans fossil fuel/nuclear energy so that means 200 million plus people need to go. That is a very hard sell if you think you might be one of the ones that need to go.


One of the dumbest posts ever. "quickly realize that basically they want a return to preindustrial times"

Huh? That is what the soft titty of American hate would have you believe. The truth is very different. They just want you to get out of the way of those trying to save the planet.
Member Since: iunie 5, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1220
947. Tropicsweatherpr
12:50 PM GMT on septembrie 16, 2011
Quoting hurricane23:


Yes, it looks like the lull wlll be more prolonged than first thought.
Member Since: aprilie 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14761
945. outofdablue
12:23 PM GMT on septembrie 16, 2011
Today is the anniversary of Ivan coming ashore in baldwin co. Al. 7 years ago!
Member Since: iulie 29, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 47
944. bohonkweatherman
12:20 PM GMT on septembrie 16, 2011
Bastrop fire update: Now 85 percent contained. Early estimates on damage $150 million. It is humid this morning also. Isolated Light showers reported at Round Rock and developing around South Central Texas. Decent showers around San Antonio. I can see some areas getting a quarter of an inch or so which would seem like a flood around here. It would be awesome if it rained on Bastrop Texas and all other Texas locations still fighting fires which i understand is around 100 of them going on.
Member Since: iulie 5, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1348
943. hurricane23
12:20 PM GMT on septembrie 16, 2011
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
Good morning to all. I am not abandoning this ship as I am seeing some are doing. I will continue to talk about the tropics in this Dr Masters blog and on my blog.

On another topic, I see that 00z GFS and ECMWF backed off from the CV development both had at yesterdays 12z.

Makes sense as the basin is pretty unfavorable till the end of the month.
Member Since: mai 14, 2006 Posts: 8 Comments: 13841
942. Matt1989
12:11 PM GMT on septembrie 16, 2011
Well looks like the season is coming to a close....
Member Since: noiembrie 8, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 137
941. stoormfury
12:07 PM GMT on septembrie 16, 2011
good morning

The tropics is now having a little respite,with ONLY maria heading towards New Foundland and off to the atlantic shipping lanes. my concern this morning is an area of disturbed weather in the catl near 9n 35 w. There is good 850 mb vorticity with moderate shear values which is expecte to decrease the next 24 hrs and be more conducive, the next few days. sst is very warm south of 10 deg north and the system is moving west with no indication of recurvature before it gets in the caribbean sea. So far this morning it is only the Nogaps and the UK met is latched on to this system. i am positive the other global models will soon come on board. The system looks insignificant at this time, but what is worrisome Ivan in 2004 looked the same in the same position . it was also a friday and almost the same date in sept. could this be devaju all over again.
Member Since: august 22, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 2722
940. Tropicsweatherpr
11:59 AM GMT on septembrie 16, 2011
BULLETIN
HURRICANE MARIA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 39A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142011
800 AM AST FRI SEP 16 2011

...WINDS ALREADY INCREASING OVER THE AVALON PENINSULA...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...42.6N 58.2W
ABOUT 375 MI...605 KM SW OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 35 DEGREES AT 45 MPH...72 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...979 MB...28.91 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NEWFOUNDLAND FROM ARNOLDS COVE TO BRIGUS SOUTH

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NEWFOUNDLAND FROM STONES COVE TO ARNOLDS COVE AND FROM BRIGUS
SOUTH TO CHARLOTTETOWN

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12
HOURS OR SO. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE
RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12
TO 24 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY ENVIRONMENT CANADA.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE MARIA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 42.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 58.2 WEST. MARIA IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 45 MPH...72 KM/H. THIS GENERAL MOTION
WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE
DAY...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST AND ADDITIONAL
ACCELERATION BY TONIGHT. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF
MARIA SHOULD PASS NEAR OR OVER EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND
THIS AFTERNOON.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 80 MPH...130 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. MARIA IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE WIND SCALE. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED BEFORE
MARIA MOVES OVER SOUTHEASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND LATER TODAY. SOME
WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED BY TONIGHT...AND MARIA COULD BE ABSORBED
WITHIN A FRONTAL ZONE BY SATURDAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205
MILES...335 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 979 MB...28.91 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN ACROSS
SOUTHEASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND WITHIN THE WARNING AREA LATER THIS
MORNING. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE HURRICANE
WARNING AREA BY MIDDAY.

RAINFALL...RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS
SOUTHEASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND IN ASSOCIATION WITH MARIA.

STORM SURGE...COASTAL FLOODING IS EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF
WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL
BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/BEVEN




Member Since: aprilie 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14761
939. FortBendMan
11:58 AM GMT on septembrie 16, 2011
Texas sea breeze pattern finally seems to be in place today. There is a good sized storm that just popped up in downtown San Antonio this morning - maybe 10-15 minutes ago. And I see plenty of moisture south of Corpus Christi. That should be a good indication the high pressure ridge has moved down towards Mexico finally. If the Gulf can cooperate, south Texas might get some much needed rain today.
Member Since: iunie 6, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 13
938. Neapolitan
11:56 AM GMT on septembrie 16, 2011
Quoting mikatnight:
Good Morning Everyone. Today is the 83rd anniversery of the United States' 2nd worst natural disaster in its history. I was pleased to see the NHC's Re-Analysis Project finally got around to changing the estimated center positions of the '28 Storm to roughly what everyone has said they were for the last 82 years. This is the map I made and sent to the NHC 5 or 6 years ago regarding the matter:


And since I'm unable to find any decent revised graphics, and the Historical Hurricane Tracks site is currently pretty much useless due to numerous errors, I made my own. This is the revised track:

The colored rings (WU's Cat. colors for 1-4) merely delineate 10-mile increments, and are not indicative of the windfield at the time. The thin pink line above the new official track notes the positions before the revision.

The NHC doesn't list the track change as a "major correction", but I differ on that view considerably. For one thing, the plaque at the WPB mass burial site has an inaccurite statement:

"On Sept. 16, 1928, a hurricane came ashore near the Jupiter Lighthouse and traveled west..."

The irony is, the new positions paint a line almost directly over the burial site in WPB:


As well as the other mass burial site in Port Mayaca:


A brief description of the Florida impact:
One of the ten most intense hurricanes ever recorded to strike the United States, coastal damage in Florida near the point of landfall was catastrophic. From Pompano Beach to Jupiter, buildings suffered serious damage from 145 mph sustained winds and a 10 ft storm surge, which was heaviest in the vicinity of Palm Beach. Inland, the hurricane wreaked even greater widespread destruction along the more heavily populated coast of Lake Okeechobee. 140 mph sustained winds caused a storm surge to overflow the small dike that had been built at the south end of the lake. The resulting flood - which lasted for weeks - covered hundreds of square miles and in some places was over 20 ft deep. More than 2500 people drowned, making this storm second only to the 1900 Galveston Hurricane as the deadliest natural disaster in US history.

Hope everyone has a great Friday with beautiful weather on this day, that reminds us of a stormy Sunday Night, a long time ago...

"They call it Stormy Monday,
But Tuesday's just as bad,
Lord, and Wednesday's worse -
Thursday is, oh so sad..."



The 1928 Okeechobee Hurricane was a monster for sure. When driving through the fields south of the dike near Belle Glade and Clewiston as I have many times, it's never failed to strike me that beneath the square miles of muck in which all that sugar cane grows are the bones of hundreds of those who were never found. Think about that next time you sweeten your coffee with Florida sugar... :-\
Member Since: noiembrie 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13731
936. islander101010
11:40 AM GMT on septembrie 16, 2011
Quoting Gearsts:
No not yet, there's still names from Africa to form aleast 2 more maybe 3.
check you climatology records tas is right
Member Since: septembrie 11, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 4989
935. islander101010
11:36 AM GMT on septembrie 16, 2011
Quoting Skyepony:
Thailand got slammed with flood..82 died and more than 570,000 affected.

A pipeline from an orphaned platform was leaking crude oil into Bayou Dupont and north Barataria Bay in Jeffferson Parrish. Clean up is under way. Quite a bit of oil..

Oil industry had two explosions already today. Fireball in Australia & a rig blew in North Dakota killing two.

TX has some red tide in the Brownsville Ship Channel & a lot of dead fish..

Giant African Snails invade Miami..i know could be more weather related but giant snails..
what about the invasion of jellies e. cen fl. worst in a lifetime
Member Since: septembrie 11, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 4989
934. islander101010
11:33 AM GMT on septembrie 16, 2011
waters plenty warm around s. fl.
Member Since: septembrie 11, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 4989
932. mikatnight
11:21 AM GMT on septembrie 16, 2011
Good Morning Everyone. Today is the 83rd anniversery of the United States' 2nd worst natural disaster in its history. I was pleased to see the NHC's Re-Analysis Project finally got around to changing the estimated center positions of the '28 Storm to roughly what everyone has said they were for the last 82 years. This is the map I made and sent to the NHC 5 or 6 years ago regarding the matter:


And since I'm unable to find any decent revised graphics, and the Historical Hurricane Tracks site is currently pretty much useless due to numerous errors, I made my own. This is the revised track:

The colored rings (WU's Cat. colors for 1-4) merely delineate 10-mile increments, and are not indicative of the windfield at the time. The thin pink line above the new official track notes the positions before the revision.

The NHC doesn't list the track change as a "major correction", but I differ on that view considerably. For one thing, the plaque at the WPB mass burial site has an inaccurite statement:

"On Sept. 16, 1928, a hurricane came ashore near the Jupiter Lighthouse and traveled west..."

The irony is, the new positions paint a line almost directly over the burial site in WPB:


As well as the other mass burial site in Port Mayaca:


A brief description of the Florida impact:
One of the ten most intense hurricanes ever recorded to strike the United States, coastal damage in Florida near the point of landfall was catastrophic. From Pompano Beach to Jupiter, buildings suffered serious damage from 145 mph sustained winds and a 10 ft storm surge, which was heaviest in the vicinity of Palm Beach. Inland, the hurricane wreaked even greater widespread destruction along the more heavily populated coast of Lake Okeechobee. 140 mph sustained winds caused a storm surge to overflow the small dike that had been built at the south end of the lake. The resulting flood - which lasted for weeks - covered hundreds of square miles and in some places was over 20 ft deep. More than 2500 people drowned, making this storm second only to the 1900 Galveston Hurricane as the deadliest natural disaster in US history.

Hope everyone has a great Friday with beautiful weather on this day, that reminds us of a stormy Sunday Night, a long time ago...

"They call it Stormy Monday,
But Tuesday's just as bad,
Lord, and Wednesday's worse -
Thursday is, oh so sad..."


Member Since: octombrie 18, 2005 Posts: 4 Comments: 3052
931. aislinnpaps
11:17 AM GMT on septembrie 16, 2011
Quoting stribe37:
Weather and Climate are related to one another.. and climate change will affect the weather.. so I see no issue with a respected meteorologist (who you know has scientific training and such) talking about it. Whether you agree or disagree with him is another matter, but I see no issue with him talking about it.

Frankly, the only people who seem uncomfortable with him talking about it are those who deny it exists, and hate having facts and statistics contradict them.




Climate change is an interesting topic. But the topic always appears to disintegrate into a political bashing. I prefer to not read politics and people-bashing. Greenhouse and climate change can be seperate topics, look at history. Attitude and how things are presented are also factors in how information is received. Because of how the presentation is given by several posters, I skip them or leave and come back when the topic goes back to weather. It's good to be ardent with something you love, but if you want people to listen, you need to avoid ranting and trying to push your agenda.
Member Since: august 22, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 3166
930. PensacolaDoug
11:16 AM GMT on septembrie 16, 2011
Good morning all. Unusally quiet out in the tropical Atlantic for this time of year.
Member Since: iulie 25, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 646
929. aislinnpaps
11:11 AM GMT on septembrie 16, 2011
Quoting aquak9:
g'morning ais

was hoping I'd find you wandering aimlessly
you have wu-mail

wish I could send rain as easily as a click on the keyboard


Morning, Aqua! Yep, wandering aimlessly around!
Member Since: august 22, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 3166
928. GeoffreyWPB
11:06 AM GMT on septembrie 16, 2011
Member Since: septembrie 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 11513
927. HurrikanEB
10:57 AM GMT on septembrie 16, 2011

"Sea ice cover in the Arctic in 2011 has passed its annual minimum, reaching the second-lowest level since satellite records began, US scientists say.The National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC) says the minimum, reached on 9 September, was 4.33 million sq km."
Link

Member Since: mai 2, 2008 Posts: 12 Comments: 1343
926. stribe37
10:50 AM GMT on septembrie 16, 2011
Weather and Climate are related to one another.. and climate change will affect the weather.. so I see no issue with a respected meteorologist (who you know has scientific training and such) talking about it. Whether you agree or disagree with him is another matter, but I see no issue with him talking about it.

Frankly, the only people who seem uncomfortable with him talking about it are those who deny it exists, and hate having facts and statistics contradict them.


Quoting Seawall:
This USED to be a weather blog. Checked in twice today, and guess what? Presto, it's back to climate change, or whatever you call it. If I wanted to read about climate change, I'd go to a blog about it.. and yes, I know it's Dr. Master's blog, and I respect his weather opinions, but I don't want his other opinions shoved down my throat.
Member Since: noiembrie 4, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 74
925. aspectre
10:46 AM GMT on septembrie 16, 2011
H.Maria's_6amGMT_ATCF : Starting 15Sept_6amGMT and ending 16Sept_6amGMT

The 4 southern line-segments represent HurricaneMaria's path,
the northernmost line-segment is the straightline projection for 16Sept_6amGMT,
the island blob at 46.804n56.361w-FSP is the endpoint of the straightline projection
connected to its nearest airport for the 16Sept_12amGMT*mapping,
and the coastline dumbbell at 45.992n59.6w-YPS is the same for the 15Sept_6pmGMT*mapping.

Using straightline projection of the travel-speed&heading derived from the
ATCF coordinates spanning the 6hours between 12amGMT then 6amGMT :
H.Maria's travel-speed was 45.2mph(72.7k/h) on a heading of 34.6degrees(NE)
(33.75degrees is midway between NNE and NE)
H.Maria was headed toward passage over GreatBarasway,Newfoundland ~9hours from now

Copy&paste 45.992n59.6w-yps, 46.804n56.361w-fsp, 28.8n68.5w-31.2n67.8w, 31.2n67.8w-33.7n67.0w, 33.7n67.0w-36.8n64.9w, 36.8n64.9w-40.0n62.0w, yyt, 36.8n64.9w-47.113n54.077w into the GreatCircleMapper for more info

The previous mapping (for 16Sept_12amGMT)

* The alteration of the endpoint of a TropicalCyclone's previous path also changes its previous travel-speed &heading, and the endpoint of its previous straightline projection...
...but I'm choosing to preserve the historicity of the mappings.
Member Since: august 21, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 4860
924. Tropicsweatherpr
10:42 AM GMT on septembrie 16, 2011
Good morning to all. I am not abandoning this ship as I am seeing some are doing. I will continue to talk about the tropics in this Dr Masters blog and on my blog.

On another topic,I see that 00z GFS and ECMWF backed off from the CV development both had at yesterdays 12z.
Member Since: aprilie 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14761
923. THEYAREALLWAYSWRONG
10:41 AM GMT on septembrie 16, 2011
its starting to get very busy again after a lull
Member Since: septembrie 11, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 7
922. aquak9
10:38 AM GMT on septembrie 16, 2011
g'morning ais

was hoping I'd find you wandering aimlessly
you have wu-mail

wish I could send rain as easily as a click on the keyboard
Member Since: august 13, 2005 Posts: 175 Comments: 26495
921. aislinnpaps
10:27 AM GMT on septembrie 16, 2011
Good morning to any who are up and on. Missing the mornings with people here. It's 61 degrees and 87% humidity. But no rain.
Member Since: august 22, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 3166
920. nrtiwlnvragn
09:48 AM GMT on septembrie 16, 2011
Storm numbers somewhat deceiving

Excerpt:


To put it simply, storm season so far has been about quantity, not quality, so far. Only three storms, Irene, Emily and Katia, have grown into hurricanes. A key index called ACE — for accumulated cyclone energy, a measure that combines the intensity and longevity of storms — sits at just 20 to 30 percent above average.

“The distribution has been very unusual this year,’’ said Phil Klotzbach, a researcher who along with colleague William Gray produces Colorado State University’s closely watched long-term forecasts. The tally to date: Three hurricanes, two of them major, and a lot of fairly weak tropical storms, including — as Klotzbach put it — “two-short-lived pieces of garbage.’’ That would be Franklin and Jose.


Member Since: septembrie 23, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 11304
919. JLPR2
07:33 AM GMT on septembrie 16, 2011
Well now, read Dr. M's entry on Hurricane Hugo. Some really interesting stuff in there, awesome story! So glad they made it.

ULL still has an interesting look.



And with that I'm off to bed. Goodnight everyone!
Member Since: septembrie 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 8747
918. chaser1022
07:26 AM GMT on septembrie 16, 2011
Quoting Gearsts:
No not yet, there's still names from Africa to form aleast 2 more maybe 3.


The season is far from over at this point but conditions are looking to a slow down for this region for storms. don't let your guard down yet, a bite in the backside is what will get the downcasters
Member Since: iulie 9, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 9
917. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
07:24 AM GMT on septembrie 16, 2011
Member Since: iulie 15, 2006 Posts: 176 Comments: 55530

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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