Maria brushes Bermuda; 24-hour blitz by Climate Reality Project underway

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 02:27 PM GMT on septembrie 15, 2011

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Tropical Storm Maria is roaring past Bermuda, bringing winds near tropical storm force. At 11 am local time, winds at the Bermuda airport were sustained at 36 mph, just below the 39 mph threshold of tropical storm strength. Outer spiral bands of Maria have brought a few brief heavy rain squalls to the island, as seen on Bermuda radar. The core of Maria is now at its closest point of approach to the island, about 150 miles (240 km) to the west, and the island may yet see an hour of two of sustained winds of 40 - 45 mph. Maria is headed north-northeast, and will brush Newfoundland, Canada on Friday afternoon. Since Newfoundland will be on the weak (left) side of a rapidly weakening Maria, I'm not expecting much in the way of wind damage from the storm in Canada, though heavy rains may cause isolated minor to moderate flooding. Top sustained winds in St. Johns will probably be in the 25 - 35 mph range Friday afternoon, though a few hours of tropical storm force winds of 40 - 45 mph are possible if Maria ends up tracking farther west than expected.


Figure 1. Radar image of Tropical Storm Maria taken at 10:13 am EDT September 15, 2011. Image credit: Bermuda Weather Service.

Elsewhere in the tropics
Even the busiest of hurricane seasons have lulls, and we're hitting one this week during what is traditionally the busiest week of hurricane season. A westward-moving tropical wave a few hundred miles south of the Cape Verde Islands, off the coast of Africa, has a modest amount of poorly organized heavy thunderstorm activity. This wave is under a moderate 10 - 20 knots of wind shear, is in a moist environment, and is over warm waters, so has the potential for some development, though NHC is currently not mentioning it in their Tropical Weather Outlook. The UKMET and NOGAPS models predict this wave could develop into a tropical depression 5 - 6 days from now. The NOGAPS model continues to predict the Western Caribbean off the coast of Nicaragua could see the development of a tropical depression 6 - 7 days from now, but the other models are showing little support for this scenario.


Figure 2. Heidi Cullen of Climate Central introduces Boulder, Colorado teacher John Zavalney, one of the presenters of the Climate Reality Project's 24-hour live streaming special.

The Climate Reality Project
The Climate Reality Project (climaterealityproject.org) is a little more than halfway through their live, 24-hour streaming video effort that features 24 different presenters for 24 hours, representing every time zone around the globe. The presentations began last night at 7 pm EDT, and will end tonight at 7 pm EDT. It's worth checking out; there have been some interesting presentations and some dull ones. Interspersed with the presentations are panel discussions with some slick Google Earth graphics; last night's discussions were led by Heidi Cullen of Climate Central, who is a rarity--a very personable and well-spoken scientist, and someone you'll be seeing on TV much more in coming years. The Climate Reality Project showed one excellent video tracking the history of industry-funded denial of science that began with the tobacco industry, something I've discussed as well in post called The Manufactured Doubt Industry and the hacked email controversy. Also shown were two cute 15 - 30 second comedy videos. But while the Climate Reality Project's 24-hour blitz has already gotten 3 million people to tune in, its documentary-style tone and Powerpoint lectures will not be engaging enough to keep most visitors around for more than a few minutes. Ph.D. oceanographer Randy Olson, who left a tenure-track professorship to become a Hollywood film maker, has written an excellent book called Don't be Such a Scientist, about the failure of scientists to communicate in way that will engage people (I thought so highly of the book that I bought 20 copies of the book to give away to students at the University of Michigan's Department of Atmospheric Science this year.) In the latest post in his blog, The Benshi, Olson outlines how the climate community has failed in the main way needed to engage an audience: create a likable voice through the effective telling of stories, which is a less literal means of communication and is less cerebral and thus reaches a mass audience. Future efforts at communication by the climate science community really need to work on using the telling of stories by likable voices in order to get their message across, and I highly recommend that all climate scientists who do public outreach read Olson's book "Don't be Such a Scientist."

Jeff Masters

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Quoting sarahjola:
just got on a few mins. ago didn't read the discussion. i would think that it would be dying down more as it gets further north into cooler waters. guess i'm wrong


Not in cool waters yet, still at 28-29 °C, which is plenty to sustain Maria for the next 12-24 hours.
Member Since: iulie 6, 2010 Posts: 109 Comments: 30268
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


No, its an eye. As noted from the 11AM discussion from the National Hurricane Center:

"AN EYE...OPEN TO THE SOUTH...IS
APPARENT IN THE LATEST MICROWAVE IMAGES...ALTHOUGH THERE IS STILL
SOME TILT BETWEEN THE LOW AND MID-LEVEL CENTERS."
just got on a few mins. ago didn't read the discussion. i would think that it would be dying down more as it gets further north into cooler waters. guess i'm wrong
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Quoting seafarer459:

MAIL!


Back at ya.
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361. CJ5
Quoting Neapolitan:

Assuming you're talking about Solyndra, as many others have noted, the figure is $535 million. A lot, but far from half a trillion (and you shouldn't try to pretend those are just numbers; you were off by a factor of nearly 1,000 to 1). But those wishing to politicize this case should know a couple of things:

1) The Solyndra loan request was filed during the previous presidential administration;



Nice wording. Yes, it was "filed" during the previous administration who denied it. It was picked back up by the current administration and fast-tracked through. Emails and details are showing it was for political reason.

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7.3 in Fiji area.Wheres Neo?

A moment of awakening on all this global warming is needed, as it is of not one iota of importance to what we might do about global warming, based on what has happened in the recent past. What is the goal now is what are we going to do to prevent more of what has happened until the point is reached where we cant do anything!
In a few years all this CO2 is going to get out of hand with its effects, whatever they are.
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Quoting hurricanejunky:


Whatever Doug. No one in the history of the country has ever made an investment in something that failed, right? What about the auto industry loans? That's a great success story. Don't hear you talking about that. Also don't hear any mention of the Green energy success stories of which there are many.

Why don't you try watching something other than Fox Noise? Maybe you'd learn something. Your man crush JB is on there now so you should be a happy camper.



Can we say cash for clunkers? What a joke!! Auto Industry? Are you kidding? Another goverment run industry... Get real!!
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Just scanned the blog topic's for the day.

PATHETIC!
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Quoting hurricanejunky:


Didn't hear that "head of the line" BS when banks were paying bonuses to their executives before paying back the TARP money which was a BUSH started program.
Your hypocrisy is absolutely disgusting.


Its his opinion, stop bashing him.

Member Since: iulie 6, 2010 Posts: 109 Comments: 30268
Quoting hurricanejunky:


Whatever Doug. No one in the history of the country has ever made an investment in something that failed, right? What about the auto industry loans? That's a great success story. Don't hear you talking about that. Also don't hear any mention of the Green energy success stories of which there are many.

Why don't you try watching something other than Fox Noise? Maybe you'd learn something. Your man crush JB is on there now so you should be a happy camper.



That the best you got HJ. You all bet on the wrong horse.
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Member Since: iulie 6, 2010 Posts: 109 Comments: 30268
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


Also ECMWF shows the CV system. See post 242.


I am aware, that's why I said unanimous model support for it.
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Quoting sarahjola:
thats gotta be dry air, right?


No, its an eye. As noted from the 11AM discussion from the National Hurricane Center:

"AN EYE...OPEN TO THE SOUTH...IS
APPARENT IN THE LATEST MICROWAVE IMAGES...ALTHOUGH THERE IS STILL
SOME TILT BETWEEN THE LOW AND MID-LEVEL CENTERS."
Member Since: iulie 6, 2010 Posts: 109 Comments: 30268
Quoting JNCali:
Scientists get their funding from the gov't or corporations and in times past, the church. All of these institutions have an agenda. If you do not align with that agenda your continued funding is at risk.


Evidence?
Member Since: octombrie 30, 2005 Posts: 7 Comments: 5214
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
JSL imagery shows an eye associated with Maria open to the northeast.



That is way off topic here... ;)
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Quoting sarahjola:
man! bush is awesome! 3 years after he's out of office he is still running things in washington according to all obama supporters. just a little fact check for you, the bush adminstration denied that loan. look it up and stop believing everything you hear. and obama supporters say thats what republicans do:)i don't support bush, obama, clinton or any other jerk that has been in office or run for office since george washington. why don't we stop walking party lines and start using common sense. they all suck and they all work for special intrest not us! until we the people realize that fact, we will continue to be pit against eachother in the name of party. we should be united against these criminal politicians who continue to steal from us and lie to us. ALL OF THEM!!!! just remember "divided we fall". they are dividing us for a reason, and its not just obama. this has been going on for a long time now. obama is just another joker in the game.

Look in the brook. Clear water I see. Facts wading upstream.muddled the water for me.
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RGB:

Member Since: iulie 6, 2010 Posts: 109 Comments: 30268
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
JSL imagery shows an eye associated with Maria open to the northeast.

thats gotta be dry air, right?
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Quoting robodave:
We have done exceptionally well in the past few hundred years at progressing our species and breeching our atmosphere to land on the moon. We did it all with global warming. I think it's rather arrogant that people suppose that another hundred years or so of warming is bad when global warming is the very reason we have lived so well over the past several thousand years - since the last ice age. I know that I might be oversimplifying it, but I think that we're staring at the models too much and not living as we should and adapting to this changing world. Lets give it some time and see how it goes? Besides, right now, our economy is far too low to absorb the kind of costs the AGW lobby is asking for. And with global terrorism and rogue nation dangers reaching heights never imagined before, it's too risky to be spending billions on what's effectively a climate experiment. An experiment that would have broad ranging ramifications for all people on earth. I know some people want to risk the lives of people so that we might go forward with this experiment, but me, I am not willing to assume that risk just yet.

Thanks for listening. Peace.

And what of the other experiment, the one we're running now? You know, the one where we continue to increase CO2 in the atmosphere. Will the outcome of that experiment be better or worse than what you outline above? And on what do you base your answer?
Member Since: octombrie 30, 2005 Posts: 7 Comments: 5214
JSL imagery shows an eye associated with Maria open to the northeast.

Member Since: iulie 6, 2010 Posts: 109 Comments: 30268
Quoting Houstonweathergrl:
hcubed,
Just curious. Which news source is that?
Thanks


try here:

Bloomberg.com

As others have said, the US solar panel industry is doing just fine.

Except for SpectraWatt Inc (filed for bankruptcy protection Aug. 19), Evergreen Solar Inc. (filed on Aug. 15), and of course, Solyndra.

Next?
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Quoting Neapolitan:

Assuming you're talking about Solyndra, as many others have noted, the figure is $535 million. A lot, but far from half a trillion (and you shouldn't try to pretend those are just numbers; you were off by a factor of nearly 1,000 to 1). But those wishing to politicize this case should know a couple of things:

1) The Solyndra loan request was filed during the previous presidential administration;

2) The Solyndra loan represents just 1% of the DOE's $40 billion clean energy portfolio;

3) Though the US is the largest, there are many other creditors left holding the bag, include several well-known VC firms;

4) Most importantly, Solyndra's failure, while unfortunate, should not be construed in any way as a failure of solar energy or the solar industry, both of which are doing very well right now.

Just saying...




1: The Bush Administration cancelled the deal.
2: 500 Mill is still a fortune.
3 When its AMERICAN TAXPAYER money, WE should be at the head of the line of creditors when they go belly up, but we were not. Whose fault is that?
4: MOST importantly is the AMERICAN TAXPAYERS $500 mill.
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Quoting seafarer459:


Whole lotta data to digest in just a few minutes.Easiest one was the "Mauna Loa: Co2 data. Volcanic activity, has NOTHING to do, with mankind. Nice try. I may, or may not, be able to refute these claims. Nor, can you defend them. Prove me wrong, by explaining them, so that a novice may understand.

Take your time. I won't tell you how long it took me to digest it all. And it's not vanity that keeps me from telling. :)

Simplest explanation:
-CO2 is a greenhouse gas (GHG)
-GHGs retain heat
-Humans are pumping out about 30 billion tons of CO2/year
-Atmospheric CO2 concentration has increased nearly 40% in the Industrial Era
-The type of carbon (C) in the CO2 tells us that burning of fossil fuels is the chief culprit in the increase.

That isn't anywhere near a complete description, but that's the essence of it. Every bit of it is more than adequately supported by the science.
Member Since: octombrie 30, 2005 Posts: 7 Comments: 5214
Quoting nymore:
I was just pointing out green energy is not so green and as of yet there are no real answers to our problems. A few turbines in the Hudson river are not a solution a help yes a solution no. I am not grasping at straws just stating facts. I don't care how energy is produced one way or the other.


Uh, yes clean energy is absolutely clean. There is no pollution or waste that results from those energy sources. I was citing the Hudson river tidal turbines because they have produced 80 Megawatt hours for over two years now. That is nothing to sneeze at and will add one more viable clean energy source to our portfolio.
Member Since: august 28, 2006 Posts: 6 Comments: 2895
I'm feel like I will get banned if I post something about tropical weather on the blog.
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284 twincomanche "Check out the fate of Galileo. Get back to me please."

As I've posted earlier
Most of the prominent members on the Board of Inquisition had previously also been subject to an Inquisition themselves. The Renaissance equivalent of the grilling one would receive to obtain a PhD nowadays, so to speak. And basicly, they gave him a pass.

What got Galileo into trouble was a certain lack of people skills, and a far far more abysmal (as in "What deep dark hole did you just climb out of?") understanding of State and international politics.
The Pope had asked him some cogent questions about his theory. Galileo answered by publishing a treatise in which those same questions were asked by "The Idiot".
Which unfortunately put the Pope in a bind: let followers think that the Head of the Church allows people to slander&insult the Maker of Kings -- the Pope played both roles in WesternEurope at the time [as well as Head of State] -- or punish Galileo for his (knowing or not) impertinence.
The "punishment" of house arrest was about as mild as the Pope could get away with considering the times and the political implications. [Frankly I think it was closer to a truly protective custody.]
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hcubed,
Just curious. Which news source is that?
Thanks
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Quoting hurricanejunky:


Glenn Beck or Rush must have gotten it wrong yesterday. LOL!



The one's who got it wrong are the Obama Administration when they approved those loans. Keep your eye on the ball and quit trying to misdirect.
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Quoting Neapolitan:

Assuming you're talking about Solyndra, as many others have noted, the figure is $535 million. A lot, but far from half a trillion (and you shouldn't try to pretend those are just numbers; you were off by a factor of nearly 1,000 to 1). But those wishing to politicize this case should know a couple of things:

1) The Solyndra loan request was filed during the previous presidential administration;

2) The Solyndra loan represents just 1% of the DOE's $40 billion clean energy portfolio;

3) Though the US is the largest, there are many other creditors left holding the bag, include several well-known VC firms;

4) Most importantly, Solyndra's failure, while unfortunate, should not be construed in any way as a failure of solar energy or the solar industry, both of which are doing very well right now.

Just saying...
man! bush is awesome! 3 years after he's out of office he is still running things in washington according to all obama supporters. just a little fact check for you, the bush adminstration denied that loan. look it up and stop believing everything you hear. and obama supporters say thats what republicans do:)i don't support bush, obama, clinton or any other jerk that has been in office or run for office since george washington. why don't we stop walking party lines and start using common sense. they all suck and they all work for special intrest not us! until we the people realize that fact, we will continue to be pit against eachother in the name of party. we should be united against these criminal politicians who continue to steal from us and lie to us. ALL OF THEM!!!! just remember "divided we fall". they are dividing us for a reason, and its not just obama. this has been going on for a long time now. obama is just another joker in the game.
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Quoting HimacaneBrees:

MAIL!
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Quoting hurricanejunky:


No, we sunk a half billion dollars NOT trillion. That would be 500 million dollars. Let's not get into cherry picking money squandered in Washington. There are many green energy success stories that didn't get showcased on last night's news but they're out there. If your post wasn't so partisan, you might have mentioned that as well.


Well, the news also said that Solyndra is the third U.S. solar panel manufacturer to go bankrupt this month.

For example, Evergreen Solar inc. filed Chapter 11 on August 18th, citing Chinese competition, overcapacity in the U.S. industry, and the failure of the U.S. to adopt green policies as the reasons for its failure. It’s $33 million facility in China, however, may remain open.
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Quoting CybrTeddy:
Good to excellent model support (unanimous) that Ophelia will form off Africa starting on Sunday. CMC and NOGAPS (yea, laugh) are showing two systems. GFS, CMC, and NOGAPS show a system in the Caribbean. Also looks very possible we could see something brew from a front off the US Coast, just off South Carolina, in a few days as well.

Point is, season's still got at least 7 more storms left in her IMO.


Also ECMWF shows the CV system. See post 242.
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Quoting hurricanejunky:


No, we sunk a half billion dollars NOT trillion. That would be 500 million dollars. Let's not get into cherry picking money squandered in Washington. There are many green energy success stories that didn't get showcased on last night's news but they're out there. If your post wasn't so partisan, you might have mentioned that as well.


Lets not get into cherry picking?? $500 MILION BUCKS.
Get Real.
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Quoting hurricanejunky:
One other exciting benefit I've enjoyed from the climate change debate here is the long anticipated expansion of my iggy list. Thanks Doc M!


I sure hope I am on it..
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Quoting sarahjola:
ha ha ha! who dat!


I think I may get a ban for that, oh well it was funny and couldn't pass it up. See ya'll in a couple days.
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One other exciting benefit I've enjoyed from the climate change debate here is the long anticipated expansion of my iggy list. Thanks Doc M!
Member Since: august 28, 2006 Posts: 6 Comments: 2895
Meanwhile in the Tropics

ECMWF 144hrs out


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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


Don't tease us with tater tots...


looks good too golden brown moist on the inside
now i need to get some happens every time
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Good to excellent model support (unanimous) that Ophelia will form off Africa starting on Sunday. CMC and NOGAPS (yea, laugh) are showing two systems. GFS, CMC, and NOGAPS show a system in the Caribbean. Also looks very possible we could see something brew from a front off the US Coast, just off South Carolina, in a few days as well.

Point is, season's still got at least 7 more storms left in her IMO.
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Quoting hurricanejunky:


Really? Did you REALLY post a comment comparing nuclear waste to solar, wind and hydro? Uh, maybe renewables require those items in manufacturing but there is no pollution that comes from them in operation. I was referring to Hydro turbines which are being successfully used in the Hudson river (and other places) with no damming required or pollution or even harm to fish for that matter! Facts are stubborn things so quit grasping at straws.
I was just pointing out green energy is not so green and as of yet there are no real answers to our problems. A few turbines in the Hudson river are not a solution a help yes a solution no. I am not grasping at straws just stating facts. I don't care how energy is produced one way or the other.
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Scientists get their funding from the gov't or corporations and in times past, the church. All of these institutions have an agenda. If you do not align with that agenda your continued funding is at risk.

Member Since: septembrie 9, 2010 Posts: 5 Comments: 1032
Wow - come for the weather and get nothing but pap. Thanks papsters for ruining the blog.....
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Quoting HimacaneBrees:


I see what you did there..
Member Since: iulie 6, 2010 Posts: 109 Comments: 30268
Quoting hurricanejunky:


No, we sunk a half billion dollars NOT trillion. That would be 500 million dollars. Let's not get into cherry picking money squandered in Washington. There are many green energy success stories that didn't get showcased on last night's news but they're out there. If your post wasn't so partisan, you might have mentioned that as well.

Ummm.. Could you list those government green programs. Being someone, who actually pays taxes, I am curious.
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About JeffMasters

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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