Maria brushes Bermuda; 24-hour blitz by Climate Reality Project underway
Tropical Storm Maria is roaring past Bermuda, bringing winds near tropical storm force. At 11 am local time, winds at the Bermuda airport were sustained at 36 mph, just below the 39 mph threshold of tropical storm strength. Outer spiral bands of Maria have brought a few brief heavy rain squalls to the island, as seen on Bermuda radar. The core of Maria is now at its closest point of approach to the island, about 150 miles (240 km) to the west, and the island may yet see an hour of two of sustained winds of 40 - 45 mph. Maria is headed north-northeast, and will brush Newfoundland, Canada on Friday afternoon. Since Newfoundland will be on the weak (left) side of a rapidly weakening Maria, I'm not expecting much in the way of wind damage from the storm in Canada, though heavy rains may cause isolated minor to moderate flooding. Top sustained winds in St. Johns will probably be in the 25 - 35 mph range Friday afternoon, though a few hours of tropical storm force winds of 40 - 45 mph are possible if Maria ends up tracking farther west than expected.
Figure 1. Radar image of Tropical Storm Maria taken at 10:13 am EDT September 15, 2011. Image credit: Bermuda Weather Service.
Elsewhere in the tropics
Even the busiest of hurricane seasons have lulls, and we're hitting one this week during what is traditionally the busiest week of hurricane season. A westward-moving tropical wave a few hundred miles south of the Cape Verde Islands, off the coast of Africa, has a modest amount of poorly organized heavy thunderstorm activity. This wave is under a moderate 10 - 20 knots of wind shear, is in a moist environment, and is over warm waters, so has the potential for some development, though NHC is currently not mentioning it in their Tropical Weather Outlook. The UKMET and NOGAPS models predict this wave could develop into a tropical depression 5 - 6 days from now. The NOGAPS model continues to predict the Western Caribbean off the coast of Nicaragua could see the development of a tropical depression 6 - 7 days from now, but the other models are showing little support for this scenario.
Figure 2. Heidi Cullen of Climate Central introduces Boulder, Colorado teacher John Zavalney, one of the presenters of the Climate Reality Project's 24-hour live streaming special.
The Climate Reality Project
The Climate Reality Project (climaterealityproject.org) is a little more than halfway through their live, 24-hour streaming video effort that features 24 different presenters for 24 hours, representing every time zone around the globe. The presentations began last night at 7 pm EDT, and will end tonight at 7 pm EDT. It's worth checking out; there have been some interesting presentations and some dull ones. Interspersed with the presentations are panel discussions with some slick Google Earth graphics; last night's discussions were led by Heidi Cullen of Climate Central, who is a rarity--a very personable and well-spoken scientist, and someone you'll be seeing on TV much more in coming years. The Climate Reality Project showed one excellent video tracking the history of industry-funded denial of science that began with the tobacco industry, something I've discussed as well in post called The Manufactured Doubt Industry and the hacked email controversy. Also shown were two cute 15 - 30 second comedy videos. But while the Climate Reality Project's 24-hour blitz has already gotten 3 million people to tune in, its documentary-style tone and Powerpoint lectures will not be engaging enough to keep most visitors around for more than a few minutes. Ph.D. oceanographer Randy Olson, who left a tenure-track professorship to become a Hollywood film maker, has written an excellent book called Don't be Such a Scientist, about the failure of scientists to communicate in way that will engage people (I thought so highly of the book that I bought 20 copies of the book to give away to students at the University of Michigan's Department of Atmospheric Science this year.) In the latest post in his blog, The Benshi, Olson outlines how the climate community has failed in the main way needed to engage an audience: create a likable voice through the effective telling of stories, which is a less literal means of communication and is less cerebral and thus reaches a mass audience. Future efforts at communication by the climate science community really need to work on using the telling of stories by likable voices in order to get their message across, and I highly recommend that all climate scientists who do public outreach read Olson's book "Don't be Such a Scientist."
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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Wow, you're a trooper. I'm exhausted after today's blogging. It's like trying to reason with hurricane season.
Should note that I wrote the article I linked - so don't be too harsh with any criticism - I'm a fragile sort, you know ;)
Yes, I agree. I've read the worst part of a house fire is losing photos etc.
Not at 8PM, but probably 11PM.
Which poles? The magnetic poles are shifting continuously to some degree, if that's the poles you're interested in.
You know, an increase in the winds to 80-85mph.
I revised my comment, at first I saw the drop in T-numbers from 4.7 to 3.5, and I thought you meant a decrease in intensity. That wasn't the final T-number though.
OK..
That is just plain old scary. And it has nothing to do with the environment or even left or right...
Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N26°05'(26.1°)
E130°20'(130.3°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW Slowly
Central pressure 990hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed 20m/s(40kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 30m/s(60kt)
Area of 30kt winds or more NE560km(300NM)
SW390km(210NM)
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N26°10'(26.2°)
E129°35'(129.6°)
Direction and speed of movement Almost stationary
Central pressure 985hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 23m/s(45kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35m/s(65kt)
Radius of probability circle 130km(70NM)
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N26°10'(26.2°)
E128°55'(128.9°)
Direction and speed of movement Almost stationary
Central pressure 980hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 25m/s(50kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35m/s(70kt)
Radius of probability circle 200km(110NM)
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N26°10'(26.2°)
E128°10'(128.2°)
Direction and speed of movement Almost stationary
Central pressure 980hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 25m/s(50kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35m/s(70kt)
Radius of probability circle 300km(160NM)
Ha. Yeah, noticed that before posting it too.
HURRICANE MARIA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 37A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142011
800 PM AST THU SEP 15 2011
...MARIA ACCELERATING TOWARD SOUTHEASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND...
SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...36.8N 65.0W
ABOUT 915 MI...1475 KM SW OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 40 MPH...65 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB...29.15 INCHES
My insurance agent came up with a great idea, he gives out 8GB USB thumb drives to have people scan all their documents and pictures and recommends to buy a fire proof safe to keep everything in(paper docs, thumb drive, etc). I bought a 32GB and have every little item i could copy that means something to me, just in case...
Yes, photos and treasured items that were passed down from family. I was told it would take time, it's like a death, and it is.
Congratulations, interesting article
Yeah, kept at 75mph, and dang! Maria is moving fast.
How is your daughter doing?
Sorry i should have said in detail the N and S poles, not the magnetic ones. I think a slight shift has cause certain areas of the planet to get certain weather that they normally haven't gotten in many millions of years. IMO
*Click image to magnify (image can further be magnified in Link Window by clicking anywhere on it)
This should get you started.
Btw, if you ever want to get dizzy just stop to think of how many different directions we're moving and how fast. lol
Remember, that is how Gert formed.
I kept all my paperwork in an old ammo box I had painted blue. I kept it in my standing freezer. The box was rusted, but all my papers inside were perfectly fine. Hint if you do this though, put the box on the side where the door opens. We had a heck of a time getting into the melted freezer to the side opposite the side where the door opens.
Didn't Gert form from a piece of energy left behind by Emily? It was a ULL?
Oh! My insurance guy told me fireproof boxes may survive, but if the temp of the fire is extremely high, the heat inside the fireproof box can be enough to disintergrate the papers.
Hey cool, thanks for that, it's a paper I've been writing for 3 years and hoping to get it published when I'm done. I have heard some people think I'm crazy, but I'm good at math and been crunching numbers and variables from whatever statistics i can find on weather.
Upper level low rapidly organizes and becomes tropical storm Ophelia. LOL!
Okay, not to blow your mind, but my box is in another fire-proof box, so i'm thinking i'll be okay :)
Well, I believe the piece of Emily contributed, but the main reason for Gert's formation was that an Upper Level Low worked its way down to the surface, which is rare to say the least.
I would imagine that he believes we are all mature enough to have a discussion without all of the bickering.
Climate Change, AGW, GW where is this storm going and when will it make its turn, what causes cloud formations, how hot is hot or whatever, all seems to lead to us just bickering amongst ourselves. Pick a topic. Any topic. We will find a way to bicker our way through it.
Some will leave because of this. Some will ignore it. Some will come back later. Perhaps a small show of maturity is all that is needed to make this great blog an excellent blog. ... There is nothing wrong with diversity and opposing opinions.
BTW, I have never "minused", "ignored", "poofed" or "reported" anyone here. I never will.
Excellent article. Thanks. I read a lot of science fiction as a kid, so became enamored of the idea of living under a double sun. I assumed--and later read--that the tidal pull between, and necessarily rapid rotations of, the binary stars would lead to grotesque equatorial bulges, with either or both members displaying a prominent oblate spheroidal shape, and with the primary member drawing plumes of gaseous matter from its companion. I've also read that, because of this imbalance and the abnormal transfer of matter, binary systems would be unstable and thus only to last for a relatively short time. I'm sure a lot would have to do with the mass of the members, their sizes relative to each other, their relative ages, and, of course, the distance between them and eccentricity of their orbits.
Anyway, again: excellent. That's amazing...
People laughed at mine in the freezer, until they found out all my papers were safe. If it works, that's all that counts.
Just how slight is your proposed shift?
Then you might want to have a look at this link, too:
Link
Ah I see, then Emily's energy probably moistened the ULL. The one close to 20N and 58W is at that step of the transition progress, but as you said it is rare to make the jump.
Thanks as well, wow, thanks guys/girls for all the help for my research, glad i've got the weekend off to read.
+
It's been either feast or famine with rain in a lot of areas. I hope TX is getting some of the wet stuff, finally, at least somewhere.
So far this year I think we in ECFL are a little low.
The Cape Verde Wave Factory is in production mode.
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