Ophelia brushing Bermuda; Super Typhoon Nalgae hits the Philippines
Hurricane Ophelia is steaming northwards to the east of Bermuda as a powerful Category 3 hurricane with 120 mph winds. Radar out of Bermuda shows that rain bands from Ophelia are beginning to affect the island, though as of noon Saturday, the Bermuda airport has reported just one brief rain shower and a peak wind gust of 21 mph. Recent satellite loops show that Ophelia is well-organized, with a prominent eye, good upper-level outflow, and solid lower-level spiral banding. The models agree that Ophelia will track far enough to the east of Bermuda that the island should see sustained winds below 30 mph, since it will be on the weak (left) side of the storm. The 11 am wind probability forecast from NHC gave Bermuda a 19% chance of receiving tropical storm force winds of 39 mph, and no chance of receiving hurricane force winds. Ophelia's closest approach to the island will be late Saturday night through early Sunday morning. Ophelia is likely to bring high winds and heavy rains to Southeast Newfoundland Monday. The 11 am wind probability forecast for Cape Race, Newfoundland gave it a 47% chance of receiving tropical storm force winds, and a 1% chance of hurricane force winds.
Figure 2. Morning satellite image of Ophelia.
Tropical Storm Philippe no threat to land
In the middle Atlantic, Tropical Storm Philippe continues to struggle against dry air and high wind shear. Satellite loops show Philippe is a small system with little heavy thunderstorm activity, with the surface circulation partially exposed to view by wind shear. Wind shear is a very high 30 - 40 knots, thanks to the upper-level outflow from Ophelia. This shear will remain high through Tuesday, but may relax to the moderate range as Philippe turns towards the north on Wednesday. It is unlikely that Philippe will trouble any land areas.
Elsewhere in the Atlantic, none of the computer models is calling for a new tropical storm to form in the coming seven days (though the NOGAPS model shows a strong tropical disturbance forming in the Western Caribbean in about 7 days, something it has erroneously been predicting frequently during the past few weeks.) The large-scale environment over the Atlantic currently favors sinking air, due to the current phase of the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO). This situation will likely last well into next week, and will discourage formation of new tropical storms. The MJO is a 30 - 60 day cycle of thunderstorm activity that affects the tropics.
Figure 2. True-color MODIS image of Typhoon Nalgae approaching the Philippine Islands, taken at 02:15 UTC Friday, September 30, 2011. At the time, Nalgae was a strengthening Category 1 typhoon with 90 mph winds. Image credit: NASA.
Super Typhoon Nalgae hits the Philippines
Typhoon Nalgae roared ashore over the Philippines' main island of Luzon as a super typhoon with 150 mph winds at 9 am local time this morning. Nalgae dumped heavy rains of 4 - 8 inches across a large swath of Northern Luzon; 4.81" of rain fell on Viganon the northwest coast of Luzon. The capital of Manila received 0.30" of rain from Nalgae, and experienced wind gusts up to 36 mph. Nalgae is the second major typhoon in a week to hit northern Luzon; on Monday, Typhoon Nesat hit the same region as a Category 3 storm with 120 mph winds, killing at least 52 people. Nalgae's rains fell on soils already saturated from Nesat's heavy rains, and the potential exists for high loss of life due to extreme flooding and mudslides. Nalgae is expected to follow a track almost exactly the same as Nesat's, passing near China's Hainan Island on Tuesday, and then hitting northern Vietnam.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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Good afternoon all.
If that were to come to reailty, oh man...In any case, the statement by Dr. Masters saying that MJO won't return until the end of next week at least is very incorrect.
Good day for ASCAT all together me thinks...
You'd figure a major hurricane out there would cause some interest, but I guess not.
...because you're cursed.
LOL
Grrrr....lol.
Well, I answered your question.
Anyway, Philippe is firing some cold cloud tops.
Just ITCZ convection, not going to develop.
A little disturbance trying to strengthen, but almost nothing at the surface, for the moment.
Actually it's a little more complex than a simple disturbance, there is also a weak ULL in the area.
The 4 southern line-segments represent HurricaneOphelia's path,
the northernmost line-segment is the straightline projection for 1Oct_6pmGMT,
the coastline dumbbell at 45.876n59.991w-YPS is the endpoint of the 1Oct_12pmGMT
straightline projection connected to its nearest airport,
and the coastline dumbbell at 44.142n64.499w-YAW is the same for the 1Oct_6amGMT.
Using straightline projection of the travel-speed&heading derived from the
ATCF coordinates spanning the 6hours between 12pmGMT then 6pmGMT :
H.Ophelia's travel-speed was 21.8mph(35.1k/h) on a heading of 2.6degrees(N)
H.Ophelia was headed toward passage over WineHarbour,NovaScotia ~1days21hours from now
Copy&paste 44.142n64.499w-yaw, 45.876n59.991w-yps, 24.1n62.9w-25.5n63.0w, 25.5n63.0w-27.0n63.1w, 27.0n63.1w-28.5n62.9w, 28.5n62.9w-30.4n62.8w, 28.5n62.9w-45.037n61.85w into the GreatCircleMapper for more info
The previous mapping for 1Oct_6pmGMT
Philippe:
AOI:
They all look good in their respective categories.
Philippe: One "l", two "p"'s.
30-40 knots.
Eye temp has risen too. Probably strengthening again.
I'm rooting for you Ophelia! XD
TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE ADVISORY NUMBER 31
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172011
500 PM AST SAT OCT 01 2011
...PHILIPPE STRONGER THAN PREVIOUSLY ESTIMATED...
SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.2N 49.1W
ABOUT 1070 MI...1720 KM ESE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.41 INCHES
Has the look but will they upgrade without recon or buoy confirmation? I'm thinking not.
If it continues to build that ring of deep convection, yes, they will upgrade. I've noticed that is the basis for C4 status when a storm is in the middle of the Atlantic, aside from T-numbers.
Hey Taz, I'm thinking that we are going to see just 2-3 more storms. This early season cold front that has swept through the GOM has just about ended that chance of anything developing there. Wind sheer is screaming and the the air is really dry. I think we'll see one in the Caribbean (will either hang down there or move Northeast through Cuba and the Bahamas) and 1-2 out in the open Atlantic.
I think the chances of the U.S. getting a direct hit have gone way down.
True when a hurricane is in the tropics, but I haven't seen them do that without confirmation in the temperate zone for a long time.
In 1978 they did some recon missions into hurricane Ella and found her to be a Cat 4 far to the north. They hadn't expected that at all. Ella became a Cat 4 at 38 N. I believe at the time it was the furthest north a hurricane had become a Cat 4.
WTNT41 KNHC 012034
TCDAT1
HURRICANE OPHELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 37
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162011
500 PM AST SAT OCT 01 2011
OPHELIA HAS MAINTAINED ITS IMPRESSIVE CLOUD PATTERN...WITH DISTINCT EYE SURROUNDED BY A SYMMETRIC CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST. BECAUSE OBJECTIVE AND SUBJECTIVE T-NUMBERS HAVE NOT CHANGED...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 105 KNOTS. SMALL FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE EXPECTED IN THE NEXT 12 HOURS...BUT A GRADUAL WEAKENING SHOULD BEGIN ON SUNDAY AS OPHELIA REACHES COOLER WATERS. THERE IS A STRONG LIKELIHOOD THAT OPHELIA WILL BEGIN TO BECOME POST-TROPICAL ON MONDAY AS IT PASSES NEAR OR OVER THE AVALON PENINSULA IN NEWFOUNDLAND.
OPHELIA HAS BEGUN TO RECURVE AND IS NOW MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH OR 010 DEGREES AT 23 KNOTS. THE HURRICANE CONTINUES TO BE EMBEDDED IN THE FAST SOUTHERLY FLOW BETWEEN THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH AND THE LARGE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. AS THE TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD...OPHELIA SHOULD TURN MORE TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. THE TRACK GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE TIGHTLY PACKED...BUT THE ENTIRE ENVELOPE HAS SHIFTED A LITTLE BIT NORTHWARD FOR THIS CYCLE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS IN THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AND TAKES THE CORE OF THE HURRICANE EAST OF BERMUDA IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND BRINGS THE CENTER OF THE CYCLONE NEAR THE AVALON PENINSULA ON MONDAY.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 01/2100Z 31.6N 62.6W 105 KT 120 MPH
12H 02/0600Z 35.0N 62.0W 100 KT 115 MPH
24H 02/1800Z 40.0N 60.4W 90 KT 105 MPH
36H 03/0600Z 45.0N 56.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 03/1800Z 48.0N 48.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 04/1800Z 50.0N 31.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 05/1800Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
And IMO the straight line projections are interesting.
Even if all that comes to fruition I can't see a major retaining its strength all the way to the coast. Could be a Cat 1, and maaaaaybe a 2 if everything happened just right. I think the chance of anything beyond a Cat 1 is very low though.
Peninsular Florida still has a couple weeks to keep an eye out.
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