Unprecedented early-year heat smashes all-time records in Midwest
The first day of spring doesn't arrive until Tuesday, but Mother Nature has fast-forwarded past spring and gone straight to summer over the Midwest. Yesterday, large portions of Michigan, Illinois, Wisconsin, Minnesota, and Indiana recorded their all-time warmest temperatures for so early in the year, including the cities of Chicago, Minneapolis, Indianapolis, Milwaukee, and Lansing. Temperature records for these cities go back as far as 1863. Perhaps the most extraordinary record was set in Traverse City, Michigan, which hit 81°F--a temperature 42°F above the average high for the date, and four degrees warmer than any previous day so early in the year. Records go back to 1897 in the city.
Figure 1. Spring has arrived early in Sherrard, Illinois, and much of the Midwest, thanks to a record-breaking March heat wave. Image credit: wunderphotographer JourneysEnd.
Major airports that set all-time heat records yesterday
Chicago, Illinois hit 81°F; the warmest it's ever been this early in the year, going back to 1872, and 35°F above average. This ties the record set on March 12, 1990.
Springfield, Illinois hit 83°F, the warmest it's ever been this early in the year, going back to 1879, and 32°F above average. This ties the record of 83°F on March 13, 1918.
Rockford, Illinois hit 79°F, the warmest it's ever been this early in the year, going back to 1893, and 33°F above average. Previous record: 78°F on March 7, 2000.
Peoria, Illinois hit 81°F, the warmest it's ever been this early in the year, going back to 1883, and 31°F above average. Previous record: 80°F on March 12, 1990.
Minneapolis, Minnesota hit 73°F, the warmest it's ever been this early in the year, going back to 1872, and 33°F above average. This ties the 73°F reading of March 7, 2000.
Grand Rapids, Michigan hit 80°F, the warmest it's ever been this early in the year, going back to 1892, and 37 degrees above average. Previous record: 78°F on March 8, 2000.
Muskegon, Michigan hit 77°F, the warmest it's ever been this early in the year, going back to 1896, and 35°F above average. Previous record: 73°F on March 8, 2000.
Traverse City, Michigan hit 81°F, the warmest it's ever been this early in the year, going back to 1897, and 42°F above average. Previous record: 77°F on March 7, 2000.
Lansing, Michigan hit 79°F, the warmest it's ever been this early in the year, going back to 1863, and 36°F above average. This ties the record of 79°F on March 8, 2000.
Indianapolis, Indiana hit 81°F, the warmest it's ever been this early in the year, going back to 1871, and 30°F above average. Previous record: 80°F on March 8, 1974 and March 13, 2007.
South Bend, Indiana hit 81°F, the warmest it's ever been this early in the year, going back to 1893, and 35°F above average. Previous record: 80°F on March 8, 2000.
Evansville, Indiana hit 82°F, the warmest it's ever been this early in the year, going back to 1871, and 25°F above average. This ties the record of 82°F set on March 10, 1990.
Milwaukee, Wisconsin hit 78°F, the warmest it's ever been this early in the year, going back to 1869, and 36°F above average. Previous record: 77°F on March 7 and 8, 2000.
Madison, Wisconsin hit 78°F, the warmest it's ever been this early in the year, going back to 1869, and was 36°F above average. Previous record: 77°F on March 8, 2000.
Green Bay, Wisconsin hit 75°F, the warmest it's ever been this early in the year, going back to 1886, and 37°F above average. Previous record: 74°F on March 8, 2000.
Dubuque, Iowa hit 75°F, the warmest it's ever been this early in the year, going back to 1874, and 37°F above average. This ties the 75°F reading of March 12, 1990.
Data for the previous records was taken from NOAA's National Climatic Data Center (NCDC).
Why the record early-season warmth?
The unusual warmth is due to a loop in the jet stream that has created a large upper-level ridge of high pressure that is stuck in place over the Eastern U.S.--a phenomenon known as a "blocking pattern." Since the jet stream acts as the boundary between cold air to the north and warm air to the south, and the large loop in the jet places its axis far to the north of the eastern U.S., summer-like warmth has developed over the eastern half of the U.S. Conversely, colder than average temperatures have developed over the western third of the U.S. behind the southwards-dipping loop of the jet stream. There are at least three large-scale patterns working together right now to create an unusually strong high-pressure ridge over the eastern half of the U.S.:
1) La Niña. The on-going La Niña event in the Eastern Pacific has weakened considerably over the past month, but ocean temperatures there are still cool enough to affect the jet stream pattern, favoring high pressure and warm temperatures over the Eastern U.S., and low pressure and cold temperatures over the Western U.S.
2) The Madden-Julian Oscillation( MJO). The MJO is a 2-month cycle of thunderstorm activity that travels west to east along the Equator. The MJO is currently in phase with La Niña, and is helping create warmer temperatures over the Eastern U.S.
3) The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO.) The NAO is in its positive phase, which means the difference in pressure between the Icelandic Low and the Azores High is stronger than usual. This tends to increase the jet stream winds and keeps the jet from sagging southwards over the Eastern U.S.
While the blocking pattern responsible for the heat wave is natural, it is improbable that the intensity of the heat would have been so great unless we were in a warming climate. Climate scientist Dr. James Hansen has posted an interesting (as yet unpublished) paper discussing how the odds of such extreme heat events have shifted in recent years. I plan to discuss these concepts in more detail next week.
Figure 2. Predicted high temperatures for Thursday, March 15, 2012 over much of the Midwest are more typical of June than March.
The forecast
The summer-like heat continues today over the Midwest, with the greatest departures from average (30°+) expected over Wisconsin, Iowa, Illinois, Indiana, and Michigan. This area of 30°+ above average temperatures will expand to stretch from South Dakota to New York on Sunday and Monday, then gradually shift eastwards, extending from Wisconsin to Maine by Wednesday. The jet stream loop is predicted to grow more pronounced this weekend, and reach a truly extreme configuration on Monday and Tuesday. On those days, the predicted strength of the upper-level ridge of ridge pressure along the northern tier of states, from Wisconsin to Maine, will be typical of what we see at the height of summer, during July and August. The GFS and ECMWF models are predicting the height at where a pressure of 500 mb is found will range between 5760 - 5800 meters on those days--7% higher than the typical mid-March 500 mb heights of 5460 meters. Record-breaking summer-like temperatures will last until at least Friday, March 23, for much of the Midwest and Northeast U.S.
Extreme jet stream patterns like this often lead to tornado outbreaks in the Midwest, at the boundary of where warm, moist air flowing north from the Gulf of Mexico collides with cold, dry air flowing south. Cold dry air aloft, combined with warm, moist air at the surface, makes the atmosphere unstable, since air rising in thunderstorm updrafts will be less dense than the surroundings, allowing the air to accelerate upwards and increase the intensity of the thunderstorm. This will be the case on Sunday, when NOAA's Storm Prediction Center has highlighted a potential risk area for severe weather from Texas northwards through Nebraska. Fortunately, the winds of the jet stream are expected to blow almost due south to north over the region by Monday, which may limit the amount of cold air aloft that can overrun the warm air at the surface, resulting in a more stable atmosphere and a reduced chance of severe weather compared to Sunday.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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Political speech.
Aspectre,
Do you have a woodstove that you have been observing for forty years? This is not because of a slower air intake. The fire is and has always burned plenty hot. The problem is: I used to simply scrape the chimney cap off to clean it and now it is covered with tar-like drippy goo. If anybody out there has noticed a change in the way your wood burning stove burns in recent years, please comment.
I'm not saying you are wrong Aspectre, but couldn't the problem be that there is less oxygen in the atmosphere than there used to be? Or too much carbon dioxide?
So I was happily repairing an ancient Moorish tiled floor today when my attention was draw by a loud noise of a passing F 16 or something similar on its way to the base at "Moron de La Frontera," ( Please note after the arguments etc. we had last year ,this is a real place, with a real base on it, just down the road from me and even feature in W.Undergrounds list of weather sites!)
As I looked out of the gaping hole in the ancient wall I noticed that there was in front of me a "Poppy" growing wild and on the 15th of March a good month before I have ever seen one before!
If somebody can tell me how you lot attach photos? I will be happy to post one of the poppy, I might even be able to get a F 16 as a backdrop.
More seriously though, than trivia at work; this heat business is not good news for the Northern Hemisphere,28/c = 82/F here in Southern Spain today, no significant rain since April last year!
Everybody should be scratching their head with this storm.
Report of some trees down and homes hit.
I'd really like to know how this happened. The environment doesn't support these strong tornadic supercells today.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
535 PM EDT THU MAR 15 2012
MIC161-152230-
/O.CON.KDTX.TO.W.0004.000000T0000Z-120315T2230Z/
WASHTENAW MI-
535 PM EDT THU MAR 15 2012
...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR WASHTENAW COUNTY UNTIL 630
PM EDT...
AT 531 PM EDT...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED A TORNADO. THIS
TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR DEXTER...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 15 MPH.
TRAINED SPOTTERS CONFIRMED A TORNADO TOUCHED DOWN JUST NORTH OF
DEXTER.
THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
DEXTER AROUND 540 PM EDT.
DELHI MILLS AROUND 555 PM EDT.
BARTON HILLS AROUND 600 PM EDT.
ANN ARBOR AROUND 615 PM EDT.
DIXBORO AROUND 625 PM EDT.
YPSILANTI AND PITTSFIELD TOWNSHIP AROUND 630 PM EDT.
THE WARNING INCLUDES AREAS SURROUNDING THESE LOCATIONS...
WILLIS... DIXBORO... YPSILANTI...
SALINE... SALEM... MILAN...
DEXTER... ANN ARBOR...
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
TO REPEAT...A TORNADO IS ON THE GROUND. TAKE COVER NOW. MOVE TO AN
INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING. AVOID
WINDOWS. IF IN A MOBILE HOME...A VEHICLE OR OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE
CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.
&&
LAT...LON 4208 8380 4232 8400 4242 8398 4243 8355
4209 8354
TIME...MOT...LOC 2135Z 301DEG 13KT 4236 8389
$$
KURIMSKI
Gotta be Q.
That's slightly worrying...
Looks like we could get a powerful Caribbean major this year; we haven't really had one of those since 2007.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
535 PM EDT THU MAR 15 2012
MIC161-152230-
/O.CON.KDTX.TO.W.0004.000000T0000Z-120315T2230Z/
WASHTENAW MI-
535 PM EDT THU MAR 15 2012
...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR WASHTENAW COUNTY UNTIL 630
PM EDT...
AT 531 PM EDT...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED A TORNADO. THIS
TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR DEXTER...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 15 MPH.
TRAINED SPOTTERS CONFIRMED A TORNADO TOUCHED DOWN JUST NORTH OF
DEXTER.
THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
DEXTER AROUND 540 PM EDT.
DELHI MILLS AROUND 555 PM EDT.
BARTON HILLS AROUND 600 PM EDT.
ANN ARBOR AROUND 615 PM EDT.
DIXBORO AROUND 625 PM EDT.
YPSILANTI AND PITTSFIELD TOWNSHIP AROUND 630 PM EDT.
THE WARNING INCLUDES AREAS SURROUNDING THESE LOCATIONS...
WILLIS... DIXBORO... YPSILANTI...
SALINE... SALEM... MILAN...
DEXTER... ANN ARBOR...
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
TO REPEAT...A TORNADO IS ON THE GROUND. TAKE COVER NOW. MOVE TO AN
INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING. AVOID
WINDOWS. IF IN A MOBILE HOME...A VEHICLE OR OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE
CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.
&&
LAT...LON 4208 8380 4232 8400 4242 8398 4243 8355
4209 8354
TIME...MOT...LOC 2135Z 301DEG 13KT 4236 8389
$$
KURIMSKI
If there is a tornado on the ground I hope that it misses all populated ares
I'm very confused. These tornadic storms shouldn't be happening today. It's very scary, too, since nobody is prepared for tornadoes today.
It can sometimes mean that something has gotten hit and its debris.
Dr. Masters lives in Ann Arbor.
http://www.radioreference.com/apps/audio/?action= wp&feedId=3913
I know, not good for our chief
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
545 PM EDT THU MAR 15 2012
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN DETROIT/PONTIAC HAS ISSUED A
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTH CENTRAL MONROE COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN...
* UNTIL 630 PM EDT
* AT 544 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS DANGEROUS
STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR TEMPERANCE...AND MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.
* THIS DANGEROUS STORM WILL AFFECT MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF SOUTH
CENTRAL MONROE COUNTY.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
TAKE COVER NOW. MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF IN A MOBILE HOME...A VEHICLE OR
OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT
YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.
&&
LAT...LON 4173 8359 4177 8358 4181 8340 4180 8340
4179 8342 4179 8344 4175 8342 4174 8342
4173 8343
TIME...MOT...LOC 2145Z 254DEG 25KT 4175 8352
$$
SC/KURIMSKI
I'm sure Dr. Masters is prepared. He seems like the person who would be prepared for stuff like this.
I hope that debris is only trees
That's good.
Interesting. Isn't that the gas hog capitol of the world. I wonder if anyone is learning anything?
Yep.
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