Tropical Storm Debby has formed in the Gulf of Mexico
Tropical Storm Debby has been named by the National Hurricane Center this afternoon after hurricane hunters investigated Invest 96L and found a solid closed circulation, with maximum winds of 50mph and gusts up to 65mph. All interests along the Gulf of Mexico coast should pay attention to the progress of Debby. Debby is drifting north at 5mph. The storm has brought heavy rains to Western Cuba, South Florida, and Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula over the past two days, but the disturbance's heaviest rains are located well offshore over the Eastern Gulf of Mexico, where heavy thunderstorms are generating winds near tropical storm-force. A buoy 243 miles west of Naples, FL measured sustained winds of 31 mph, gusting to 38 mph, with 10-foot waves, at 8 am EDT Saturday morning. Our Wundermap for the surrounding ocean areas shows a large region of the northern and eastern Gulf of Mexico is experiencing winds of 20 - 30 mph.
Visible satellite loops show an unorganized tropical cyclone with an obvious surface circulation, though the thunderstorm activity is well displaced to the east. The heavy thunderstorm activity is slowly expanding and growing more intense. Upper-level winds out of the west continue to create moderate 10 - 20 knots of wind shear over the region, though that is expected to increase over the next few days. Water vapor satellite loops show a region of dry air over the central Gulf of Mexico, which will continue to interfere with Debby's development and make it hard for the west side of the circulation to maintain heavy thunderstorms. Ocean temperatures are about 28.5°C (83°F) in the Central Gulf of Mexico, which is about 1°F above average.
Figure 1. Saturday afternoon satellite image of Tropical Storm Debby in the Gulf of Mexico.
Figure 2. Saturday afternoon forecast track for Tropical Storm Debby.
Forecast for Debby
The National Hurricane Center is forecasting Debby to remain a tropical cyclone over the next 5 days as it drifts north and then west toward Texas. The Hurricane Center is forecasting a very slow progression of the storm, with a potential landfall not occurring until Friday. However, most of the models that predict the turn to the west suggest landfall will happen before or around Wednesday. The models are still generally split on the forecast for Debby; by Monday, the majority of the reliable models, including the ECMWF, NOGAPS, HWRF, and UKMET, agree that a ridge of high pressure will build in over the Southern U.S., forcing Debby west across the Gulf of Mexico and into South Texas by Wednesday. However, the GFS model, which has been our 2nd most reliable track model over the past two years (behind the ECMWF), has consistently been predicting that a trough of low pressure pushing off of the U.S. East Coast will be capable of grabbing the disturbance and accelerating it to the northeast across Florida north of Tampa Bay on Monday. The GFDL model splits the difference between these extremes and takes Debby north to a landfall near the Alabama/Florida border on Tuesday. The predicted track west to Texas is still the most likely outcome, though it remains a low-confidence forecast. In terms of intensity, none of the models is predicting Debby will become a hurricane, nor is the Hurricane Center. Though sea surface temperature is warm (and around 1°F above average), the actual heat content of the Gulf is relatively low. Wind shear is predicted to remain moderately strong through Sunday, but will increase to 30+ knots by Tuesday.
Debby's place in history (by Jeff Masters)
Remarkably, Debby's formation on June 23 comes a full two months ahead of the usual formation date of the season's fourth storm in the Atlantic, August 23. Debby's formation beats by twelve days the previous record for formation of the fourth named storm of the year in the Atlantic, set in 2005, when Hurricane Dennis was named on July 5. An early start to the Atlantic hurricane season has been increasingly common in recent years. In 2008, I blogged about the research of Dr. Jim Kossin of the University of Wisconsin, who published a 2008 paper in Geophysical Research Letters, titled "Is the North Atlantic hurricane season getting longer?" He concluded that yes, there is a "apparent tendency toward more common early- and late-season storms that correlates with warming Sea Surface Temperature but the uncertainty in these relationships is high". Three out of four of this year's early quartet of storms--Alberto, Beryl, and Debby--formed in ocean areas that were more than 1°F above average, which is an unusually high amount of warmth. We should expect to see more early-season Atlantic tropical storms as a consequence of global warming, since cool ocean temperatures are a key impediment to formation of such storms. However, this assumes that factors such as wind shear and atmospheric stability won't grow more hostile for tropical cyclone formation during the early part of hurricane season, and this is uncertain. If we do end up seeing a substantial increase in early-season tropical storms as a consequence of global warming, this is not necessarily a bad thing. Early-season tropical storms are often more boon than bane, bringing much-needed drought-busting rains, like Tropical Storm Beryl did for North Florida last month. With drought frequency and intensity predicted to increase for much of the Gulf Coastal states in coming decades, an increase in rainfall from early-season tropical storms may do more good than the damages inflicted by the high winds and flooding these storms may bring. There is typically a lot of wind shear around in May, June, and July, making it difficult for early season storms to reach major hurricane status. According to Wunderground's list of major early-season hurricanes, since record keeping began in 1851, there has been only one major hurricane in May, two in June, and nine in July. Three of these occurred in the past ten years, so there has not as yet been a large increase in early-season major hurricanes due to global warming.
References
Kossin, J., 2008, "Is the North Atlantic hurricane season getting longer?", Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 35, L23705, doi:10.1029/2008GL036012, 2008.
Angela and Jeff
Reader Comments
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What're they saying?
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
712 PM EDT SAT JUN 23 2012
FLZ063-066-067-070-071-240015-
GLADES FL HENDRY FL INLAND BROWARD COUNTY FL INLAND COLLIER COUNTY FL
INLAND PALM BEACH COUNTY FL
712 PM EDT SAT JUN 23 2012
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MIAMI HAS ISSUED A
* SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
NORTHWESTERN BROWARD COUNTY
WESTERN PALM BEACH COUNTY
SOUTHEASTERN GLADES COUNTY
HENDRY COUNTY
NORTHERN COLLIER COUNTY
* UNTIL 815 PM EDT
* AT 710 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 9 MILES
EAST OF WEST TOLL GATE ON ALLIGATOR ALLEY TO BIG CYPRESS SEMINOLE
INDIAN RESERVATION TO MILE MARKER 30 ON ALLIGATOR ALLEY...AND
MOVING NORTH AT 35 MPH.
* THE LINE OF STORMS WILL AFFECT...
BIG CYPRESS SEMINOLE INDIAN RESERVATION...
HENDRY CORRECTIONAL I/A/P...
ROTENBERGER WILDLIFE MANAGEMENT AREA...
AVE MARIA...
HOLEY LAND WILDLIFE MANAGEMENT AREA...
BIG CORKSCREW ISLAND...
AND SURROUNDING COMMUNITIES.
THE PRIMARY IMPACTS WILL BE GUSTY WINDS OF 45 TO 55 MPH. THESE WINDS
CAN DOWN SMALL TREE LIMBS AND BRANCHES...AND BLOW AROUND UNSECURED
SMALL OBJECTS. SEEK SHELTER IN A SAFE BUILDING UNTIL THE STORM
PASSES.
ALSO...THESE STORMS ARE DEVELOPING IN AN ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR
FUNNEL CLOUDS.
RESIDENTS NEAR THE PATH OF SHOULD REMAIN ON THE ALERT FOR ADDITIONAL
STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND OTHER LOCAL MEDIA FOR FURTHER
DETAILS OR UPDATES.
LAT...LON 2673 8157 2687 8109 2682 8105 2682 8095
2677 8094 2671 8081 2669 8074 2677 8075
2678 8073 2675 8071 2681 8070 2686 8064
2683 8047 2614 8051 2621 8094 2608 8156
TIME...MOT...LOC 2312Z 182DEG 29KT 2614 8151 2631 8094
2620 8054
$$
BAXTER
"DEBBY IS CURRENTLY A SHEARED CYCLONE WITH NEARLY ALL OF THE DEEP
CONVECTION LOCATED IN A CURVED BAND TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER.
HOWEVER...AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO
IS FORECAST TO DIG SOUTHWESTWARD...WHICH WILL RESULT IN A DECREASE
OF VERTICAL SHEAR AFFECTING THE SYSTEM...AND A GREATER CHANCE OF
INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. BECAUSE THE OFFICIAL TRACK
FORECAST IS SO DIFFERENT FROM THE GFS SOLUTION...THE GFS FIELDS USED
BY THE SHIPS AND LGEM MODELS ARE NOT LIKELY TO BE REPRESENTATIVE OF
THE CONDITIONS ENCOUNTERED BY DEBBY. THE NHC FORECAST THEREFORE
SHOWS MORE STRENGTHENING THAN INDICATED BY THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE.
DEBBY IS THE EARLIEST 4TH STORM IN THE HISTORICAL RECORDS...
SURPASSING HURRICANE DENNIS OF 2005...WHICH BECAME A TROPICAL STORM
ON JULY 5TH."
Minimal hurricane into TX
Quite a shift northward. I'm sure it will be shifting numerous more times.
Debby is extremely large...luckily there's no convection on the western side, as it would really explode.
Wow...looks to be going more towards upper TX coast!
18z Early Cycle NHC model tracks
TS Debby
Statistical/Simple Models (CLIPER,BAMs,LBAR,other Statistical Models)
Dynamic Models (More sophisticated models)
Early Model Wind Forecasts
If the upper level low ever does get out of the way, I'm thinking bad news for someone.
I agree
Yeah. I could see this potentially, eventually becoming a Category 2 hurricane.
Then explain the TS warnings for the eastern half of the LA coast? Not coming near there huh?
It's such a large system so its impacts will be far-reaching.
Yep had a quick .10" in 5 min with loud thunder race thru my area north of Gulfport.
My you have been busy!
Having read the blog story, I just love this line!:-
"there is a "apparent tendency toward more common early- and late-season storms that correlates with a warming Sea Surface,"
This might be what is called "obvious," you heat up the pan and you get 'steam' this condenses and falls as consolidated damp, for want of a better words, more heat, more damp falls.
I thought according to the gurus of the clouds, damp patches and the odd breezes that we were supposed to be having a quiet season this year! Good job some of us thought otherwise, or everybody would be surprised by these premature ruffling's of the seas surface.
Oh, welcome to 'Storm D.'
"Now about 'E'?
But when is the ULL forecast to stop affecting her?
When it comes with these systems, you really gotta put your faith in them - I do see their reasoning. The models showed this developing when it did, and have done an excellent job with genesis, especially the ECMWF (what else is new?), as the ULL moves out of the way you will see it begin to ventilate the system, it will also plunge less dry air into the circulation. Honestly, it's not a lot.. it's hardly visible on water vapor but it's there, and it's not really so much as it's just doing a toll on the organization right now, but that will change when the shear lessens.
There's ample room for this thing to intensify quickly once convection begins to wrap around the circulation.
It's current low-level center is just entirely too strong and dominant for another to form.
Beautiful IMO.
Yes, i was just looking at the same thing.
All the tankers are dealing with other fires in the state. We don't have one here.
Due to her size, she will impact SE LA as she passes or stalls out when she finishes going north. But if she begins her SW direction as most expect, she will then head away from the rest of LA. Of course, I'm just writing what I understand from what I see and read.
Storm Relative 1km Geostationary Visible Imagery
That would be way farther east than most of the "west" models ever have her going.... wonder how the center re-location (if it holds true) would affect the models that take her west?
I think that the NHC's COC is the most dominant/only COC.
The NHC center fix has been a well developed circulation for 3 days now.
Convection is starting to slowly build further westward.... signs are that shear is beginning to slacken a bit.
18Z GFDL switched that way, a weak system
HOUR: .0 LONG: -87.78 LAT: 25.94 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1002.05 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 31.99
HOUR: 6.0 LONG: -88.41 LAT: 26.32 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1000.37 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 31.46
HOUR: 12.0 LONG: -89.03 LAT: 26.71 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1000.67 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 29.23
HOUR: 18.0 LONG: -89.03 LAT: 27.12 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1001.57 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 29.95
HOUR: 24.0 LONG: -88.44 LAT: 27.79 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1000.13 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 38.20
HOUR: 30.0 LONG: -88.59 LAT: 27.96 MIN PRESS (hPa): 998.64 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 40.61
HOUR: 36.0 LONG: -88.90 LAT: 28.11 MIN PRESS (hPa): 997.67 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 41.51
HOUR: 42.0 LONG: -89.08 LAT: 28.15 MIN PRESS (hPa): 997.51 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 36.76
HOUR: 48.0 LONG: -89.28 LAT: 28.37 MIN PRESS (hPa): 997.78 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 33.25
HOUR: 54.0 LONG: -89.90 LAT: 28.19 MIN PRESS (hPa): 997.49 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 32.50
HOUR: 60.0 LONG: -90.47 LAT: 28.28 MIN PRESS (hPa): 997.96 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 31.71
HOUR: 66.0 LONG: -91.10 LAT: 28.49 MIN PRESS (hPa): 998.54 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 35.53
HOUR: 72.0 LONG: -91.63 LAT: 28.91 MIN PRESS (hPa): 998.89 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 28.16
HOUR: 78.0 LONG: -92.61 LAT: 29.17 MIN PRESS (hPa): 997.49 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 33.17
HOUR: 84.0 LONG: -93.54 LAT: 29.14 MIN PRESS (hPa): 997.64 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 24.29
HOUR: 90.0 LONG: -93.88 LAT: 29.49 MIN PRESS (hPa): 999.31 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 26.22
HOUR: 96.0 LONG: -94.25 LAT: 29.88 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1000.59 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 25.10
HOUR:102.0 LONG: -94.94 LAT: 29.93 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1000.84 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 21.46
HOUR:108.0 LONG: -95.29 LAT: 30.11 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1001.90 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 24.53
HOUR:114.0 LONG: -95.17 LAT: 30.44 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1001.79 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 27.48
HOUR:120.0 LONG: -95.12 LAT: 30.55 MIN PRESS (hPa): 998.16 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 27.78
HOUR:126.0 LONG: -95.19 LAT: 30.87 MIN PRESS (hPa): 997.44 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 25.22
I am seeing the same thing...
Gulf Of Mexico - Rainbow Loop
Transmitted: 23rd day of the month at 22:53Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 302)
Mission Purpose: Investigate first suspect area (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 1
Observation Number: 14
A. Time of Center Fix: 23rd day of the month at 22:18:40Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 26°04'N 87°45'W (26.0667N 87.75W)
B. Center Fix Location: 304 miles (489 km) to the S (186°) from Pensacola, FL, USA.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 1,428m (4,685ft) at 850mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 48kts (~ 55.2mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 109 nautical miles (125 statute miles) to the NE (50°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 118° at 53kts (From the ESE at ~ 61.0mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 129 nautical miles (148 statute miles) to the NE (50°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 1001mb (29.56 inHg) - Extrapolated
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 18°C (64°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,524m (5,000ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 19°C (66°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,525m (5,003ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 16°C (61°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Not Available
M. Eye Shape: Not Available
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Levels (sfc and flt lvl centers are within 5nm of each other): Surface and 850mb
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 10 nautical miles
Remarks Section:
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 61kts (~ 70.2mph) in the north quadrant at 20:20:30Z
Sea Level Pressure Extrapolation From: 850mb
Could see the winds bumped up to 60mph.
Viewing: 401 - 451
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