Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Here's something interesting. According to this, last year the North Atlantic actually had more storms than the Northwest Pacific (28-24)! The Pacific had one more hurricane (or typhoon) and two more majors, but the Atlantic had twice as many cat 5s. And according to wikipedia, the lowest recorded pressure in the Pacific was 898 mb (Super Typhoon Haitang), which was exceeded by both Rita and Wilma in the Atlantic. I don't ever remember a time where the Atlantic has ever outdone the NW Pacific like that before. Here's hoping for a nice quiet '06.

Record-setting warmth in the KC area today...low 90s!

It's 97 in Wichita right now...man that is waaay to hot for April 13.

Yeah, last year was crazy.

Wow, I thought 81 was bad, but that is rediculous.

*raises hand*

Take a look at this! Link

Anyway have an answer to this question:

I remember reading somewhere that if South Florida has a dry March? April? May? that then there is a higher chance that South Florida will have a hurricane...is this true?

yeah that disturbance will be a distant memory soon, no rain for south florida from it.

Colby...please explain to me what I am looking at in your link.

SMU,

I'm no expert but to answer your question about the dry spring having an effect on the hurricane season does correlate. For in the spring, the La Nina pattern which we are experiencing is causing the lack of rainfall in that area. La Nina years are also typical for bringing above normal hurricane activity to the Atlantic Basin. So you are correct.

Giants in 06

When South Florida gets less than 1 inch of rain in May they usually get a hurricane.Nobody knows if that is a coincidence or not.

The storms in Iowa (about to cross into Illinois) are looking pretty strong. There are a couple of tornado warnings with them right now.

Dry Florida Springs and higher chance of landfall is not really a coincidence. It is partly because of the La Nina's influence on dry springs and active hurricane seasons. Obviously an active hurricane season gives a higher chance of a landfall over a inactive season.

Also, another reason for dry Springs in Florida more specific then just 'La Nina' is that dry weather means high pressure is consitantly in control and low pressure troughs cannot bring us moisture outside the rainy season. During the heart of summer/rainy season, moist high pressure leads to afternoon thunderstorms. But until Late May/Early June the high pressure system is too dry for rain. However, a consitant high pressure system over the East Coast early in the year leading to a dry Spring ussually correlates to the same high pressure system over the East Coast during hurricane season, and a higher chance of landfall since theres less chance of recurvature

I hope that explains to some why dry Springs normally correlate with a higher then likely chance of landfall instead of recurving back out to see.

LOL, last word should be 'sea' not 'see'.

But anyways, I hope that this year's dry Spring doesn't fortell the coming hurricane season. It's unlikely that we'll have 20 or more storms, but you only need one in your area for it to matter to you.

"I hope something is mentioned about my tunnel idea there!!"

I give the disturbance more chance.

What you're looking at is a graph of several factors of tropicalness (is that a word?). The lines are by time, A is the cyclone's start, C is current, and Z is end of cyclone or model run.

This is the hail forecast for tonight.


And this is the wind forecast.


I am in the 30% risk area for both hail, and wind.

What does la Nina have to do with Hurricane Seasonal Activity

Posted By: ForecasterColby at 1:10 AM GMT on April 14, 2006.
What you're looking at is a graph of several factors of tropicalness (is that a word?).

I checked Dictionary.com to see if "tropicalness" is a word, and the answer is no. Having said that, no one on this site cares whether you are making up new words. As far as I'm concerned, it is completely acceptable.

La Nina causes causes many changes in seasonal climate around the world. One seasonal change is that when La Nina is present during the N. Hemisphere summer it causes lower then normal levels of shear across the Atlantic. This generally causes a more active season then ussual.

I think that when we are in a La Nina phase, wind shear values are usually lower than normal. This provides a more favorable enviroment for hurricanes to develop.

Wow, NEXRAD says one of the cells in that thunderstorm cluster is producing greater then 4 inch hail. Hope those people are safe out there.

Well nvm, it's lowered down to 3 inch diameter now. Still nothing to scoff at, though. There's a couple of severe weather watches so I guess it's possible that more thunderstorms will develope.

There have been 8 tornado reports, and also a report of 4.25 inch diameter hail.

Link

Well, if I remember correctly, the last time this happened, the first storms weakened prior to reaching the lakes, and then later in the day, Chicago was slammed with 70 mph winds.

Here are the wind reports for Cook County in Illinois, from March 12.

0642 75 CHICAGO COOK IL 4188 8763 VAN BUREN AND CENTRAL (LOT)
0648 70 TINLEY PARK COOK IL 4157 8780 171ST AND HARLEM (LOT)
0650 UNK BRIDGEVIEW COOK IL 4174 8781 77TH AND HARLEM. ROOF BLOWN OFF APARTMENT COMPLEX (LOT)
0650 60 MELROSE PARK COOK IL 4190 8786 (LOT)

I don't find that as interesting as this.

Only a 5% risk in that area and they have 15 tornado reports.

Obviously, when it comes to severe weather, a lot more research is needed.

Dr Masters~ Any reports back from the up coming conference would interesting...

A few presentations that caught my eye~

Tropical cyclone climatology in a global warming climate as simulated in a 20km–mesh global atmospheric model stating~

A comparison of the experiments suggests that the tropical cyclone frequency in the warm-climate experiment is globally reduced by about 30% (but increased in the North Atlantic) compared to the presentday-climate experiment. Furthermore, the number of intense tropical cyclones increases. Some of the papers in your blog mention the increase in North Atlantic storms but baffled as to why. I've seen no con on the other side, so that data is good? & does this article as to why really hold the answers?

Could hurricanes form from random convection in a warmer world?

Precursor climate aspects of the 2005 Atlantic hurricane season

& of course A device to control sea surface temperature and effects on hurricane intensity The pump idea using the wave action is ingenious, allowing the bottom of the "tube" to be 1km deep, not dependant on a gulf stream, for bringing cooler water to the surface than say the tunnels. Though I couldn't support the idea of tubes in the sea.

Right after the tubes 3:30 PM-5:15 PM, Monday, Regency Grand Ballroom~ Gray & Emmanuel, back to back on the globial warming & hurricanes issue. Wish they felt they could remain civil enough to agree to a debate. Could set an example of how this all can be discussed without getting out of hand.

Wow...hard choices as to where to spend your time.

I just do not like the idea of cooling the SST... Now we here like to get in the GOM when it has warmed to 80 plus degrees, and if they cool the water not only will the marine life have problems but it could cause damage to the reefs that are out there... Now I fill very strong about that and they should not mess with Mother Nature if you know what I mean...

agreed~ we've messed with mother nature enough. What would the effects of the salinity of the 1km depth be to the enviroment of the surface? Also notice on the 1000m that to go that deep, you can't obtain water around the populated areas where hurricanes generally roam. & cooler ocean temps could be bad for tourism.

I'm not sure if anyone has posted on this yet.

Apparently the U.S. and Taiwan have joined forces to use the bend in GPS signals as they pass through the atmosphere to get high resolution picture of what's going on in the atmosphere down to about 1500ft above the surface. This would enable readings over open oceans where there are none now, with the possibility of increasing computer model forcast accuracy for every corner of the earth.

Here's a optimistic quote and a link to the article on space.com...

"'I am very excited about the project. The planning for this started in the fall of 1997. Nine years have passed since then. I firmly believe that COSMIC will revolutionize atmospheric remote sensing for weather prediction, climate monitoring, and space weather forecasting. GPS radio occultation technique is very accurate, of high vertical resolution, and is also very cost-effective,' Kuo said."

Link

Hopefully this thing makes it off the launch pad in one piece. What are your thoughts on this project Dr. Master, or anyone else?

- acduke

why would global warming decrease the number of hurricanes? increased shear? more intense hurricanes leading to more efficient cooling of water and shadowing or absorbing small ones?

I am getting a very nice light show right now.

Tornado Watch for portions of Illinois and Indiana.

I am barely outside the tornado watch area.

There is a Moderate Risk of severe weather tomorrow for portions of Nebraska and Iowa.