Bryan Norcross's Hurricane Almanac: a book review
Bryan Norcross, Hurricane Analyst for CBS's national news and Director of Meteorology for WFOR-TV in Miami, has just written his second annual Hurricane Almanac: The Essential Guide to Storms Past, Present, and Future. Bryan is famous for his marathon on-air performance during Hurricane Andrew of 1992, when he talked people through the storm as their homes came apart around them. His book is a great addition to the bookshelf of anyone living in Hurricane Alley. Like any almanac, it has information on a variety of topics, and is not meant to be read straight through. My favorite part was his 5-page description of his Hurricane Andrew experience--and the lessons we should have learned from it, but didn't. Some other highlights:
Ready, Set, Hurricane!
The book's greatest strength is the impressive 134-page section that provides checklists and practical information on how to prepare, ride out, evacuate, and recover from a hurricane. There are so many things to think of that having them available in a handy book one can pick up anytime makes Hurricane Almanac a great book to have. When preparing for a hurricane, you'll find tips on what storm shutters and generator to buy, what to do with your pet, computer, boat, pool and car, and how to make a Family Hurricane Plan. Bryan also boosts a web which I also like, onestorm.org. This is a free hurricane preparedness web site that helps you put together a family hurricane plan.
I like how the book emphasizes the most important things it wants you to know. In the case of the Ready, Set, Hurricane! section, Bryan emphasizes this:
IF YOU DON'T DO ANYTHING ELSE, DO THIS!
-Contact a friend or relative out of town and ask him or her to be your family's emergency contact.
-Before the storm, be sure that every member of the family has a piece of paper on them that says, for example:
EMERGENCY CONTACT
AUNT MILLY IN NJ
201-555-5555
-Call Aunt Milly before the wind starts blowing to tell her exactly where you are and what you are planning to do.
-Be sure everybody knows that they should call Aunt Milly if they get lost or anything bad happens.
It's important that your main contact person is out of town, because local calls are more likely to be disrupted after a storm. Both ends of local connections are subject to problems.
Another interesting fact I learned from Hurricane Almanac: You can send an email message to any cell phone able to receive text messages by emailing to XXX-XXX-XXXX@teleflip.com (replace the X's with the phone number of the person's cell phone). The message will be forwarded to any cell phone provider in the U.S.
Hurricane Almanac also details what to do after the storm--how to deal with FEMA and your insurance company, save water-damaged possessions, and purify your drinking water. Additional chapters include an excellent summary of all the various National Hurricane Center advisories and how to interpret them, the basics of hurricane science, and a summary of some of the famous storms in the past. The opening chapter includes a very passionate critique of our emergency management system, building codes, and the politicians who fail to adequately protect us against hurricanes. A sample quote:
That President Bush, DHS Secretary Michael Chertoff, and the head of the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, General Carl Strock were completely misinformed and saying ridiculous things for days and weeks after the Katrina disaster is frightening. These people know when a pin drops in Afghanistan. How can they not know when a levee breaks in New Orleans? The evidence says that the communications and operational infrastructure of the federal government broke down. We should all be very concerned.
Hurricane Almanac (335 pages, softcover) is $10.39 from amazon.com. It's not fancy--all the photos and figures are black and white (if you want a coffee table hurricane book with beautiful color photos and figures, get Dr. Kerry Emanuel's Divine Wind. An added bonus for Hurricane Almanac is a companion web site, hurricanealmanac.com. The web site is not fancy, but does have some useful links and a page that allows you to send Byran emails with suggestions and/or fixes for the 2008 version of his book.
The book also has a provocative chapter titled, "How I'd do it better," that I'll comment on in a future blog.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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there will be hurricane land fall this year so i am not sure what they are talking about there will be hurricane land fall in the United States mainland this year may be not right a way but there will be a few of them
DONT GO BY THE FORCAST!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
IWIC 2007 Atlantic Basin Hurricane Season Forecast
By Rob Mann and Jason Moreland
As of May 25, 2007
ABSTRACT
Data obtained throughout the past several months indicates that 2007 Atlantic Basin hurricane activity will be somewhat above the long-term average, with an estimated 13 named storms, 8 hurricanes, and 3 major hurricanes. An abnormally high number of tropical cyclones will form east of the Lesser Antilles during the bimonthly period of August and September, with at least one significant hurricane striking the northeast Caribbean. The Yucatán Peninsula also faces a high risk of a major hurricane strike during the final third of the season. No tropical cyclone landfalls are expected along the United States mainland.
DONT GO BY IT YOU BE SORRY IF YOU DO!!!!!!!!
In short, while I'd agree that there may be too many people making such forecasts - perhaps people just trying to grab headlines with little scientific backing. But, in principle, these seasonal predictions are neither illegit nor useless. Even if you believe they are useless in a practical sense (which even I'd admit they may be... the old "it only takes one" adage), the competition for better predictions is a basis for furthering the understanding tropical cyclone development.
Last time, though, it was more vigorous and still amounted to nothing.
Wait and see.
One thing that bothers me is the timing of their forcast release. It brings up the question of how much are they waiting for the more established forcasts' results and then hedging their bets, by skewing their forcast towards the normal long-term average.
(Ask any poker player, sometimes the bluff will win you the pot.)
Seconded!
The NW Caribbean has been seeing a lot of rain over the last 24 hrs and today looks to be no different. Of local interest is that surface pressures have been relatively low In Grand Cayman from yesterday and when I left home this morning stood at 1012.6 mb
No tropical cyclone landfalls are expected along the United States mainland.
At least not as early as May 25th
funny..if they had made that statement last year...they'd be heroes....
Now, as history has told us, the season prior to the one the Independents are forecasting is going to have a large influence on the number of storms they forecast. Unfortunately I don't have any 2006 predictions to use as examples. But I'm sure y'all all remember them and how crazy they were.
Any who I've got one here for 2007 that seems to make my point:
Stormchaser77's Pre Season Storm Prediction’s:
1- Less Storms Than Everyone Is Predicting.
2- No Storms Affecting North Florida.
3- No Storms Affecting the Gulf Coast.
4- Less Than 10 Named Storms Total.
I really can't find any basis for this forecast except that 2006 was an average year.
It seems the "Aftertaste" of the prior season lingers just long enough to affect those who forecast.
Now here are my worthless 2 cents.
----Hellsniper's prediction 2007:
15-16 Named
6-8 Hurricanes
3-5 Major
(Possible landfalls)
Landfalls along the gulf:
(Mississippi, Louisiana, Alabama, Extreme western FL Panhandle.)
Landfalls along the Fl peninsula, from Cedar Key southward.
Landfalls along the Georgia and Carolina coastlines.
When I was a kid about 45 yrs ago there was a famous female pychic who made predictions on the upcoming hurricane seasons. My dad always looked forward to it. Do any of you remember her? Interesting feature east of the yucatan maybe it will eventually help Fl with some rain.
The NAM develops a low in that general area over the next day or two as well as a low over the Cayman Islands by the 28th
doesn't look like much is happening
Everyone's assuming what the season might have. If you assume, you make an ass outta u and me.
count down: 7 days....
Can't be sure on this, but the best solutions appears to be wetter one :), lets pray it pans out, Ive been longing for this to start, lol.
We just observe weather events; obviously, we can't control their intensity or where they will go. When conditions are right, storms fire up. What happens then becomes a product of their existence...
I grew up along the water, so every variation was before me on a dramatic level: Clouds change its color; Winds change its texture. Weather even changes the smell of the air.
No one wants anything bad to happen to anyone or their property. We are simply here on the planet, watching, feeling and thinking about what's happening.
In the meantime, it's fun to guess; obviously, the closer we get to ideal conditions, the better we can predict events.
what if a storm hits the US mainland from the west?
(even less likely than usual this year due to water temperature)
.LONG TERM...
SOME STRONG CHANGES ARE NOTICED IN THE EXTENDED RUN OF THE NORTH
AMERICAN MODEL SUITES. THE GFS IS THE MOST AGRESSIVE AT BRINGING A
STRONG CANADIAN STYLE COLD FRONT DOWN ONCE AGAIN BY JUNE 2-3RD.
SINCE THIS TIME FRAME WILL BE JUNE AND CLIMATALOGICALLY THIS
DOESN`T NORMALLY OCCUR...CAN NOT GO WITH THIS SCENARIO ATTM. THIS
IS THE FIRST MODEL CYCLE TO SHOW THIS AND I CANT SAY ITS NOT
GOING TO HAPPEN BUT IT IS GETTING THE POINT IN THE SEASON THAT IT
IS EXTREMELY RARE. THAT SAID...I HOPE THIS CONTINUES TO SHOW IN
SUCCESSIVE MODEL RUNS. THE MORE COLD FRONTS PASS IT ADDS A FEW
MORE DAYS OF SUMMER THAT NO INCLIMATE TROPICAL WEATHER WILL AFFECT
US.
IF CANADIAN COLD FRONTS MOVING THROUGH THE DEEP SOUTH DURING THE
SUMMER ARE A PRODUCT OF GLOBAL WARMING...IM NOT COMPLAINING.
Wrong...it was posted at 10:48 CDT.
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