Preliminary damage estimates from the June 2008 Midwest flood puts agricultural damage in Iowa alone at $1.0 billion. At least another $1.0 billion in property damage has likely occurred--$762 million of that in Cedar Rapids, Iowa. The price tag is sure to grow, as many locations downstream are facing record flood heights this week. Levee overtopping is possible in at least 28 locations along the Mississippi River and its tributaries in the coming days, according to the Army Corp of Engineers. This year's flooding is one of the ten most damaging non-hurricane flood events in the U.S. since 1980, according to the list of billion dollar weather disasters maintained by the National Climatic Data Center. The damage from this year's flood will not come close to the record $26.7 billion in damage from the catastrophic 1993 flood, though.
Figure 1. Number of billion-dollar weather disasters in the U.S. since 1980. While it is possible that climate change has contributed to the increase in billion-dollar disasters since 1980, increases in population and wealth are primarily responsible. Image credit: NOAA/NCDC.
Billion dollar flooding disasters, 1980-2007
Below is a list of all billion-dollar flooding disasters not due to a hurricane or tropical storm in the U.S. between 1980 and 2008. Two damage figures are given for events prior to 2007. The first figure represents actual dollar costs at the time of the event and is not adjusted for inflation. The value in parenthesis is the costs normalized to 2007 dollars using a GNP inflation index.
Midwest flooding of 2008. At least $2 billion in damage.
Northeast Flooding June 2006. Severe flooding over portions of the northeast due to several weeks of heavy rainfall, affecting the states of NY, PA, DE, MD, NJ, and VA. Over $1.0 billion in damage/costs; at least 20 deaths reported.
Texas Flooding October-November 1998. Severe flooding in southeast Texas from 2 heavy rain events, with 10-20 inch rainfall totals; approximately $1.0 (1.1) billion damage/costs; 31 deaths.
Northern Plains Flooding April-May 1997. Severe flooding in Dakotas and Minnesota due to heavy spring snow melt; approximately $3.7 (4.1) billion damage/costs; 11 deaths.
MS and OH Valleys Flooding and Tornadoes March 1997. Tornadoes and severe flooding hit the states of AR, MO, MS, TN, IL, IN, KY, OH, and WV, with over 10 inches in 24 hours in Louisville; estimated $1.0 (1.1) billion damage/costs; 67 deaths.
West Coast Flooding December 1996-January 1997. Torrential rains (10-40 inches in 2 weeks) and snow melt produce severe flooding over portions of California, Washington, Oregon, Idaho, Nevada, and Montana; approximately $3.0 (3.4) billion damage/costs; 36 deaths.
Pacific Northwest Severe Flooding February 1996. Very heavy, persistent rains (10-30 inches) and melting snow over Oregon, Washington, Idaho, and western Montana; approximately $1.0 (1.2) billion damage/costs; 9 deaths. Special Report
Blizzard of '96 Followed by Flooding January 1996. Very heavy snowstorm (1-4 feet) over Appalachians, Mid-Atlantic, and Northeast; followed by severe flooding in parts of same area due to rain and snow melt; approximately $3.0 (3.5) billion damage/costs; 187 deaths.
Texas/Oklahoma/Louisiana/Mississippi Severe Weather and Flooding May 1995. Torrential rains, hail, and tornadoes across Texas - Oklahoma and southeast Louisiana - southern Mississippi, with Dallas and New Orleans areas (10-25 inches in 5 days) hardest hit; $5.0-$6.0 (6.5-7.1) billion damage/costs; 32 deaths.
California Flooding January-March 1995. Frequent winter storms cause 20-70 inches rainfall and periodic flooding across much of California; over $3.0 (3.6) billion damage/costs; 27 deaths.
Texas Flooding October 1994. Torrential rain (10-25 inches in 5 days) and thunderstorms cause flooding across much of southeast Texas; approximately $1.0 (1.2) billion damage/costs; 19 deaths.
Midwest Flooding Summer 1993. Severe, widespread flooding in central U.S. due to persistent heavy rains and thunderstorms; approximately $21.0 (26.7) billion damage/costs; 48 deaths.
Texas/Oklahoma/Louisiana/Arkansas Flooding May 1990. Torrential rains cause flooding along the Trinity, Red, and Arkansas Rivers in TX, OK, LA, and AR; over $1.0 (1.4) billion damage/costs; 13 deaths.
Western Storms and Flooding 1982 - Early 1983. Storms and flooding related to El Niño, especially in the states of WA, OR, CA, AZ, NV, ID, UT, and MT; approximately $1.1 (2.2) billion in damage/costs; at least 45 deaths.
Gulf States Storms and Flooding 1982 - Early 1983. Storms and flooding related to El Niño, especially in the states of TX, AR, LA, MS, AL, GA, and FL; approximately $1.1 (2.2) billion in damage/costs; at least 50 deaths.
New Orleans still vulnerable to a strong Category 2 hurricane
NOAA announced Monday that the rebuilt New Orleans levee system cannot withstand a strong Category 2 or higher hurricane without overtopping occurring. The Army Corp of Engineers has been given $7.1 billion so far to repair New Orleans' levees in the wake of the catastrophic failures experienced during Hurricane Katrina of 2005. Congress is considering giving another $5.7 billion for the effort. While the levees may get overtopped in a strong Category 2 hurricane, they should be more resistant to catastrophic breaches such as occurred in Katrina, when several flood walls completely failed. The Army Corps says that they have fixed the levees with better support so that water won't be able to scour out the base, and put better clay in them to keep them from dissolving.
Tropics
It's quiet in the tropics. There are no threat areas to discuss, and none of the models are forecasting tropical storm formation in the next seven days.
Jeff Masters
I am trying to get back from a riverfront home that I am trying to keep the pumps running at. This was a well traveled road.
Where did Alexandria go? (
nauvoo)
From the bridge at the IA/MO state line it does not look like much is left.
Water over the sandbags! (
nauvoo)
They could not keep up with the rising waters at this historic train station on the river front.4 more feet of water are forecast.
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There's a wave just off the SE Floridain coast.
I am confused? The NHC gave it a 20% or less of actually forming? How come? The circulation is way north of the convection although it appears the convection is trying to catch up with the circulation =S
Maybe with a wetter environment to the south the circulation can feed from that and develop some decent convection or maybe a new low under the convection lol I dont know there are many options... so there is also the option that dry air ans SAL may eat it =)
The shear over the northern part of the wave is apparently in the 20-40 knt range
The miami herald link has a link to gas stations with generators in the SE FL area.
http://www.hurricanesafety.org/home2.cfm
http://www.floridadisaster.org/DEMpublic.asp
http://www.hurricane.com/
http://www.miamiherald.com/storm/
http://www.sun-sentinel.com/news/weather/hurricane/
tropic
I dont think thats a wave, surface charts dont indicate it as one, I think its just a flare up of thunderstorms
The area is induced by the pre-frontal trough of a surface cold front and the upper level diffluent flow aloft from the WSW created by an upper level trough and the 200mb vorticity maximum west of South Florida.
Who Knows?.....I do not think that the models are developing anything in the GOM right now, but, sheer is very low; best chances would be (as Taz mentioned earlier) if a "low" got into the Gulf in the near term....
what does it mean when an area with convection has a nice divergence but little convergence?
alot of expansion in the upper levels but little is converging at the surface.
JP yup what drak said lol =)
AL 81 2008061712 BEST 0 120N 380W 20 1010 DB
AL 81 2008061718 BEST 0 120N 400W 20 1010 DB
AL 81 2008061800 BEST 0 119N 423W 20 1010 DB
AL 81 2008061806 BEST 0 119N 440W 20 1010 DB
AL 81 2008061812 BEST 0 120N 460W 20 1009 DB
Also, includes this SHIPS file
Link
Time to fully evacuate NOLA, make it a national landfill until it's piled well above sea level, plow 10 feet of soil on top, then harvest resulting methane and pump it into existing US natural gas pipeline network that originates in southern LA.
lol I don't know its a mess with a circulation here and convection there then SAL to the west but moist to the south =)
Oddly, the GFS was showing something like that late last week for mid week this week...
Good Wednesday afternoon all!!! They are Drak?
I don't know.
ACUS11 KWNS 181533 SWOMCD SPC MCD 181533 FLZ000-181700-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1455 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1033 AM CDT WED JUN 18 2008
AREAS AFFECTED...FL PENINSULA
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 181533Z - 181700Z
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT HOUR OR SO ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL/ERN PORTIONS OF THE FL PENINSULA.
THOUGH ENVIRONMENTAL WINDS/SHEAR ARE WEAK...RELATIVELY COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT WERE RESULTING IN STRONG INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPES UP TO 2000 J/KG. THE AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO DESTABILIZE WITH ADDITIONAL HEATING. THE DEEP WLY WINDS ARE LIKELY TO RESULT IN NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG SEA BREEZE MOVING EWD ACROSS THE PENINSULA. ALSO...CONVECTION MAY BE ENHANCED BY CONVERGENCE ALONG STATIONARY FRONT IN THE NRN PENINSULA...PLUS FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH MID LEVEL CIRCULATION IN SRN FL AND SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE NW. THERE IS SOME QUESTION ABOUT STORM ORGANIZATION SINCE SHEAR IS WEAK AND ALSO NUMEROUS STORMS WILL RESULT IN PLENTY OF OUTFLOWS. HOWEVER...IF IT APPEARS STRONG UPDRAFTS CAN BE MAINTAINED...A WATCH WOULD BE NEEDED.
..IMY.. 06/18/2008
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...TBW...JAX...
25218058 26468145 27908207 29408262 29868120 29078095 28048047 26757997 25638018
$$
Link
Drak, does the Central Atlantic low show any real potential for tropical development?
The NHC gives it >20%.
The waters are more than warm enough to support it so if the shear is low anything is possible especially with the change in the pattern allowing cold fronts to reach the GOM now.
We actually got rain at my house yesterday finally. Although not a lot it was enough to green everything up that had started to look pale.
There is some pretty good model agreement with a cutoff low forming off the east coast from this front. Something to keep an eye on.
You need to check the box at the bottom of the picture download form to make the picture your portrait.
I'm with you on just a full day of moderate soaking rain without the constant cloud to ground lightning FL is famous for!
I was just looking at that one. It looks like it's poised to merge with a smaller system just north of it that already has some rotation.
Just a quick post for now.
The wave in the Atl does not look as good today as it did late yesterday. I suspect that in addition to the very dry environment it is in, it's current forward speed of approx 20 mph is outrunning the moisture it was pulling from the ITCZ to the South that was helping it organise.
If this continues it could dissipate within 12 to 24 hrs or open up completely.
COLLIDE WITH THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE. THE AREA WHERE POTENTIALLY
STRONGER STORMS WILL OCCUR IS SE OF ST. AUGUSTINE TO PALATKA AND
OCALA."
From NWS...Ocala area finally getting the rain it needs. If my "pond" forms in the pasture, then I know were ok for a while.
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