Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Iowa flood price tag at $2 billion and growing
Posted by: Dr. Jeff Masters, 05:30 PM GMT on iunie 17, 2008 +2
Preliminary damage estimates from the June 2008 Midwest flood puts agricultural damage in Iowa alone at $1.0 billion. At least another $1.0 billion in property damage has likely occurred--$762 million of that in Cedar Rapids, Iowa. The price tag is sure to grow, as many locations downstream are facing record flood heights this week. Levee overtopping is possible in at least 28 locations along the Mississippi River and its tributaries in the coming days, according to the Army Corp of Engineers. This year's flooding is one of the ten most damaging non-hurricane flood events in the U.S. since 1980, according to the list of billion dollar weather disasters maintained by the National Climatic Data Center. The damage from this year's flood will not come close to the record $26.7 billion in damage from the catastrophic 1993 flood, though.


Figure 1. Number of billion-dollar weather disasters in the U.S. since 1980. While it is possible that climate change has contributed to the increase in billion-dollar disasters since 1980, increases in population and wealth are primarily responsible. Image credit: NOAA/NCDC.

Billion dollar flooding disasters, 1980-2007
Below is a list of all billion-dollar flooding disasters not due to a hurricane or tropical storm in the U.S. between 1980 and 2008. Two damage figures are given for events prior to 2007. The first figure represents actual dollar costs at the time of the event and is not adjusted for inflation. The value in parenthesis is the costs normalized to 2007 dollars using a GNP inflation index.

Midwest flooding of 2008. At least $2 billion in damage.

Northeast Flooding June 2006. Severe flooding over portions of the northeast due to several weeks of heavy rainfall, affecting the states of NY, PA, DE, MD, NJ, and VA. Over $1.0 billion in damage/costs; at least 20 deaths reported.

Texas Flooding October-November 1998. Severe flooding in southeast Texas from 2 heavy rain events, with 10-20 inch rainfall totals; approximately $1.0 (1.1) billion damage/costs; 31 deaths.

Northern Plains Flooding April-May 1997. Severe flooding in Dakotas and Minnesota due to heavy spring snow melt; approximately $3.7 (4.1) billion damage/costs; 11 deaths.

MS and OH Valleys Flooding and Tornadoes March 1997. Tornadoes and severe flooding hit the states of AR, MO, MS, TN, IL, IN, KY, OH, and WV, with over 10 inches in 24 hours in Louisville; estimated $1.0 (1.1) billion damage/costs; 67 deaths.

West Coast Flooding December 1996-January 1997. Torrential rains (10-40 inches in 2 weeks) and snow melt produce severe flooding over portions of California, Washington, Oregon, Idaho, Nevada, and Montana; approximately $3.0 (3.4) billion damage/costs; 36 deaths.

Pacific Northwest Severe Flooding February 1996. Very heavy, persistent rains (10-30 inches) and melting snow over Oregon, Washington, Idaho, and western Montana; approximately $1.0 (1.2) billion damage/costs; 9 deaths. Special Report

Blizzard of '96 Followed by Flooding January 1996. Very heavy snowstorm (1-4 feet) over Appalachians, Mid-Atlantic, and Northeast; followed by severe flooding in parts of same area due to rain and snow melt; approximately $3.0 (3.5) billion damage/costs; 187 deaths.

Texas/Oklahoma/Louisiana/Mississippi Severe Weather and Flooding May 1995. Torrential rains, hail, and tornadoes across Texas - Oklahoma and southeast Louisiana - southern Mississippi, with Dallas and New Orleans areas (10-25 inches in 5 days) hardest hit; $5.0-$6.0 (6.5-7.1) billion damage/costs; 32 deaths.

California Flooding January-March 1995. Frequent winter storms cause 20-70 inches rainfall and periodic flooding across much of California; over $3.0 (3.6) billion damage/costs; 27 deaths.

Texas Flooding October 1994. Torrential rain (10-25 inches in 5 days) and thunderstorms cause flooding across much of southeast Texas; approximately $1.0 (1.2) billion damage/costs; 19 deaths.

Midwest Flooding Summer 1993. Severe, widespread flooding in central U.S. due to persistent heavy rains and thunderstorms; approximately $21.0 (26.7) billion damage/costs; 48 deaths.

Texas/Oklahoma/Louisiana/Arkansas Flooding May 1990. Torrential rains cause flooding along the Trinity, Red, and Arkansas Rivers in TX, OK, LA, and AR; over $1.0 (1.4) billion damage/costs; 13 deaths.

Western Storms and Flooding 1982 - Early 1983. Storms and flooding related to El Niño, especially in the states of WA, OR, CA, AZ, NV, ID, UT, and MT; approximately $1.1 (2.2) billion in damage/costs; at least 45 deaths.

Gulf States Storms and Flooding 1982 - Early 1983. Storms and flooding related to El Niño, especially in the states of TX, AR, LA, MS, AL, GA, and FL; approximately $1.1 (2.2) billion in damage/costs; at least 50 deaths.

New Orleans still vulnerable to a strong Category 2 hurricane
NOAA announced Monday that the rebuilt New Orleans levee system cannot withstand a strong Category 2 or higher hurricane without overtopping occurring. The Army Corp of Engineers has been given $7.1 billion so far to repair New Orleans' levees in the wake of the catastrophic failures experienced during Hurricane Katrina of 2005. Congress is considering giving another $5.7 billion for the effort. While the levees may get overtopped in a strong Category 2 hurricane, they should be more resistant to catastrophic breaches such as occurred in Katrina, when several flood walls completely failed. The Army Corps says that they have fixed the levees with better support so that water won't be able to scour out the base, and put better clay in them to keep them from dissolving.

Tropics
It's quiet in the tropics. There are no threat areas to discuss, and none of the models are forecasting tropical storm formation in the next seven days.


Jeff Masters
Do Not Try This! (nauvoo)
I am trying to get back from a riverfront home that I am trying to keep the pumps running at. This was a well traveled road.
Do Not Try This!
Where did Alexandria go? (nauvoo)
From the bridge at the IA/MO state line it does not look like much is left.
Where did Alexandria go?
Water over the sandbags! (nauvoo)
They could not keep up with the rising waters at this historic train station on the river front.4 more feet of water are forecast.
Water over the sandbags!
Categories: Flood
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Reader Comments
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51. NoNamePub 07:22 PM GMT on iunie 17, 2008    
Conch - It is gentle until we get an invest...then it is crazy again.
Member Since: iulie 13, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 517
52. HadesGodWyvern 07:24 PM GMT on iunie 17, 2008    
June...storms don't form in the CATL in June.

---
can't always rule out one cyclone to form in the Central Atlantic..
Member Since: mai 24, 2006 Posts: 43 Comments: 36684
53. NEwxguy 07:24 PM GMT on iunie 17, 2008    
49. ConchHondros 7:20 PM GMT on June 17, 2008
Well, back again for the summer festivities...looks as if we have a kinder gentler crowd these days. StormW, been keeping up with your blog, great stuff as always. Oh well eating oysters, drinking Killians, and singing "dust in the wind"...

Speaking for all of us at work right now,
CAN YOU SAY ENVY!!!!!
Member Since: septembrie 6, 2007 Posts: 815 Comments: 13069
54. SpaceThrilla1207 07:25 PM GMT on iunie 17, 2008    
I think we'll see a quiet season this year. I called it first.
56. SpaceThrilla1207 07:26 PM GMT on iunie 17, 2008    
I'm here because school's out...don't work.
57. 69Viking 07:28 PM GMT on iunie 17, 2008    
46. CaneAddict

LOL! I'll second you!
Member Since: august 25, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 2247
58. NEwxguy 07:29 PM GMT on iunie 17, 2008    
56. I think we already figured that out.
Member Since: septembrie 6, 2007 Posts: 815 Comments: 13069
59. 69Viking 07:32 PM GMT on iunie 17, 2008    
and it's June...storms don't form in the CATL in June.

Wow, absolutely no skill in that prediction needed I guess! So if something has never happened before that doesn't mean it won't happen?
Member Since: august 25, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 2247
60. Floodman 07:33 PM GMT on iunie 17, 2008    
36. RasBongo

Welcome bongo!
Member Since: august 2, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 9919
62. Floodman 07:33 PM GMT on iunie 17, 2008    
54. SpaceThrilla1207

Thrilla, you're basing that on what?
Member Since: august 2, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 9919
63. 69Viking 07:35 PM GMT on iunie 17, 2008    
58. NEwxguy

LMAO!
Member Since: august 25, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 2247
65. Drakoen 07:36 PM GMT on iunie 17, 2008    
61. jphurricane2006 7:33 PM GMT on June 17, 2008
lol viking, well I guess Ana in 2003 never happened lol


And Ana 1979
Member Since: octombrie 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29010
68. Floodman 07:38 PM GMT on iunie 17, 2008    
Damn, jp...I was hoping he was basing it on years and years of observation and a well honed instinctual reaction to the current climatological conditions...but I could have been wrong...LOL
Member Since: august 2, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 9919
69. 69Viking 07:39 PM GMT on iunie 17, 2008    
You give away your age when say something will never happen because it has never happend before that's for sure! If life has taught me anything is that statement is about as far from fact as it gets!
Member Since: august 25, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 2247
71. SpaceThrilla1207 07:41 PM GMT on iunie 17, 2008    
Climotology is where it's at, and it's not on the side of 92L.
73. NEwxguy 07:43 PM GMT on iunie 17, 2008    
68. Floodman 7:38 PM GMT on June 17, 2008
Damn, jp...I was hoping he was basing it on years and years of observation and a well honed instinctual reaction to the current climatological conditions...but I could have been wrong...LOL

What you really mean is he pulled it out of his a--
Member Since: septembrie 6, 2007 Posts: 815 Comments: 13069
75. Floodman 07:43 PM GMT on iunie 17, 2008    
Thrilla, I wasn't talking about 92L (has it been declared an invest?), I was talking about the long term forecast you masde in comment 54...
Member Since: august 2, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 9919
77. MonkeeInDaTrunk 07:48 PM GMT on iunie 17, 2008    
64. jphurricane2006 12:35 PM PDT on June 17, 2008

floodman, he is basing on the fact that he wants to throw something out there that will liven up this blog


if you want to do that, just yell PINHOLE EYE!!!!


;)
78. MonkeeInDaTrunk 07:49 PM GMT on iunie 17, 2008    
hey jp, any bacon pie today?
81. MonkeeInDaTrunk 07:51 PM GMT on iunie 17, 2008    
Don't say Felix, jp!!! The next thing you know, someone will be posting a photo of Felix the Cat, and all heck will break loose!!!!
84. MonkeeInDaTrunk 07:54 PM GMT on iunie 17, 2008    
I prefer Oscar Madison
85. Floodman 07:54 PM GMT on iunie 17, 2008    
76. JFLORIDA

Not at all good news for those of us who enjoy a little corn on the cob, huh?
Member Since: august 2, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 9919
86. Skyepony (Mod) 07:55 PM GMT on iunie 17, 2008    
Helicopter saves sandbaggers from Midwest flooding


The rising Mississippi River interrupted travel on two bridges between Iowa and Illinois and forced the helicopter rescue of more than a dozen people sandbagging a levee before it broke near the western Illinois village of Gulfport. The break also forced the closure of the Great River Bridge that connects Gulfport to Burlington via U.S. Highway 34 and threatened to deluge farmland.

Illinois conservation officers and a Medivac helicopter from Iowa were able to rescue those stranded at the levee, as well as motorists stuck on nearby U.S. 34 and at a house in nearby Carman, Illinois Gov. Rod Blagojevich's office said.

Henderson County Deputy Sheriff Donald Seitz said the highway could be under 10 feet of water within 15 to 20 hours and that the crest wasn't predicted to hit the area until Tuesday evening....
Member Since: august 10, 2005 Posts: 144 Comments: 29240
87. Floodman 07:56 PM GMT on iunie 17, 2008    
82. JFLORIDA

Aren't you just a little ray of sunshine today...LOL
Member Since: august 2, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 9919
88. Floodman 07:56 PM GMT on iunie 17, 2008    
Howdy Monkee!
Member Since: august 2, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 9919
89. MonkeeInDaTrunk 07:58 PM GMT on iunie 17, 2008    
hey Jerry...did you hear the one about the PINHOLE EYE?

;)
92. Floodman 07:59 PM GMT on iunie 17, 2008    
Just can't leave well enough alone, can you? LOL
Member Since: august 2, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 9919
93. Drakoen 07:59 PM GMT on iunie 17, 2008    
Here's another thing that is useful from the GloSea climate model; looking at the geopotential height. Using the 500mb geopotential heights we are looking for where a pressure of 500mb is found relatively to the surface. Low geopotential heights are indicative of stormy weather: low pressure. When a 500mb trough (longwave or shortwave) moves into a region a pressure of 500mb comes closer to the surface. High geopotential heights are indicative of less storminess: Higher pressure, ridges. Geopotential hieght anomalies give us an idea of what type of weather is occurring. Below is the 500hpa heights from the GloSea model for the combined months of July-August-September. You can see how the probability is moderate to high for less storminess across the central and northern sections of the CONUS and average conditions of the eastern Seaboard. Also very evident is the low probability of above average 500mb geopotential heights across the TRPL Atlantic through the MDR. A pattern like this favors WNW tracks in the MDR. Also low pressures in these regions would indicate intense storms.

Photobucket
Member Since: octombrie 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29010
95. Patrap 08:02 PM GMT on iunie 17, 2008    
Current Conditions Link

Uptown, New Orleans, Louisiana (PWS)
Updated: 3 sec ago
Scattered Clouds
99.3 °F / 37.4 °C
Scattered Clouds
Humidity: 19%
Dew Point: 51 °F / 11 °C
Wind: 0.0 mph / 0 km/h from the West
Wind Gust: 2.7 mph / 4 km/h
Pressure: 29.94 in / 1013.8 hPa (Falling)
Heat Index: 97 °F / 36 °C
Member Since: iulie 3, 2005 Posts: 370 Comments: 111244
97. MonkeeInDaTrunk 08:04 PM GMT on iunie 17, 2008    
Don't worry...eat bacon pie jp.....

:)
98. Skyepony (Mod) 08:05 PM GMT on iunie 17, 2008    
Most recent on the Mississsipi River closings.
Member Since: august 10, 2005 Posts: 144 Comments: 29240
100. MonkeeInDaTrunk 08:05 PM GMT on iunie 17, 2008    
that's HOT Pat!!! Too hot for me....
101. Floodman 08:05 PM GMT on iunie 17, 2008    
91. JFLORIDA

Yep, who knew?
Member Since: august 2, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 9919

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About JeffMasters
Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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