Carli? Carli? CARLI?!?!?!? WHERE ARE YOU?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!
The devastating Lv.3 Winter Storm Allison slammed the East Coast just prior to Halloween, and the milder Lv.1 Winter Storm Bill struck Oklahoma, Kansas, Colorado, and Nebraska in early November, but what about the next several names? It is a 105-name list, after all. The answer is... since #WinterStormBill, there has not been a single storm both organized enough and strong enough to meet Winter Storm naming criteria. Several have been strong enough, but too local or too broken up. One was well enough organized (Winter Disturbance THREE in late November), but none have been both. And furthermore, there has just not been very much snow. Most precip lately has happened AHEAD of cold fronts (before the temperature drop) or in the Warm sector of Extratropical Cyclones where it's upwards of 45 degrees. So the answer, there is no Carli. Not yet. But, I do have a theory about this issue...
A delayed flight takes no less time to arrive
If you plan to take off on a plane at 4 and arrive at 8, but your plane doesn't leave until 5:30, you will not arrive until well after 8. Theory: This principle will apply to this winter. In other words, my theory is that the longer it takes for winter to get going, the longer it will take for it to wear off. Perhaps snow continuing until mid-March or later. Of course it's just a theory, and forecasts can't be made anywhere near that far in advance, but climatological conditions still do favor a strong winter this year and I haven't lost faith in La Nina's power to "bring it" yet.
Dublin Calamity Days?
You may think I'm nuts, and maybe I am, but I'm still thinking 4-6 total this season. My "delayed plane" theory is one factor, and a persistent and long-lasting La Nina is another. If I had to split them up (and this is only a slightly educated guess, so don't hold me to this), I'd say 2-3 Snow Days, 1-2 Ice Days, and 1-2 Blizzard Days.
