LRandyB's Tropical Weather Discussion

Tropical Weather Discussion - August 27, 2012

Posted by: Randy Bynon, 05:18 PM GMT on august 27, 2012

Good afternoon folks!

Tropical Storm Isaac is churning across the Gulf this afternoon headed for an eventual landfall somewhere on the LA coast. Despite what appeared to be conditions favorable for intensification, Isaac has stubbornly remained a tropical storm. We won't complain. I think the single biggest reason Isaac hasn't been able to reach hurricane status has been its shear size. A storm that covers as much ocean as Isaac takes time to consolidate all that energy to the center of the storm. And Isaac is trying to do that. The central pressure has steadily dropped but it's doing so at a slow pace. The winds haven't kept pace with the pressure, remaining steadily around 40-50mph. I'll be surprised to see Isaac not at least make a minimal hurricane it will struggle to make much more than that.

The track forecast has proven to be a challenge, as anyone following this storm can attest. It hasn't surprised me to see this storm track further west than was at first expected. The real question now is how far west. The models are usually pretty accurate within the 48-72 hour point. The single most significant factor at the moment for the track forecast is the development of the high pressure ridge over the SE US. The 11am storm discussion from the hurricane center mentions the fact that this high appears to be building more than forecast. The circulation around the high could push the track further west than the current forecast is indicating.

At the moment, I think the current model solution looks reasonable but I think we can expect the track forecast to be nudged a bit further west over the course of the next two days before landfall.

Elsewhere, we should keep our eyes on the eastern Atlantic. A new wave off the African coast has caught NHCs eye and they give it a low chance of becoming a tropical system in the next 48 hours. The GFS develops this wave fairly significantly in the central and western Atlantic by the end of the week. We'll keep an eye on that system.

Randy

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Tropical Weather Discussion - Sunday, August 26, 2012

Posted by: Randy Bynon, 05:07 PM GMT on august 26, 2012

All eyes are on Isaac this afternoon as it makes its way through the Florida Keys as a tropical storm. Current Key West radar shows the storm circulation very well though it still appears a bit ragged in terms of deep convection and eyewall development. But Isaac is now entering the Gulf which is quite warm. A ridge is building in over the SE US. Water vapor and visible loops show the ridge is beginning to effectively stall out the trough over the southern plains th...

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Tropical Weather Discussion - August 21, 2012

Posted by: Randy Bynon, 05:01 PM GMT on august 21, 2012

The tropics are getting busier as we approach the statistical peak of the Atlantic hurricane season around Sept. 10th. NHC recently started advisories on TD #9 and they expect to upgrade that system to what would be Tropical Storm Isaac later today. Another system follows TD#9 in the Atlantic and it appears likely this system will become TD#10 and perhaps Joyce. A third area of disturbed weather is off the Gulf coast of Mexico but appears unlikely to develop before ...

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Tropical Weather Discussion - August 7, 2012

Posted by: Randy Bynon, 03:28 PM GMT on august 02, 2012

Things are heating up a bit! We have recently upgraded Hurricane Ernesto about to make landfall near Belize and a new invest in the eastern Atlantic. Let's take a look.....In the Gulf of Mexico ......The weather is generally good across most of the Gulf as upper level ridging extends from the outflow of Hurricane Ernesto. Showers and thunderstorms along the FL peninsula were popping up with daytime heating aided by an upper trough over the eastern US. Hurricane Erne...

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Updated: 03:19 AM GMT on august 08, 2012

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Tropical Weather Discussion for Friday, June 22, 2012

Posted by: Randy Bynon, 01:26 AM GMT on iunie 23, 2012

Things have been pretty quiet so far in the Atlantic after the early start. Hurricane Chris developed out over the open North Atlantic and stayed there without impacting land areas. Now we have Invest 96 in the Gulf to look at. Let's take a look.....In the Gulf of Mexico ......Invest 96L is the news in the Gulf this weekend. 96L is actually a fairly large, broad area of low level circulation that is impacting most of the Gulf and the western Caribbean. Showers and ...

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