Nobel, Stories, Sea Ice North (The End)
Nobel, Stories, Sea Ice North – The End
First I will finish the northern sea ice, then below, I have a question that I need help with, and I can’t ignore the Nobel Prize.
The last two blogs have been about the sea ice in the northern and southern oceans. I started down the path because of the discussion in earlier blog comments that suggested the observations of sea ice stability and growth in the southern hemisphere challenged the basic ideas of global warming. This will be the last blog on the North, and I think I’ll wait awhile for the South. The carry away points – the summer trend of melting in the northern summer is strongly correlated with increased infrared radiation, which is associated with more moisture in the air, and warmer temperatures. Other points were how the balance of sea ice and sea water were related to more than just air temperature. The links to the old blogs are at the end.
This blog is a little more about the idea of whether or not there is a tipping point. One significant event would be if the sea is warmed enough in the summer that ice formation in the winter was reduced. Then spring and summer would see less ice, more water would be exposed, and because water absorbs more solar radiation than ice, the sea warms. Going into the winter the sea water is warmer, ice formation is delayed, and there is less ice in the winter. Because the ocean is good at holding heat, it would take a long time to recover from this. As reported by Walter Meier, Julienne Stroeve, Florence Fetterer, and Ken Knowles, of the National Snow and Ice Data Center, in the September 9, 2005, EOS, Transactions of the American Geophysical Union, there is, recently, a trend in the winter sea ice. They also report that the wintertime ice reductions occur in the entire Arctic basin, on both the Atlantic and Pacific sides. The occurrence of the reductions throughout the basin is a piece of evidence that the reductions are not due to some sort of atmospheric circulation anomaly, such as the Arctic Oscillation. (Yes, 2007 was not another winter record low, but it would be hard to say it started a recovery. See here.)
Figure 1: Wintertime Growth of Arctic Sea Ice
There is substantial evidence that the decrease of the Arctic sea ice is due to a systematic warming of the northern high latitudes. Because the northern pole is covered with water, not land, it is especially sensitive to global warming. Both the ocean and the atmosphere are able to carry heat to the pole. This balance of sea ice and sea water is complex, and it is susceptible of change. Once the balance is shifted away from ice towards water, sea water absorbs heat that sea ice would reflect and the warming is further accelerated. The fact that the north pole is, first and foremost, a maritime environment explains the large difference in the predictions for the north and the south. It also means that to think of the north and south as analogues to be compared for consistency is not a justified assumption.
Changing Subjects:
I have this idea that I have been promoting and getting some traction. Climate Stories. It is a collection of personal stories, perhaps, oral histories. This is a nuance of the traditional folk history, because rather than looking to the past at something that is disappearing, we are acting on a prediction of big changes. And – at the same time our parents, grandparents, and we have lived through a heap of CO2 increase and temperature increase. We have a lot to talk about. I need some test stories for the person developing the collection software. The farther away and the more remote, the better. Hoping to find a few through the blog here. Don’t be shy.
Nobel Prize: Everyone has talked about the Nobel Prize – and you know I don’t usually talk about what everyone is talking about. A couple of things. Almost exactly two years ago, I spent some time with Al Gore. What struck me was his true passion about climate change, the environment in general, and his sense of humor. Every one walked out of the room thinking this was a different man than the one we saw campaigning. He and his organization consume information from all aspects of climate science and climate change. They do a good job of turning it in the material that they produce. People with such passion are a marvel to me. As for the IPCC, in my earliest blogs I talked about the breadth and the rigor of the IPCC. Yes, the Nobel Prizes often make a statement. They are always made with merit. This is more than a significant honor.
The Sea Ice Blog Collection
Sea Ice in the North
Sea Ice North and South
Links to some relevant old blogs
The End of Ice
Fast Ice 1
Warm Snow
Reader Comments
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There are so many things wrong with the world that awarding the IPCC or Al Gore a peace prize for this is absolutely rediculous. This horrible climate dissaster has not yet occured and there's no proof and plently of evidence to the contrary that extreme weather events of recent that can make life difficult for us have a human root cause.
Heres a thought that drives me nuts, I can image there are children who are now dreaming of a career in global warming. So here you have a whole field being created that is based on, and biased towards a non-objective view point already settled apon. There is something very wrong with the state of science today. But I am comforted by the fact that truth will always prevail, not my truth not the the AGW promoters truth the the absolute truth all in due time.....
I also want to add that I did vote for Al, and even lived in Tallahassee Florida at the time the election scandal was going on (hard to get to work with CNN satellite trucks parked all over the place lol) I would not vote for him if he were on the ballot today but just trying to demostrate my independence from political influence in my view point.
Ricky I give you many props for not going along with the crowd wich constantly uses assumptions and oversimplifiations of the science of climate change, however I do dissagree with you from a philisophical and pollitical standpoint on the issue of AGW. Good Blog once again.
I agree that the globe is warming; however, I do not agree that it is man made.
As far as the Nobel Prize goes, LOL, It was given to Carter, for what? Making deals with a terrorist....
Gore does not practice what he preaches, he is a product of the Left and his science holds as much truth as his agenda...NONE!
BTW, loved your BBQ link!
With all due respect.
I agree that the globe is warming; however, I do not agree that it is man made.
As far as the Nobel Prize goes, LOL, It was given to Carter, for what? Making deals with a terrorist....
Gore does not practice what he preaches, he is a product of the Left and his science holds as much truth as his agenda...NONE!
BTW, loved your BBQ link!
In order to understand you have to add up the cross section of every internal combustion engine exhaust system, every industrial smoke stack including gas turbines exhaust, every aircraft exhaust system, every marine internal combustion engine and gas turbine exhaust system world wide. Then calculate the amount of greenhouse gasses that are are exiting them.
This is only half of the problem. Once you do that calculation then calculate how many BTUs all those exhausts put out world wide which also adds to the total heat budget of GODS GOOD EARTH and then throw in the nuclear power BTUs on top of that.
It seems our own ignorance and arrogance will shorten our term limit.
Bravo, Al Gore, for popularizing concern. I'd rather sell environmentalism to our children than Coca-cola, X-box games, and Big Macs. Bravo, Carter for putting your money where your mouth is and living your values. Palestinians are not terrorists by birth, nor are Iraqis or Iranians or North Koreans. Killing children in the name of land, oil, or water is reprehensible. Diplomacy may not be for the impatient or trigger happy, but it saves lives and builds good will.
Conservation is the key to eliminating resources as a cause of war. And in the bargain, we might get a cleaner, cooler planet.
27N 86W
Link
The "Real" cause of Global Warming? (there is some satire here! And, are not necessarily my views, but is the original aired discussion between Bill Maher and Ingrid Newkirk, president of PETA. Of course, less the added sound effects and pictures.)
OCTOBER 2007 OUTLOOK FOR THE 2007 TO 2008 ICE SEASON.
THE SUMMER ARCTIC ICE COVERAGE IN 2007 WAS A RECORD MINIMUM FOR AS
FAR BACK AS THERE ARE RECORDS. THERE ARE SEVERAL SOURCES ON THE
INTERNET WITH DETAILS ON THIS EVENT. OUR RECORDS OF THE ICE IN THE
CHUKCHI AND BEAUFORT SEAS GO BACK TO THE MID 70S. THE FIRST OF
OCTOBER THE ICE NORTH OF POINT BARROW WAS NEAR 79.5N. WEST OF 155W
THE ICE EDGE TOOK A STEEP DROP TO THE SOUTH. AT 150W THE ICE EDGE
WAS NEAR 75N. AT 145W THE ICE EDGE WAS NEAR 73N AND AT 140W THE EDGE
WAS NEAR 72N. WHILE THIS ICE POSITION WAS A MINIMUM THERE HAVE BEEN
OTHER YEARS WHERE THE ICE NORTH OF ALASKA REACHED SIMILAR LATITUDES.
THESE YEARS INCLUDE 2006...2005...2002 AND 1997. THE EXTREME MINIMUM
ICE HAPPENED IN WATERS NORTH OF RUSSIA. BECAUSE NONE OF THE AFORE
MENTIONED YEARS HAD SUMMER ICE THAT EQUALED ANYTHING NEAR THE MINIMAL
ICE NORTH OF RUSSIA A SIMPLE YEAR GROUP ANALYSIS WAS NOT POSSIBLE. I
DECIDED TO DELAY THIS OUTLOOK TO ALLOW OTHERS IN WEATHER AND
CLIMATOLOGY TIME TO PRODUCE THEIR REPORTS FOR SEPTEMBER AND TO GIVE
ME TIME TO DISCUSS THE ARCTIC WEATHER PATTERN WITH MY CO-WORKERS.
AS THE ICE EDGE NORTH OF RUSSIA MOVED NORTH DURING THE SUMMER GREATER
AREAS OF WATER WERE OPENED TO HEATING FROM THE SUN AND THERE
DEVELOPED A SIGNIFICANT WARM ANOMALY IN THE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
IN THE ARCTIC WEST OF ALASKA. MORE AREAS OF WATER WERE FREE OF ICE
WHEN THE SUN COULD PROVIDE THE MOST EFFICIENT HEATING BECAUSE OF ITS
FAR NORTHERN POSITION. THE QUESTION NOW IS HOW FAST WILL THOSE WATERS
COOL ENOUGH TO FORM SEA ICE. THE HEAT FROM THE SUN IS QUICKLY
DIMINISHING IN THE ARCTIC AS THE THE EARTH NEARS THE NORTHERN
HEMISPHERE WINTER SOLSTICE AND WATER TEMPERATURES IN THE BEAUFORT AND
CHUKCHI SEAS ARE COOLING QUICKLY.
I USED THE NOAA CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER/S REANALYSIS WEB SITE TO
LOOK AT WEATHER AND SST PATTERNS FOR 2007...2006...2005...2002 AND
1997. FOR ALASKA THE WINTER OF 2006-2007 WAS A HEAVY ICE YEAR AND I
HAVE OFTEN BEEN ASKED IS THIS WINTER GOING TO BE AS BAD FOR SEA ICE.
MY ANSWER IS NO. THE LARGE SCALE WEATHER PATTERNS THIS FALL ARE NOT
SIMILAR TO 2006. THEY ARE SIMILAR TO 2005 EXCEPT THE 2007 PATTERN
SEEMS TO BE A LITTLE STRONGER...POSSIBLY DUE TO THAT EXTRA HEATING
FROM THE SUN IN THE WESTERN ARCTIC OCEAN. SO THAT IS MY THINKING FOR
THIS UNUSUAL YEAR. HERE IS MY SEA ICE OUTLOOK.
2007-2008 WINTER ICE OUTLOOK...
EVENT 2007-2008 OUTLOOK
SIGNIFICANT ICE IN WEEK OF OCTOBER 29
KOTZEBUE SOUND
MINIMAL ICE IN WEEK OF OCTOBER 22
NORTON SOUND
SIGNIFICANT ICE IN WEEK OF NOVEMBER 11
NORTON SOUND
ICE IN KUSKOKWIM BAY WEEK OF NOVEMBER 5
ICE TO SAINT PAUL ISLAND LAST WEEK OF JANUARY 2008
SOUTHERN ICE EXTENT IN 56.5N NEAR 170W IN EARLY FEBRUARY
BERING SEA
FIRST ICE IN COOK INLET FIRST WEEK OF NOVEMBER
SIGNIFICANT ICE IN WEEK OF NOVEMBER 12
UPPER COOK INLET
SIGNIFICANT ICE NEAR NIKISKI WEEK OF JANUARY 7 2008
SOUTHERN EXTENT OF ICE ACROSS FROM ANCHOR POINT
IN COOK INLET MAIN CHANNEL LAST WEEK OF FEBRUARY 2008
ICE IN KACHEMAK BAY FIRST WEEK OF FEBRUARY
BUT NOT AS MUCH ICE AS 2006
KCOLE OCTOBER 2007
LAKE LANIER, Georgia (CNN) -- Georgia Gov. Sonny Perdue on Saturday declared the northern region of Georgia in a state of emergency as its water resources dwindled to dangerously low level.
Link
LAKE LANIER, Georgia (CNN) -- Georgia Gov. Sonny Perdue on Saturday declared the northern region of Georgia in a state of emergency as its water resources dwindled to dangerously low level.
Link
My idea prevents this also.
For instance...
1. it is the atmosphere's temperature that increases before CO2 increases
2. atmospheric temperatures and CO2 increase during natural cycles (see 400,000 year graph Link )
3. Al Gore and the IPCC focused on only 90-years worth of data and ignored prior global warming cycles
I will be posting more information about Natural cycles on my web site in about 2 months or less....this will include much more information about the natural cycle mechanism that actually causes global warming cycles.
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I trade financial markets for a living and I am seeing this as clearly as night and day - commodities such as oil are on a one way path, while the economies that import them are on the opposite path. Something has got to give.
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Reducing our reliance on fossil fuel and pollutants would probably solve some other problems as well!
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I found this article interesting, Our green planet is in danger and we need to do something to save it. We are responsible for this and all the catastrophic situation of global warming it due to the fact that we do not want to work more but just to sleep :-) and we take all this beautiful planet resources to satisfy our needs without thinking about the results of our act.
Jean
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There is a debate about who is (or are) to blame for this dangerous phenomenon: what are the causes of global warming? Are them the industry CO2 emissions? Are them other gases, maybe made by animals or producted in another natural way, anyway? Is it the whole mankind itself, with its own way of using and abusing the planet Earth?
We think it does not really matter, because the problem exists (yes, global warming is REAL and it is happening) and is useless to look for someone to blame for it: instead, we need to act: everybody should do what is in his/her possibilities to DO something: we as humanity can still slow down the rising of temperature on the planet.
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