Caribbean Weather Outlook

By: nigel20 , 03:47 PM GMT on martie 26, 2012

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Caribbean Weather Outlook

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1791. nigel20
The National Meteorological Service of Belize

Date:

FRIDAY 31ST MAY 2013

Time:

12:10PM

------------------------------------------------- -------------------------------

General Situation:

MODERATE EAST-SOUTHEAST AIRFLOW PREVAILING...

24hr Forecast:

SUNNY WITH CLOUDY SPELLS DURING THE DAYTIME AND PARTLY CLOUDY TONIGHT. SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ISOLATED THIS AFTERNOON, WITH A FEW MORE OVER THE SOUTH TONIGHT AND TOMORROW MORNING.

Winds:

EAST - SOUTHEAST 10-20 KNOTS

Sea State:

CHOPPY - MODERATE

Outlook:

(SAT AFTNOON - MDDAY SUN) CLOUDY SPELLS WITH A FEW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY INLAND AND IN THE NORTH SATURDAY AFTERNOON, THEN MAINLY OVER THE SOUTH SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING.

Member Since: noiembrie 6, 2010 Posts: 11 Comments: 8320
1790. nigel20
Barbados Weather Service

Lesser Antilles Forecast

This Afternoon's Forecast Valid From 1600Z Friday 2013-05-31 To 2200Z Friday 2013-05-31

Synopsis: A ridge of high pressure is the dominant feature.

Wx : Fair to partly cloudy,hazy and breezy with a few brief scattered showers.

Winds: ESE - E at 20 - 45 km/h.

Seas: Moderate to rough in open water swells 2.5 - 3.0 metres. Small craft operators and sea bathers should exercise caution.

Tonight's Forecast Valid From 2200Z Friday 2013-05-31 To 1000Z Saturday 2013-06-01

Synopsis: A ridge of high pressure will continue to be the dominant feature.

Wx : Fair to partly cloudy,hazy and breezy with a few brief scattered showers.

Winds: ESE - E at 20 - 45 km/h.

Seas: Moderate to rough in open water swells 2.5 - 3.0 metres. A small craft warning will be in effect for above normal sea swells.
Member Since: noiembrie 6, 2010 Posts: 11 Comments: 8320
1789. nigel20
Good afternoon all!

Tropical Weather Discussion

CARIBBEAN SEA...
ABUNDANT DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS THROUGHOUT THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN
EVIDENT IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. THIS IS DUE TO
DIFFLUENCE ALOFT AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH CENTER NEAR 18N81W.
A LARGE BURST OF HEAVY SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS IS
FROM 15N-21N BETWEEN 78W-84W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO IN THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM 9N-13N BETWEEN
75W-80W ASSOCIATED WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH THAT EXTENDS THROUGH
NORTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA AND ALONG 11N/12N. THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN CARIBBEAN ARE MOSTLY DRY AT THIS TIME WITH ONLY A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS EMBEDDED WITHIN TRADEWIND FLOW OF 15-20 KT.
STATIONS IN THE LESSER ANTILLES ARE ALSO REPORTING DUST. A
SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH NORTH OF THE MONA PASSAGE IS STILL
PROVIDING AN UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT OVER EASTERN HISPANIOLA AND
PUERTO RICO. SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO REPORTED ALMOST 2 INCHES OF
RAIN OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS AS OF 1200 UTC THIS MORNING. RADAR
IMAGERY INDICATES ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE CURRENTLY
ACROSS THE ISLAND AND TO THE SOUTH
. MORE ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY
BUILD UP OVER THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS DAYTIME HEATING REACHES A
MAXIMUM. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH
SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN.

HISPANIOLA...
A SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH IS MAINLY NORTH OF THE ISLAND ALONG
70W...WHICH CONTINUES TO PROVIDE AN UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT MAINLY
OVER THE FAR EASTERN PORTION OF HISPANIOLA. A COUPLE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ALREADY POPPED UP NEAR THE CENTER OF THE
ISLAND AND OVER THE EASTERN PORTION. ACTIVITY IS LIKELY TO
INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS DAYTIME HEATING REACHES A
MAXIMUM. THE UPPER TROUGH SHOULD MOVE EAST OF THE ISLAND
SHORTLY. HOWEVER...A LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE
WEST ATLC NORTH OF THE AREA.

NHC
Member Since: noiembrie 6, 2010 Posts: 11 Comments: 8320
Good morning. Scattered showers will be the rule this weekend in the PR area.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
417 AM AST FRI MAY 31 2013

.SYNOPSIS...MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA WILL
CONTINUE TO ERODE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AS TROUGH ALOFT
AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN.
A BROAD SURFACE HIGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE TO
PROMOTE A MODERATE TO FRESH EASTERLY WIND FLOW AT LEAST THROUGH
NEXT MONDAY. AN EASTERLY DISTURBANCE/EASTERLY WAVE IS EXPECTED TO
REACH THE LOCAL AREA NEXT WORK WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA WILL
CONTINUE TO ERODE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AS TROUGH ALOFT
AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN.
AS THIS PATTERN EVOLVES...ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE
TO COMBINE WITH LOCAL EFFECTS AND DIURNAL HEATING TO PRODUCE
CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE LOCAL ISLANDS. UNDER THE PREVAILING EASTERLY WIND FLOW...
EXPECT THE CONTINUED TREND OF PASSING SHOWERS ACROSS LOCAL
WATERS...U.S.V.I. AND EASTERN PUERTO RICO DURING THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS...FOLLOWED BY AFTERNOON CONVECTION WHICH WILL BE MAINLY
FOCUSED ACROSS THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL...W AND NW PUERTO RICO...AS
WELL AS PORTIONS OF THE SAN JUAN METRO AREA. THIS PATTERN WILL
PREVAIL AT LEAST THROUGH MONDAY. SHOWER COVERAGE AND THUNDERSTORM
INTENSITY WILL INCREASE EARLY NEXT WORK WEEK AS AFOREMENTIONED
TROUGH ALOFT AMPLIFIES AND AN EASTERLY DISTURBANCE/TROPICAL WAVE
MOVES OVER THE AREA. EASTERLY TRADES ARE EXPECTED TO VEER TO THE
SOUTHEAST ON MONDAY AS A SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE BAHAMAS INTENSIFIES.

&&

.AVIATION...SCT SHRA WILL CAUSE BRIEF MVFR PERIODS ACROSS THE LOCAL
TERMINALS...IN PARTICULAR TISX/TIST AND TJSJ BEFORE 31/13Z. WINDS
WILL CONTINUE MAINLY FROM THE EAST AT 10 KTS OR LESS UNTIL
31/12Z...AFTER THAT EXPECT WINDS BETWEEN 10-15 KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO
25 KTS. SCT/NMRS SHRA AND ISOLD TSRA EXPECTED AFTER 31/16Z ACROSS
PR...WITH THE HEAVIEST TSRA ACROSS THE WEST AND INTERIOR OF PUERTO
RICO. MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS ARE LIKELY AS CLOUDINESS INCREASES
THROUGH THE DAY.

&&

.MARINE...SMALL BOAT OPERATORS SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION ACROSS THE
LOCAL WATERS...AS A MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WIND FLOW PREVAILS.
SEAS OF UP TO 6 FEET EXPECTED.

&&

.CLIMATE...MAY 2013 CURRENTLY RANKS AS THE FIFTH WETTEST MAY ON
RECORD AT JSJ WITH 13.65" SO FAR. ALSO...A RECORD RAINFALL OF
1.42 INCHES WAS SET AT SAN JUAN/P.R. YESTERDAY. THIS BROKE THE
OLD RECORD OF 1.35 SET IN 1992.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 86 76 88 76 / 40 30 30 20
STT 88 78 88 79 / 40 30 30 30
Member Since: aprilie 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14565
1787. nigel20
Cuba Weather

2013-05-30 12:00 WEATHER ACTUAL. HAVANA CITY. Mostly cloudy and warm.

2013-05-30 03:00 WEATHER FORECAST. NATIONWIDE. This morning there will be a lot of clouds across most of Cuba accompanied by some rain and thunderstorms. It won't be cloudy everywhere; we can expect sunny spells over western regions. By afternoon, the rain will become intense and frequent over central regions and will extend well into the dusk. The temperature will remain in the range of 31-34 C (88-93 F), falling to 24-27 C (75-81 F) overnight. The rough sea will persist throughout the North coast, especially in the North-east, where the waves could cause danger for small boat's navigation. Some waves are expected in the South-east too, while in the rest of the south coast the sea will be calm.
Member Since: noiembrie 6, 2010 Posts: 11 Comments: 8320
1786. nigel20
Dominica Meteorological Service

Weather Outlook for Dominica and the Lesser Antilles

Issued: 12:00 PM on Thursday, May 30, 2013

A ridge of high pressure is the dominant feature across the region. Low level moisture moving with the trade wind will produce occasional cloudiness with a few widely scattered showers across parts of the island chain during the next 24 hours. Slight haze and breezy conditions will be maintained.

Moderate sea conditions are expected through the next 24 hours with swells peaking near 8.0 feet. Small craft operators and sea bathers should exercise caution.
Member Since: noiembrie 6, 2010 Posts: 11 Comments: 8320
1785. nigel20
Good afternoonall!

Tropical Weather Discussion

CARIBBEAN SEA... ABUNDANT DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS THROUGHOUT THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN EVIDENT IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. THIS IS DUE TO BOTH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW AROUND THE BASE OF AN UPPER TROUGH OVER CENTRAL CUBA...AND AROUND AN UPPER RIDGE OVER CENTRAL AMERICA. THE COMBINATION IS SUPPORTING A LARGE CLUSTER OF STRONG SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 11N-15N BETWEEN 76W-80W...AND SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 12N-20N BETWEEN 80W-85W. A WEAK 1010 MB SURFACE LOW IS ALSO ANALYZED OFF THE COAST OF NICARAGUA NEAR 12N83W NEAR THE END OF THE MONSOON TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM THE EPAC THROUGH COSTA RICA TO THE LOW. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE MOVING THROUGH PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN EMBEDDED WITHIN TRADEWIND FLOW OF 20 KT. THE UPPER TROUGH OVER CENTRAL CUBA IS ALSO SUPPORTING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER EASTERN CUBA...JAMAICA...AND HISPANIOLA. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED WITH DEEP MOISTURE REMAINING OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN.

HISPANIOLA... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH NEAR 78W CONTINUES TO PROVIDE MOIST AND DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT OVER HISPANIOLA. CURRENTLY...SCATTERED LOW-LEVEL SHOWERS ARE PRESENT. AS THE DAY CONTINUES...DEEP CONVECTION IS MORE LIKELY TO FORM DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING. THIS PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AS THE UPPER TROUGH DRIFTS EAST AND WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE A FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT FOR CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY...ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

NHC
Member Since: noiembrie 6, 2010 Posts: 11 Comments: 8320
Good morning. Variable weather will prevail in PR for the next few days with a mix of sun and scattered showers.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
527 AM AST THU MAY 30 2013

.SYNOPSIS...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE LOCAL
AREA NEXT FEW DAYS. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC DURING THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A LINE OF SHOWERS AFFECTED THE NORTHERN HALF OF
PUERTO RICO EARLY IN THE EVENING...BUT DISSIPATED QUICKLY.
ALSO...ISOLATED PASSING SHOWERS WERE NOTED MAINLY ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. SOME LIGHT TO
MODERATE SHOWERS AFFECTED THE EASTERN HALF OF PUERTO RICO LATER IN
THE MORNING HOURS. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY QUIET
TODAY AND FRIDAY...AS A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES
OVER THE REGION. MAINLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE WESTERN INTERIOR AND WEST SECTIONS
OF PUERTO RICO.

LOOKING AHEAD...COMPUTER MODELS INDICATED RELATIVE DRY CONDITIONS
CONTINUING FOR NEXT WEEK...EXCEPT FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...WHEN
AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE IS EXPECTED. CLIMATOLOGY IS IN FAVOR OF
DRIER CONDITIONS AS WE START THE NEW MONTH. ALSO...WE MAY SEE SOME
SAHARAN DUST APPROACHING THE LOCAL AREA BY MID NEXT WEEK. IN
FACT...LATEST NAAPS AEROSOL MODEL FORECAST AN EXTENSIVE AREA OF SAHARAN
DUST WILL COVER THE ATLANTIC...AND SOME APPROACHING THE NORTHEAST
CARIBBEAN BY EARLY JUNE. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...FAIRLY GOOD WEATHER ALONG ALL COASTS EXCEPT FOR A FEW
PASSING SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST SECTIONS OF PUERTO
RICO. THEREFORE...VCSH ARE POSSIBLE FOR TJMZ AND TJBQ. ALSO...VCSH AND
-SHRA ARE POSSIBLE TKPK DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS WITH NO SIG WX AND MAINLY EAST WINDS AT 10-20 KT WITH
HIGHER GUSTS UP TO 25 KT.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS OF 6 FEET OR LESS AND WINDS OF 20 KNOTS OR LESS ARE
EXPECTED OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE
CAUTION ACROSS ALL COASTAL WATERS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 87 77 87 77 / 40 50 50 40
STT 88 79 89 79 / 40 30 30 50
Member Since: aprilie 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14565
1783. nigel20
Meteorological Department Curaçao


Weather Forecast for Bonaire and Curacao valid until Thursday midday 12:00 l.t., May 30, 2013.

Issued: Wednesday May 29, 2013, 11:00 l.t. (15:00 UTC).

Weather:
Today: Partly cloudy
Tonight through Thursday: Generally partly cloudy with a chance of a local shower.


Forecast high will be 33ºC and the low will be 26ºC.

Sunrise will occur at 06:09 and sunset at 18:56.

Winds:
Today through Thursday midday: Easterly and moderate to fresh; force 4 to 5 (20 to 39 km/hr, 11 to 21 knots).

During the day, occasionally strong in gusts; force 6 (31 to 50 km/hr, 22 to 27 knots).


Synopsis: Cloudiness will increase at time and a couple of showers will likely occur. Otherwise, a moderate to fresh trade winds results in a moderate seas.

Sea conditions: Moderate with seas

Special features: None.

Outlook until Thursday midday: Partly cloudy and a few local showers.

Forecaster: Luciano
Member Since: noiembrie 6, 2010 Posts: 11 Comments: 8320
1782. nigel20
Trinidad and Tobago Meteorological Services

ISSUED AT: 02:30PM
Date:Wednesday 29th of May 2013

Meteorologist: Arnold Ramgoolam

FOR THE PERIOD LATE AFTERNOON,EVENING AND TONIGHT:
TRINIDAD,TOBAGO AND THE REM.OF THE LESSER ANTILLES
Sunny, hazy and breezy despite light to moderate
showers in a few confined areas and the slight
chance of the thundershower favouring
South-Western areas of Trinidad. Tonight, mostly
clear.

Gusty winds,street and flash flooding may occur
in heavy showers and thundershowers.


SEAS: Normal to Moderate
WAVES: 2.0 to 2.5m IN OPEN WATERS
1.0m IN SHLTD AREAS

Temperature Units:Celsius

TODAY'S MAX TEMP.
Piarco: 32 Crown Point: 31
Tides ISSUED AT: 05:53PM
Date:Tuesday 28th of May 2013

Port of Spain HIGH 07:01am 08:08pm LOW 12:57am 01:33pm
Scarborough HIGH 06:38am 07:50pm LOW 12:38am 01:16pm
Member Since: noiembrie 6, 2010 Posts: 11 Comments: 8320
1781. nigel20
Good afternoon all!

Tropical Weather Discussion

THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH
18N60W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO 13N64W IN THE
SOUTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...TO INTO NORTH CENTRAL
VENEZUELA. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION
IS BETWEEN 59W AND 72W.

THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES...FOR THE PERIOD
ENDING AT 29/1200 UTC...FOR TRINIDAD IS 0.35...
ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN.


THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 9N72W IN WESTERN VENEZUELA...
ACROSS COLOMBIA...TO 9N79W IN PANAMA...BEYOND 10N86W IN
NORTHWESTERN COSTA RICA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
NUMEROUS STRONG IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE SOUTH OF 12N TO THE WEST OF 79W.
NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION WAS COVERING
COLOMBIA AND COASTAL WATERS FROM 7N TO 11N BETWEEN 73W
AND 77W AT 29/0915 UTC. THAT PRECIPITATION HAS WEAKENED.
BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS
AND OTHER POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE ELSEWHER FROM 7N TO 13N
BETWEEN 73W AND 80W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION IS IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 5N TO
9N TO THE EAST OF 86W.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...
AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3...FOR MORE DETAILS
ABOUT THE 20 TO 25 KNOT NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS AND
8 TO 10 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS FROM 12N TO 18N BETWEEN 71W AND 78W.

HISPANIOLA...

THE GFS FORECASTS FOR 250 MB, 500 MB, AND 700 MB SHOW THAT
A RIDGE OR AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IN SOME CASES...
WILL EXIST ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

EXPECT WEAK SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AND SCATTERED SHOWERS TO
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THE PEAK DAYTIME HEATING AND
ATMOSPHERIC INSTABILITY...FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

CURRENTLY...MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY-TO-
NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG IS FROM 17N
TO 18N BETWEEN 70W AND 71W...ABOUT 45 NM TO THE SOUTH
OF THE COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC.

NHC
Member Since: noiembrie 6, 2010 Posts: 11 Comments: 8320
Good morning. Afternoon showers will be the norm for PR in the next couple of days before another increase in deep moisture is expected by the weekend.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
430 AM AST WED MAY 29 2013

.SYNOPSIS...MID-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILDS OVER THE
FORECAST AREA TODAY AND THURSDAY. DEEP MOISTURE WILL RETURN TO
THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN FRIDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE PREVAILED ACROSS THE COASTAL
WATERS OVERNIGHT. SOME OF THESE SHOWERS MOVED INLAND OVER EASTERN
PUERTO RICO. ACCUMULATIONS WERE NEAR A QUARTER OF AN INCH. PASSING
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE REST OF THE MORNING...AFFECTING
MAINLY THE EASTERN HALF OF PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS. FOR THIS AFTERNOON...AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL COMBINE ONCE
AGAIN WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND LOCAL EFFECTS TO PRODUCE SCATTERED
SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY ALONG THE CORDILLERA
CENTRAL OF PUERTO RICO. LATEST COMPUTER MODELS SUGGESTS A DRIER
AIR MASS WILL ENCOMPASS THE LOCAL AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THIS
AREA OF DRIER AIR WILL PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY.

BEGINNING ON FRIDAY...AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE WEEKEND...ANOTHER
SURGE IN DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE IS THEN EXPECTED ACROSS THE
REGION. LATEST 29/00Z SJU-GFS MODEL INDICATED PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES WILL STEADILY INCREASE FROM FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK...AS MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WEAKEN AND AN MID TO UPPER
LEVEL THROUGH DEVELOPS ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS SCENARIO
WILL INDUCE A SOUTHEASTERLY COMPONENT AT THE SURFACE...WHICH WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO THE MOISTURE ADVECTION ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES THIS
MORNING. AFTER 29/16Z...MVFR CONDITIONS WITH LOCAL MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL AND WESTERN
PR IN SHRA/TSRA...AFFECTING MAINLY TJMZ THROUGH 30/21Z. ELSEWHERE...
VFR CONDS EXPECTED. EAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE IN 15-20 KT RANGE WITH
HIGHER GUSTS UP TO 25 KT NEAR SHRA/TSRA.



&&

.MARINE...SEAS OF 6 FEET OR LESS AND WINDS OF 21 KNOTS OR LESS ARE
EXPECTED OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE
CAUTION ACROSS MOST WATERS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 87 77 88 78 / 40 40 40 10
STT 88 78 89 78 / 50 40 40 30
Member Since: aprilie 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14565
1779. nigel20
Cayman Islands Weather Service

Valid fOR THE AFTERNOON Of May 28th 2013

through the AFTERNOON of MAY 29th 2013.
SYNOPSIS:

Light to moderate east to southeasterly winds and seas will continue across the Cayman area for the next 24 hours in association with a high pressure system over the western Atlantic Ocean.

THE FORECAST:

Today: Partly cloudy skies becoming cloudy at times with a 30% chance of showers and some thunder. Temperatures will rise to the upper 80’s. Winds will be east to southeast 10 to 15 knots. Seas will be moderate with wave heights of 3 to 5 feet.

Tonight: Partly cloudy skies becoming cloudy at times with a 30% chance of showers and possible thunder. Temperatures will fall to the upper 70’s. Winds will be east to southeast 5 to 10 knots. Seas will be moderate with wave heights of 3 to 5 feet.

Tomorrow: Partly cloudy skies becoming cloudy at times with a 30% chance of showers and possible thunder. Temperatures will rise to the upper 80’s. Winds will be east to southeast 10 to 15 knots. Seas will be moderate with wave heights of 3 to 5 feet.

TIDES:

Today: High 12:05 p.m. Low 6:23 p.m.

Tomorrow: High 1:07 a.m. Low 7:49 a.m. High 1:22 p.m. Low 7:40 p.m.

SUNSET: 6:59 p.m. Today. SUNRISE: 5:47 a.m. Tomorrow.

OUTLOOK: is for similar weather conditions through Thursday afternoon.

Forecaster: Powery.
Member Since: noiembrie 6, 2010 Posts: 11 Comments: 8320
1778. nigel20
Barbados Weather Service

Lesser Antilles Forecast

This Afternoon's Forecast Valid From 1600Z Tuesday 2013-05-28 To 2200Z Tuesday 2013-05-28

Synopsis: Weak unstable conditions are affecting the region.

Wx : Partly cloudy to cloudy, hazy and breezy with some scattered showers and possible isolated thunderstorms.

Winds: ENE - ESE at 15 - 40 km/h.

Seas: Moderate in open water swells 2.0 - 2.5 metres. Small craft operators and sea bathers should exercise caution.

Tonight's Forecast Valid From 2200Z Tuesday 2013-05-28 To 1000Z Wednesday 2013-05-29

Synopsis: Weak unstable conditions are expected to continue affecting the region.

Wx : Partly cloudy to cloudy, hazy and breezy with some scattered showers and possible isolated thunderstorms.

Winds: ENE - ESE at 15 - 40 km/h.

Seas: Moderate in open water swells 2.0 - 2.5 metres. Small craft operators and sea bathers should exercise caution.
Member Since: noiembrie 6, 2010 Posts: 11 Comments: 8320
1777. nigel20
Good afternoon all!

Tropical Weather Discussion

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM
WESTERN NICARAGUA...TO 17N83W IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
TO WESTERN CUBA AND INTO THE FLORIDA STRAITS...
BEYOND 32N74W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
FROM CUBA TO 28N BETWEEN 75W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
AND ACROSS THE BAHAMAS...AND 82W IN THE FLORIDA STRAITS.
SCATTERED STRONG IS IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE NORTH OF 19N TO THE WEST OF 80W.
OTHER RAINSHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
ELSEWHERE TO THE NORTH OF 17N TO THE WEST OF 79W.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH
24N54W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO 18N62W NEAR THE
NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...INTO THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 14N65W...TO 11N66W JUST
TO THE NORTH OF THE VENEZUELA COAST. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG IS IN VENEZUELA FROM
7N TO 10N BETWEEN 60W AND 65W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG IS FROM 10N TO 18N BETWEEN 57W IN THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN AND 70W.

24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTALS IN INCHES...FOR THE PERIOD
ENDING AT 28/1200 UTC...ARE 2.35 IN TRINIDAD...
1.39 IN SAN JUAN IN PUERTO RICO...0.66 IN GUADELOUPE...
0.44 IN SAINT THOMAS IN THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...
ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN.

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 9N73W IN COLOMBIA TO 9N81W
IN PANAMA...BEYOND 11N86W IN NORTHWESTERN COSTA RICA.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG IN THE EASTERN
PACIFIC OCEAN...OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA AND TO THE SOUTH
OF PANAMA...FROM 4N TO 8N TO THE EAST OF 86W. WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG IS ELSEWHERE FROM
6N TO 10N TO THE EAST OF 90W ALONG THE COAST OF PANAMA
AND COSTA RICA. NUMEROUS STRONG IS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN
CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 11N TO 14N TO THE
WEST OF 81W.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...
AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3...FOR MORE DETAILS
ABOUT THE 20 TO 25 KNOT NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS AND
9 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS FROM 11N TO 14N BETWEEN 74W AND 78W.

HISPANIOLA...

THE 700 MB GFS FORECAST SHOWS THAT A RIDGE WILL EXIST ACROSS
THE AREA FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE 500 MB GFS FORECAST SHOWS
THAT THE AREA WILL BE INFLUENCED EITHER BY AN ANTICYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER OR A RIDGE. THE 250 MB GFS FORECAST SHOWS
THAT THE AREA WILL BE IN A TROUGH OR ON THE WESTERN SIDE
OF A TROUGH.

EXPECT WEAK SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AND SCATTERED SHOWERS TO
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THE PEAK DAYTIME HEATING AND
ATMOSPHERIC INSTABILITY...FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG ABOUT 100 NM
TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM 16N TO 18N BETWEEN 68W AND 69W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG IS IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM
20N TO 22N BETWEEN 66W AND 70W.

NHC
Member Since: noiembrie 6, 2010 Posts: 11 Comments: 8320
Good morning. More rain is expected today in PR as the trough lingers nearby.May 2013 is now the fourth of most rainfall ever.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
455 AM AST TUE MAY 28 2013

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A WEAK TROUGHINESS NORTHEAST OF PUERTO RICO
WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS A WEAK MID-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVER THE FORECAST AREA. DEEP MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO LINGER
ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN TODAY. AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL
DECREASE SLIGHTLY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AFTER AN ACTIVE MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...WEATHER
CONDITIONS HAVE IMPROVED SINCE MIDNIGHT. SATELLITE IMAGERY EARLY
THIS MORNING IS SHOWING SEVERAL LAYERS CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH CONVECTIVE
DEBRIS FROM YESTERDAY NIGHT CONVECTION. ALTHOUGH THE FORECAST AREA
IS UNDER A VERY MOIST AIR MASS...GPS MET DATA AT BAYAMON AND CHRISTIANSTED
SHOW THAT THE PRECIPITABLE WATER HAS DECREASED SLOWLY IN THE LAST
FEW HOURS. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WERE FROM 2.23 INCHES AT 00Z
TO AROUND 2 INCHES AT 08Z. AS A RESULT...RADAR IMAGERY EARLY THIS
MORNING ONLY SHOWS WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE OFF SHORE
ATLANTIC AND CARIBBEAN WATERS...WITH NO RAIN ECHOS OVER LAND.

FOR TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FROM
THE WEST WILL PROVIDE SOME UPPER LEVEL VENTILATION/DIFFLUENCE FOR
FURTHER ENHANCEMENT OF AFTERNOON CONVECTION. THEREFORE THE POTENTIAL
FOR LOCALLY HEAVY SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL
REMAIN HIGH...ESPECIALLY OVER THE CENTRAL INTERIOR AND WEST SECTIONS
OF PUERTO RICO IN THE AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH...MODERATE TO LOCALLY
STRONG CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE DUE TO THE HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT AND
THE VENTILATION ALOFT...IT IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD...AND
SHOULD BE MORE LOCALIZED IN ISOLATED AREAS ACROSS THE ISLANDS FOR
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST A WET PATTERN FOR
THE WEEKEND. PARTICULARLY...28/00Z GFS SHOWED LARGE CONVECTIVE
INSTABILITY...MOISTURE AVAILABILITY AND UPPER DIVERGENCE...IN
RESPONSE TO A LONG FETCH SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AND A MID TO UPPER LOW
NORTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE
EVOLUTION OF THIS WETTER PATTERN FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES
THROUGH ABOUT 28/15Z...WITH PASSING SHOWERS POSSIBLE AT TJSJ...
TIST...TISX...TKPK AND TNCM. AFTER 28/16Z...MVFR CONDITIONS WITH
LOCAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE CORDILLERA
CENTRAL...AFFECTING MAINLY TJMZ AND TJBQ. EAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE
AT 15 TO 20 KTS.

&&

.MARINE...OUR CURRENT FORECAST DOES NOT SHOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS OVER THE LOCAL WATERS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
WINDS WILL BE IN THE 15-20 KT RANGE AND SEAS OF 4 TO 6 FEET ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...MAY 2013 CURRENTLY RANKS AS THE 4TH WETTEST MAY ON RECORD
AT THE SAN JUAN AREA WITH 12.04" SO FAR. MAY 1936 CONTINUES TO BE
THE WETTEST MAY ON RECORD WITH 16.87".

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 85 79 87 79 / 30 40 40 40
STT 84 80 85 80 / 40 50 50 40
Member Since: aprilie 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14565
1775. nigel20
Met Service of Jamaica

May 27, 2013 at 5:00 a.m.

LOCAL WEATHER FORECAST

SIGNIFICANT FEATURE… Trough across the central Caribbean, east of Jamaica.

Comment Comment…The Trough is likely to weaken throughout the day as a High Pressure Ridge intensifies over the island tonight.

24-HOUR FORECAST This Morning… Isolated showers over northeastern parishes. This Afternoon… Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms over central and western parishes. Tonight… Becoming fair.

Maximum temperatures expected today: Kingston... 33 degrees Celsius Montego Bay... 32 degrees Celsius

3-DAY FORECAST (starting tomorrow) Tue… Generally fair morning. Isolated aftenoon showers and thunderstorms over inland areas and western parishes. Wed/Thu… Isolated morning showers across eastern parishes. Scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms across central and western parishes.

Regionally… Deep Trough over the eastern Caribbean produces heavy showers and thunderstorms.

rar
Member Since: noiembrie 6, 2010 Posts: 11 Comments: 8320
1774. nigel20
Dominica Meteorological Service

Weather Outlook for Dominica and the Lesser Antilles

Issued: 6:00 PM on Monday, May 27, 2013

Moisture and instability associated with a trough system will continue to generate cloudiness and scattered showers across parts of the island chain during the next 24 to 48 hours. Additionally, breezy conditions will be maintained.

Persons in areas prone to flash flooding, landslides and falling rocks should exercise caution.

Moderate sea conditions are expected through the next 72 hours with swells peaking near 8.0 feet. Small craft operators and sea bathers should exercise caution.
Member Since: noiembrie 6, 2010 Posts: 11 Comments: 8320
1773. nigel20
Good evening/night all!

Tropical Weather Discussion

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

10-20 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA W OF 80W. PATCHES OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE OVER CUBA...JAMAICA...HISPANIOLA...PUERTO RICO...THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...AND THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER MOST OF VENEZUELA...AND N COLOMBIA. ONLY A PORTION OF THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN IS VOID OF CONVECTION. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 75W. THE BASE OF AN UPPER LEVER TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL AND E CARIBBEAN. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS NOTED OVER E CUBA...JAMAICA...AND HISPANIOLA ENHANCING CONVECTION. SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND SCATTERED TO BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS ARE ALSO OVER MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR CONVECTION AND SHOWERS TO PERSIST OVER MOST OF THE AREA.

HISPANIOLA...

SATELLITE IMAGERY AND LIGHTNING DETECTION SHOWS SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION OVER MOST OF HAITI AND WESTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC W OF 70W MOVING W. MOIST TRADEWINDS TOGETHER WITH UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS MAKING PRECIPITATION LIKELY FOR ANOTHER 24 HOURS. LOCALIZED FLOODING IS POSSIBLE NEAR RIVERS.

NHC
Member Since: noiembrie 6, 2010 Posts: 11 Comments: 8320
Good morning. This week will be a mostly rainy one for the Eastern Caribbean so stay tuned for any flooding that may occur.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
518 AM AST MON MAY 27 2013

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN/CENTRAL WILL
CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS MOVES EASTWARD. A WEAK MID LEVEL RIDGE IS
EXPECTED TO BUILD ACROSS THE AREA BETWEEN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
MOST OF THE WEEK...AS DEEP MOISTURE REMAINS HIGH.

&&

.DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS FEATURE IS ENHANCING
THE SHOWER ACTIVITY IN AND AROUND THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. 00Z TJSJ
SOUNDING AS WELL AS GPS MET DATA SHOW PRECIPITABLE WATERS RANGING
FROM 2.0 TO 2.1 INCHES ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. IN ADDITION...MIMIC
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER ANALYSIS SHOWED DEEP MOISTURE OVER THE
LOCAL ISLANDS AND ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT OVER THE
NORTHERN LEEWARDS. A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC IS INDUCING A LOW LEVEL EAST-SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW ACROSS
THE ISLANDS. THIS LOW LEVEL EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL BRING THE
DEEP MOISTURE OVER ACROSS THE ISLANDS AT TIME OF MAX HEATING...
INCREASING THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY...
ESPECIALLY OVER THE CENTRAL INTERIOR AND WEST SECTIONS OF PUERTO
RICO IN THE AFTERNOON.

CONDITIONS REMAIN RELATIVELY UNSTABLE THROUGH AT LEAST MIDWEEK...AS
PRECIPITABLE VALUES REMAIN ABOVE 2 INCHES. THE COMBINATION OF HIGH
MOISTURE CONTENT AND GOOD VENTILATION ABOVE WILL RESULT IN SEVERAL
ROUND OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE ISLANDS...ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON.
LOCAL HIGH-RES 2KM WRF MODEL SHOWED THE STRONGEST CONVECTION DEVELOPING
ACROSS THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL...NORTH AND WEST SECTIONS OF PUERTO
RICO. SOME OF THE RAINFALL WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES AND COULD LEAD
TO MINOR FLOODING ON ROADWAYS AND IN URBAN AREAS AND SMALL STREAMS.
IN ADDITION...THUNDERSTORMS ARE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS
AND TORRENTIAL RAINFALL. FORECAST CHARTS DO NOT INDICATE MUCH
IMPROVEMENT IN THE WEATHER CONDITIONS THE REST OF THE WEEK...AS
CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE REMAIN HIGH.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL ACROSS
MOST OF THE TAF SITES. HOWEVER...PASSING SHRA/VCSH ARE POSSIBLE
ACROSS TJSJ...TIST...TISX...TKPK AND TNCM. AFTER 28/16Z BRIEF MVFR
AND POSSIBLE IFR CONDITIONS WITH LOCAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL THROUGH AT LEAST 27/21Z...
AFFECTING MAINLY TJMZ AND TJBQ. EAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT AROUND
10 TO 15 KTS

&&

.MARINE...EAST SOUTHEAST TRADE WINDS WILL INCREASE TO THE 15-20 KT
RANGE ON TUESDAY. THIS WILL MAINTAIN THE SEAS BETWEEN 4 TO 6 FEET
IN ALL EXPOSED AREAS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 88 76 87 76 / 50 40 40 40
STT 85 76 87 79 / 50 50 50 50
Member Since: aprilie 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14565
1771. nigel20
Cuba Weather Service

2013-05-26 03:00 WEATHER FORECAST. NATIONWIDE. A ridge of high pressure from North America will remain in control of weather in cuba today. Skies will start out sunny and will give way to overcast conditions by afternoon only in Eastern regions. The daytime temperature will be around 33 C (91 F) while overnight it will be around 23 C (66 F). The winds from the Atlantic ocean will reach maximum speed of 30 KmPH (6-15 MPH) creating waves in the North-east. In the rest of the country, however, the sea will be mostly calm.
Member Since: noiembrie 6, 2010 Posts: 11 Comments: 8320
1770. nigel20
Trinidad and Tobago Meteorological Services

ISSUED AT: 09:50AM Date:Sunday 26th of May 2013

Meteorologist: Paula Wellington

FOR THE PERIOD THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT: TRINIDAD & TOBAGO: Cloudy with intermittent light to moderate showers in broad areas with one or two thundershowers in confined areas. Conditions should become settled into tonight.

THE REMAINDER OF THE LESSER ANTILLES Sunny periods would be interrupted by periods of increased cloudiness accompanied by showers. there is the chance of the thundershower in a few confined areas.

Gusty winds,street and flash flooding may occur in heavy showers and thundershowers.

SEAS: Normal WAVES: Up to 2.0mIN OPEN WATERS Less than 1.0m IN SHLTD AREAS

Temperature Units:Celsius

FORECAST MAX TEMP. Piarco: 29 Crown Point: 29 Tides ISSUED AT: 05:38PM Date:Saturday 25th of May 2013

Port of Spain HIGH 04:23 am 05:33 pm LOW 10:59 am 11:05 pm Scarborough HIGH 03:55 am 04:59 pm LOW 10:35 am 10:40 pm
Member Since: noiembrie 6, 2010 Posts: 11 Comments: 8320
1769. nigel20
Good morning all!

Tropical Weather Discussion

CARIBBEAN SEA... CLEAR SKIES SPREAD ACROSS A LARGE AREA OF THE CARIBBEAN INCLUDING THE NW AND SE CORNERS. HOWEVER...A COUPLE AREAS OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL PRESENT. THE FIRST AREA IS IN THE SW CARIBBEAN WHERE SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 9N-17N BETWEEN 80W-87W INCLUDING COSTA RICA...NICARAGUA...AND HONDURAS. IT COINCIDES WITH AN AREA OF MAXIMUM MOISTURE IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALSO PLAYING A ROLE AS IT EXTENDS THROUGH COSTA RICA AND PANAMA TO NORTHERN COLOMBIA. SATELLITE IMAGERY ALSO INDICATES WHAT APPEARS TO BE MID-LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW OVER HONDURAS NEAR 13N83W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ALSO OVER SOUTHERN HISPANIOLA FROM 17N-18N BETWEEN 69W-73W. THIS IS LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WHOSE AXIS IS ALONG 70W. MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT COVERS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN EAST OF 70W...BUT ONLY A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE NOTED WITHIN THE TRADEWIND FLOW OF 15-20 KT. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE BASIN. MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN AS WELL AS THE FAR EASTERN PORTION LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY ALONG 70W. AN AREA OF CONVECTION IS JUST EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS AND MAY IMPACT THE ISLANDS IF IT DRIFTS WEST.

HISPANIOLA... ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONLY OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE ISLAND FROM 17N-18N BETWEEN 69W-73W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LIES OVER THE ISLAND ALONG 70W...WHICH MAY BE CONTRIBUTING TO THE LATE ACTIVITY. AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS ALSO JUST NORTH OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. THE UPPER TROUGH SHOULD MOVE EAST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WHICH WILL BRING IN DRIER AIR ALOFT. HOWEVER...MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES WILL BEGIN MOVING WEST AND MAY REACH HISPANIOLA WITHIN 48 HOURS.

NHC
Member Since: noiembrie 6, 2010 Posts: 11 Comments: 8320
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1139 AM AST SUN MAY 26 2013

.UPDATE...INCREASING CLOUDINESS AND SHOWER DEVELOPMENT WAS NOTED
BY LATE MORNING ACROSS PARTS OF THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL INTERIOR
SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO AS LOCAL SEA BREEZES KICKED IN. FEW SHOWERS
WERE ALSO NOTED IN AND AROUND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS.

LATEST UPPER AIR DATA FROM TJSJ SOUNDING SHOWED CONTINUED MOIST
AND UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT AS SUGGESTED BY THE GFS MODEL GUIDANCE
WITH PWAT VALUES STILL NEAR TWO INCHES ACROSS THE REGION. LOCAL
AND DIURNAL EFFECTS ALONG WITH AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL BE MORE
THAN SUFFICIENT TO GIVE WAY TO AFTERNOON CONVECTION ACROSS THE
ISLANDS TODAY. SOME OF THE RAINFALL WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY AT TIMES
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE BRIEF GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY
HEAVY DOWNPOURS. THIS WILL LEAD TO MINOR FLOODING ON ROADWAYS AND
IN URBAN AREAS AND SMALL STREAMS. LOCAL RESIDENTS AND VISITORS AND
URGED TO REMAIN ALERT TO DEVELOPING AFTERNOON CONVECTION ESPECIALLY
ACROSS PUERTO RICO...AS SOME RIVERS AND STREAMS MAY QUICKLY REACT
AS A RESULT OF THE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. SOME CHANGES WERE MADE
TO THE INHERITED SHORT TERM GRIDS BASED ON LATEST GUIDANCE AND
PRESENT WEATHER CONDITIONS.
Member Since: aprilie 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14565
Good morning. Less rain than expected for today but by midweek,another round of deep moisture will arrive.

AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
428 AM AST SUN MAY 26 2013

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...A TROUGH IS PASSING THROUGH THE
LOCAL AREA. THEN RIPPLES WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WESTERLY FLOW
WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE CARIBBEAN DURING THE WEEK.
THIS HIGH WILL STRENGTHEN BETWEEN CUBA AND JAMAICA NEXT WEEK WITH A
MORE NORTHERLY FLOW BEGINNING NEXT WEEKEND OVER THE LOCAL AREA.

AT MID LEVELS...TROUGHING WILL SLOWLY FADE TODAY AND TOMORROW AS
HIGH PRESSURE SPREADS OVER THE CARIBBEAN AND LOW PRESSURE RETREATS
INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN THROUGH MID WEEK NEXT WEEK.

AT LOWER LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE NORTH
CENTRAL ATLANTIC. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
TONIGHT AND THEN MOVES NORTH WHILE STRENGTHENING. LOW PRESSURE
CONTINUES OVER THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN THIS WEEK AND DEEPENS NEAR
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA EARLY NEXT WEEK. EAST TO EAST SOUTHEAST
TRADE WIND FLOW BECOMES MORE SOUTHEASTERLY NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...CONSIDERABLY LESS RAINFALL WAS SEEN OVERNIGHT AND
ONLY A FEW SHOWERS ENTERED PUERTO RICO IN THE EASTERLY FLOW.
NEVERTHELESS SAINT CROIX DID HAVE SOME PASSING SHOWERS THAT LEFT
AROUND ONE TENTH INCH. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WAS LESS OVER THE
SURROUNDING WATERS UPSTREAM FROM THE FORECAST AREA. PRECIPITABLE
WATER IN THE SOUNDERS HAS HELD STEADY NEAR 2 INCHES. WITH THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH NOW MOVING AWAY FROM THE AREA AND MOISTURE
LITTLE CHANGED IT WAS DECIDED TO TAKE DOWN THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH
SINCE VERY LITTLE HAS HAPPENED OVER PUERTO RICO OR THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS DURING THE LAST 48 HOURS. SHOWERS WILL FORM OVER THE LOCAL
ISLANDS TODAY AND SOME AMOUNTS IN LOCALIZED AREAS WILL BE
HEAVY...MAINLY IN THE WEST AND INTERIOR SECTIONS...BUT WIDESPREAD
FLOODING IS NO LONGER EXPECTED. THE WET PATTERN CONTINUES INTO THE
WORK WEEK WITH THE BEST MOISTURE AND CONVECTION NOW INDICATED FOR
WEDNESDAY WHEN THE REMNANTS OF A RELATIVELY STRONG TROPICAL WAVE
PASS MAINLY SOUTH OF THE AREA. THE GFS HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY OVER
FORECASTING MOISTURE SO HAVE DISCOUNTED HIGHER PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS OVER ALL EXCEPT WESTERN PUERTO RICO WHERE THE MODEL CANNOT
RESOLVE THE LOCAL CONVECTION. NEVERTHELESS THE CURRENT PATTERN IS
ABNORMALLY WET AND WILL REMAIN SO FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE.

IN THE LONG RANGE...THE GFS HAS SHOWN A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
DEVELOPING NEAR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND MOVING NORTH ACROSS THE
WESTERN TIP OF CUBA EARLY NEXT WEEK...IN THE FIRST PART OF JUNE. THIS
MAY SERVE TO MAKE LOW LEVEL FLOW SLIGHTLY MORE SOUTHEASTERLY IN
THE LOCAL AREA. NORMALLY THIS WOULD SERVE TO INCREASE MOISTURE
OVER THE AREA...BUT SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR IS DEPICTED TO OUR
SOUTHEAST BY NEXT WEEK...INTERRUPTED ONLY BY A PASSING TROPICAL
WAVE MID WEEK NEXT WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...ALTHOUGH THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH WAS TAKEN DOWN FOR ALL
OF PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...SUFFICIENT
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED IN THE CULEBRINAS RIVER BASIN TO SEND IT
NEAR OR OVER FLOOD STAGE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON. FLOODING THAT
OCCURS WILL BE MINOR. OTHERWISE SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY PROVOKE
URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING TODAY AND TOMORROW AT LEAST.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL ACROSS MOST OF
THE TAF SITES. HOWEVER...PASSING SHRA/VCSH ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
TJSJ...TIST...TISX...TKPK AND TNCM. AFTER 26/16Z BRIEF MVFR AND
POSSIBLE IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH ARND 26/22Z...AFFECTING
MAINLY TJMZ AND TJBQ. MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. EAST
WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT AROUND 10 TO 20 KTS FROM THE SFC UP TO 5
KFT.

&&

.MARINE...EAST SOUTHEAST TRADE WINDS HAVE ABATED SLIGHTLY BUT WILL
INCREASE AGAIN THIS WEEK. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BETWEEN 4 TO
6 FEET IN ALL EXPOSED AREAS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 85 77 86 77 / 60 50 60 70
STT 86 77 86 77 / 60 40 60 50
Member Since: aprilie 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14565
1766. nigel20
Belize National Meteorological Service

Date:
SATURDAY 25TH MAY 2013

Time:
6:00 AM

General Situation:
A RELATIVELY MOIST NORTHEASTERLY AIRFLOW WILL DOMINATE OUR WEATHER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

24hr Forecast:
SUNNY WITH SOME CLOUDY SPELLS TODAY AND CLOUDY AT TIMES TONIGHT. A FEW SHOWERS OR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR MOSTLY OVER INLAND AREAS TODAY AND ALONG COASTAL AREAS TONIGHT..

Winds:
EAST - NORTHEAST 10-20 KNOTS.

Sea State:
CHOPPY - MODERATE.

Outlook:
FOR SUN. AND SUN. NIGHT IS FOR SOME CLOUDY SPELLS WITH A FEW SHOWERS OR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY OVER THE SOUTH AND COASTAL AREAS.
Member Since: noiembrie 6, 2010 Posts: 11 Comments: 8320
1765. nigel20
Barbados Weather Service

Lesser Antilles Forecast

This Afternoon's Forecast Valid From 1600Z Saturday 2013-05-25 To 2200Z Saturday 2013-05-25

Synopsis: Weak unstable conditions are affecting the Leewards and northern Windwards.

Wx : Over the Leewards and northern Windwards: Partly cloudy to cloudy and breezy with scattered showers and possible isolated thunderstorms. Elsewhere: Fair to partly cloudy and breezy with a few scattered showers.

Winds: ESE - E at 10 - 35 km/h.

Seas: Moderate in open water swells 2.0 - 2.5 metres. Small craft operators and sea bathers should exercise caution.

Tonight's Forecast Valid From 2200Z Saturday 2013-05-25 To 1000Z Sunday 2013-05-26

Synopsis: Weak unstable conditions will continue to affect the Leewards.

Wx : Over the Leewards: Partly cloudy to cloudy and breezy some with scattered showers. Elsewhere: Fair to partly cloudy and breezy with a few scattered showers.

Winds: E - ENE at 15 - 40 km/h.

Seas: Moderate in open water swells 2.0 - 2.5 metres. Small craft operators and sea bathers should exercise caution.
Member Since: noiembrie 6, 2010 Posts: 11 Comments: 8320
1764. nigel20
Good afternoon all!

Tropical Weather Discussion

CARIBBEAN SEA...
CLEAR SKIES SPREAD ACROSS A LARGE AREA OF THE CARIBBEAN
INCLUDING THE NW AND SE CORNERS. HOWEVER...A COUPLE AREAS OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL PRESENT. THE FIRST AREA IS IN
THE SW CARIBBEAN WHERE SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM
9N-14N BETWEEN 78W-84W. THIS IS LIKELY INFLUENCED BY THE MONSOON
TROUGH WHICH EXTENDS THROUGH COSTA RICA AND PANAMA TO NORTHERN
COLOMBIA. IT ALSO COINCIDES WITH AN AREA OF MAXIMUM MOISTURE IN
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN FROM 16N-19N EAST
OF 68W. THIS ACTIVITY IS ALSO WITHIN AN AREA OF ENHANCED
MOISTURE EVIDENT IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. THE
REMAINDER OF THE AREA HAS MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH ONLY A FEW LOW-
LEVEL ISOLATED SHOWERS MOVING WITHIN TRADEWIND FLOW OF 15-20 KT.
LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE BASIN. MOISTURE IS EXPECTED
TO REMAIN OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN AS WELL AS THE NE CORNER. A
SURFACE TROUGH/FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE WEST ATLC WILL MOVE
EASTWARD JUST NORTH OF THE BASIN AND MAY INFLUENCE
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN ISLANDS.

HISPANIOLA...
NO SHOWER ACTIVITY IS ACROSS HISPANIOLA AT THIS TIME. WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES MODERATE MOISTURE ALOFT...AND TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY INDICATES A SIMILAR SCENARIO WITH
HIGHER MOISTURE JUST TO THE EAST. MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT
THIS AREA OF HIGHER MOISTURE TO THE EAST WILL DRIFT WEST TOWARDS
THE ISLAND...WHICH COINCIDES WITH SURFACE TROUGHING TO THE
NORTH. THIS COMBINATION MAY LEAD TO A GREATER CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND.

NHC
Member Since: noiembrie 6, 2010 Posts: 11 Comments: 8320
Good morning. A wet day is expected in PR and adjacent islands as a trough moves nearby.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
516 AM AST SAT MAY 25 2013

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PASS
THROUGH THE AREA LATE TODAY AND A LONG WAVE TROUGH AND LOW PRESSURE
WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS TROUGH
WILL LEAVE LOW PRESSURE NEAR FLORIDA EARLY MID WEEK THAT WILL
PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY.

AT MID LEVELS...A WEAK TROUGH PASSAGE WILL OCCUR OVER THE LOCAL
AREA TONIGHT...OTHERWISE A RIDGE WILL EXTEND FROM THE WESTERN
TROPICAL ATLANTIC ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE REST OF
THE WEEK.

AT LOWER LEVELS...LOW PRESSURE IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL MOVE
NORTH AND LEAVE THE MID LATITUDES LOCKED UNDER HIGH PRESSURE FROM
A STRONG NORTH CENTRAL ATLANTIC HIGH AND A WEAKER WESTERN ATLANTIC
HIGH CENTER. THESE HIGHS WILL KEEP EAST TO SOUTHEAST TRADE WIND
FLOW OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SHOWERS PERSISTED OVER THE ATLANTIC AND CARIBBEAN
WATERS OVERNIGHT WITH SOME SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH THE EASTERN HALF
OF PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. OVER ONE HALF INCH
FELL AT THE AIRPORT IN SAN JUAN...WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS VERY
LOCALIZED ELSEWHERE AND JUST OFFSHORE. THE GFS MODEL SOLUTION HAS
PROVEN TO BE ERRATIC LATELY BUT AGAIN SHOWS MOISTURE INCREASING DURING
THE DAY WITH STABILITY DECREASING CONSIDERABLY OVER THE LAST 24
HOURS. LIFTED INDICES FALL BELOW MINUS SIX BETWEEN 25/12Z AND
26/00Z. A WEAK SHORT WAVE ROTATING AROUND A MUCH LARGER AND
DEEPER LONG WAVE CENTERED OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL PASS THROUGH
THE LOCAL AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT AND WILL AID IN THIS
DESTABILIZATION. THIS WILL CREATE AN ENVIRONMENT MORE FAVORABLE TO
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH INCREASED RAINFALL AMOUNTS.
AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE STILL EXPECTED ACROSS THE MAINLAND
TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH 1 TO 2 INCHES OVER THE ISLANDS TO THE EAST
POSSIBLE. THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS ARE AGAIN EXPECTED IN THE NORTHWEST
AND INTERIOR PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. THEREFORE WILL HOLD ONTO THE
FLASH FLOOD WATCH...BUT NOT EXTEND IT BEYOND 6 PM AST UNTIL IT IS
KNOWN HOW WELL THE GFS IS DEPICTING THE CURRENT CONDITIONS. THE
LATEST GFS RUN...25/00Z...PAINTS TODAY AS HAVING THE MOST FAVORABLE MOISTURE
AND VERTICAL MOTION...HOWEVER GOOD PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES...ABOVE 1.8 INCHES...PERSISTS THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK
AND WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP THE LOCAL AREA UNDER MUCH ABOVE NORMAL
RAINFALL DESPITE THE FACT THAT UPPER LEVEL RIDGING MAY BE THE
DOMINANT FORCE AFTER MONDAY SINCE THE UPPER LEVEL LOW CUTS OFF TOO
FAR WEST TO PUSH THE HIGH FARTHER EAST TOWARD THE LEEWARD ISLANDS.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS TJBQ...TJMZ AND TJPS UNTIL
AROUND 25/16Z. SHRA/VCTS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS TIST...TISX...TNCM...TKPK
AND TJSJ DURING THE FCST PERIOD. AFTER 25/16Z MVFR TO BRIEF IFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF THE TERMINALS DUE TO
SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPING ACROSS THE FCST AREA...MTN OBSCURATIONS
ISLAND WIDE AND VARIABLE GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED NEAR THE
SHRA/TSRA. WINDS WILL BE EAST TO SOUTHEAST AT 10 TO 15 KTS FROM
SFC UP TO 2 KFT.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS AND SEAS DECREASE ONLY SLIGHTLY DURING THE NEXT
FIVE DAYS AND SMALL CRAFT WILL NEED TO EXERCISE CAUTION ACROSS
MOST EXPOSED WATERS FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...CURRENTLY LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW IS EAST TO EAST
SOUTHEAST BUT...WITH EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER...SEA BREEZE FORMATION
HAS BEEN WEAK. THIS WILL CAUSE WINDS CLOSER TO 850 MB AND ALSO MORE
SOUTHEASTERLY TO BE THE STEERING FOR THUNDERSTORM FORMATION AND
HENCE THE RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL. CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT
SOME RIVERS IN THE NORTHWEST INCLUDING THE CULEBRINAS AND ALSO
POSSIBLY THE HORMIGUEROS FARTHER SOUTH WILL EXPERIENCE RAPID
RISES. CURRENT INDICATIONS SUGGEST THAT THEY WILL NOT FLOOD...BUT
OTHER SMALL STREAMS AND TRIBUTARIES MAY FLOOD WHERE THUNDERSTORMS
PERSIST FOR MORE THAN TWO OR THREE HOURS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 87 75 87 77 / 70 70 70 60
STT 85 77 86 78 / 60 70 70 70
Member Since: aprilie 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14565

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
315 PM AST FRI MAY 24 2013

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER TROUGH EXPECTED TO EXIT OFF THE EAST COAST OF THE
U.S. LATE TONIGHT AND THEN PERSIST ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC INTO
THE CARIBBEAN THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK. SURGE OF MOISTURE FROM
THE EAST WILL INTERACT WITH THE UPPER TROUGH...CAUSING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.


&&

.DISCUSSION...DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE LIMITED
TODAY BUT THINGS ARE EXPECTED TO CHANGE LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW
AS THE INTERACTION BETWEEN THE UPPER TROUGH AS IT DIGS DOWN IN THE
CARIBBEAN AND THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AT THE SURFACE CAUSES NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. RIGHT NOW
THIS SHORTWAVE IS CAUSING DECENT CONVECTION ACROSS THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS AND WE EXPECT THAT ACTIVITY TO MOVE SLOWLY TO THE WEST AND
AFFECT THE LOCAL ISLANDS. THEREFORE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH WAS ISSUED
UNTIL 6PM SATURDAY WHICH NOW INCLUDES ALL OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS.

THIS SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE AT ITS PEAK
ON SATURDAY BUT WE CANNOT RULE OUT ADDITIONAL SIGNIFICANT SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY AS WELL...IN ADDITION...THE SOILS ARE
SATURATED AND ANY SIGNIFICANT SHOWERS WILL CAUSE RUNOFF AND
THEREFORE FLOODING.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER 2 INCHES FOR
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...SO SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE QUITE
POSSIBLE NEXT WEEK AS WELL...ALTHOUGH NOT AS WIDESPREAD AS WHAT IS
EXPECTED TOMORROW AND SUNDAY.


&&

.AVIATION...CONVECTION SHOULD BUILD OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE USVI AND
NORTHEAST PR TERMINALS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL AND MVFR/IFR CIGS.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN DEVELOP ACROSS WRN AND NW PR SAT AFTERNOON
WITH MVFR/IFR CIGS.


&&

.MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WAS CANCELLED TODAY DUE TO SEAS NOW
BEING UNDER 7 FEET ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS. HOWEVER...SMALL CRAFT
SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION AS SEAS MAY STILL BE UP TO 6 FEET AND WINDS
WILL BE UP TO 20 KNOTS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 76 88 78 87 / 70 70 70 70
STT 77 86 78 87 / 70 70 70 70
Member Since: aprilie 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14565
1761. nigel20
The Cayman Islands National Weather Service

SYNOPSIS:
Light to moderate east to southeasterly winds with isolated showers will continue over the Cayman area during the next 24 hrs.

THE FORECAST:

Today: Partly cloudy skies with a 20% chance of showers. Temperatures will rise to the upper 80’s. Winds will be east to southeast 5 to 10 knots. Seas will be slight with wave heights of 1 to 3 feet.

Tonight: Partly cloudy skies with a 20% chance of showers. Temperatures will fall to the upper 70’s. Winds will be east to northeast 5 to 10 knots. Seas will be slight with wave heights of 1 to 3 feet.

TIDES:

Today: High 8:11 a.m. Low 2:53 p.m. High 9:43 p.m.

Tomorrow: Low 3:47 a.m. High 9:01 a.m. Low 3:37 p.m. High 10:29 p.m.

SUNSET: 6:57 p.m. Today. SUNRISE: 5:47 a.m. Tomorrow.

OUTLOOK: is for moderate east to northeast winds from Saturday morning as a high pressure system builds over the Gulf of Mexico.

FORECASTER: Powery
Member Since: noiembrie 6, 2010 Posts: 11 Comments: 8320
1760. nigel20
Dominica Meteorological Service

Weather Outlook for Dominica and the Lesser Antilles

Issued: 6:00 AM on Friday, May 24, 2013

Lingering moisture and instability will continue to generate cloudiness and scattered showers across parts of the island chain during the next 24 to 48 hours.

Persons in areas prone to landslides and falling rocks are advised to continue to exercise caution.

Moderate sea conditions are expected through the next 72 hours with swells peaking near 8.0 feet. Small craft operators and sea bathers should exercise caution.
Member Since: noiembrie 6, 2010 Posts: 11 Comments: 8320
1759. nigel20
Good morning all!

Tropical Weather Discussion

CARIBBEAN SEA...
NEAR ZONAL NW FLOW ALOFT DOMINATES THE CARIBBEAN. AN AREA OF
DEEP MOISTURE MAXIMUM COVERS THE SW CARIBBEAN AS DEPICTED ON THE
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS
FROM COLOMBIA NEAR 10N75W ALONG 11N78W THEN ACROSS COSTA RICA
NEAR 10N83W GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
S OF 14N W OF 72W TO INLAND OVER COLOMBIA TO NICARAGUA. THE
EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ARE BRINGING IN LOW LEVEL SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY OVER THE E CARIBBEAN
N OF 14N E OF 71W INCLUDING THE LEEWARD ISLANDS TO PUERTO RICO.
W ATLC SURFACE RIDGE WILL MAINTAIN GENTLE TO MODERATE BREEZE
ACROSS MOST OF REGION THROUGH TUE. TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE INTO
THE CARIBBEAN SAT INTO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN BY TUE.

HISPANIOLA...
SKIES HAVE CLEARED OVER HISPANIOLA THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW A BROAD AREA
OF SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE ACROSS THE N CARIBBEAN TO OVER THE
GREATER ANTILLES INCLUDING HISPANIOLA. WEATHER SERVICE IN THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC IS FORECASTING LESS RAINFALL FOR FRIDAY AS
COMPARED TO THE PAST FEW DAYS.

NHC
Member Since: noiembrie 6, 2010 Posts: 11 Comments: 8320
Good morning.Rain is the word to use to describe the forecast for the next few days for PR and adjacent islands in the coming days.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
520 AM AST FRI MAY 24 2013

.SYNOPSIS...AT MID AND UPPER LEVELS...A WEAK SHORT WAVE IS MOVING
AWAY FROM THE AREA TO THE EAST AT UPPER LEVELS WHILE A STRONGER
LONG WAVE IS MOVING TOWARD THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM THE U.S.
MAINLAND AND WILL PUSH RIPPLES THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA UNTIL
TUESDAY IN MOSTLY WESTERLY...CYCLONIC FLOW. HIGH PRESSURE
DEVELOPS OVER THE CARIBBEAN MID WEEK...BUT LOW PRESSURE BEGINS
FORMING IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC NEAR FLORIDA AND GEORGIA ON
WEDNESDAY BRINGING A SHIFT TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW LATER NEXT WEEK.

AT LOWER LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE CONSOLIDATES IN THE NORTHERN
CENTRAL ATLANTIC DURING THE WEEKEND AND MAINTAINS VERY MOIST EAST
SOUTHEAST TRADE WIND FLOW THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. A TROPICAL WAVE
CURRENTLY NEAR 42 WEST WILL PASS MAINLY SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA ON
MONDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY CONTINUED MOIST FLOW.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SHOWERS HAVE INCREASED IN THE CARIBBEAN BETWEEN
SAINT CROIX AND SAINT JOHN WHILE INDIVIDUAL CELLS ARE MOVING
TOWARD THE PUERTO RICO MAINLAND. SMALL SHOWERS HAVE BEEN PASSING
THROUGH EASTERN PUERTO RICO ALL NIGHT. THE MOISTENING TREND WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY TODAY...BRINGING MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WITH SOILS ALREADY SATURATED
AND RIVERS RUNNING SOMEWHAT ABOVE BASE FLOW...EXPECT THAT THERE
COULD BE FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES ONCE THE MAIN SURGE OF MOISTURE
ARRIVES IN PUERTO RICO...THEREFORE WILL ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH
FOR ALL OF PUERTO RICO AROUND 6 AM AST THIS MORNING AND ALLOW IT
TO EXTEND THROUGH SATURDAY. THE LATEST GFS MODEL FROM 24/00Z SHOWS
TODAY AS HAVING THE BEST AND MOST CONTINUOUS MOISTURE COLUMN OF
ANY DAY UNTIL NEXT THURSDAY. THIS DEEP SUPPORT WILL ALLOW
WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY AND LINGER
THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT TONIGHT. MOIST FLOW WILL CONTINUE THIS
SCENARIO THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH THE GFS DID SHOW
SOME WEAKENING OF THE MOISTURE ON SUNDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE THE WETTER THAN NORMAL PERIOD THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK
NEXT WEEK WITH INCREASING MOISTURE AFTER MID WEEK. THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS HOWEVER SHOULD NOT SEE SUFFICIENT RAINFALL AMOUNTS FOR
SIGNIFICANT FLOODING ALTHOUGH SHOWERS WILL BE NUMEROUS.

THE ARRIVAL OF THE TROPICAL WAVE AND THE EXTENDED HIGH HUMIDITY
BEHIND IT SUGGEST THAT NEXT WEEK WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY ABOVE
NORMAL IN TERMS OF RAINFALL FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TAF SITES THROUGH
AT LEAST 24/12Z. HOWEVER...PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE OVER TIST...TISX...TNCM AND TKPK IN SHOWERS. AFTER 24/16Z
MVFR TO BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF THE
TERMINALS DUE TO SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPING ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA...MTN OBSCURATIONS AND VARIABLE GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THE
SHRA/TSRA. SURFACE WINDS WILL CONTINUE MAINLY EAST AT 10 TO 15 KTS.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS AND SEAS ARE BEGINNING TO SUBSIDE SLIGHTLY AND
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES COME DOWN AT 6 AM AST FOR ALL BUT THE OUTER
ATLANTIC WATERS. SEAS REMAIN AT OR BELOW 6 FEET FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 86 76 86 76 / 70 70 70 70
STT 85 76 86 77 / 60 70 70 70
Member Since: aprilie 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14565
1757. nigel20
Cuba Weather Service

2013-05-23 13:00 WEATHER ACTUAL. HAVANA CITY Plenty of sunshine and heavy weather. Light winds from the North-east direction. 2013-05-23 03:00 WEATHER FORECAST.

NATIONWIDE This Thursday will begin with gorgeous blue skies and lots of sun. Nice weather will continue in the afternoon although some outbreaks of rain are possible in inland regions. The daytime temperature will remain around 34 C (93 F) while overnight it will be between 24-27 C (75-81 F) The sea will be mostly calm throughout the country expected
Member Since: noiembrie 6, 2010 Posts: 11 Comments: 8320
1756. nigel20
Trinidad and Tobago Meteorological Services

ISSUED AT: 10:13AM Date:Thursday 23rd of May 2013
Meteorologist: Oscar Lovell

FOR THE PERIOD THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT:

TRINIDAD,TOBAGO AND THE REM.OF THE LESSER ANTILLES Sunny at first but gradually becoming cloudy with showers in varying localities and the early afternoon thundershower favouring Western areas gradually becoming settled by nightfall to give a cool night Gusty winds,street and flash flooding may occur in heavy showers and thundershowers

SEAS: Normal to Moderate WAVES: 2.0 to 2.5mIN OPEN WATERS Near 1.0m IN SHLTD AREAS

Temperature Units:Celsius FORECAST MAX TEMP Piarco: 33 Crown Point: 31 Piarco: 33 Crown Point: 31 Tides ISSUED AT: 05:41PM Date:Tuesday 21st of May 2013 Port of Spain HIGH 1:18am 2:14pm LOW 7:40am 7:38pm Port of Spain HIGH 1:18am 2:14pm LOW 7:40am 7:38pm Scarborough HIGH 12:53am 1:40pm LOW 7:20am 7:25
Member Since: noiembrie 6, 2010 Posts: 11 Comments: 8320
1755. nigel20
Good afternoon all!

Tropical Weather Discussion

CARIBBEAN SEA..

NORTHWEST TO WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT DOMINATES OVER THE CARIBBEAN WITH WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATING MODERATELY DRY AIR OVER A NARROW AREA FROM THE YUCATAN CHANNEL TO 15N70W. OTHERWISE AT THE SURFACE...THE TROPICAL WAVE PREVIOUSLY ANALYZED IN THE SW CARIBBEAN HAS BECOME TO DIFFICULT TO DISCERN ON SATELLITE CARIBBEAN HAS BECOME TO DIFFICULT TO DISCERN ON SATELLITE IMAGERY AND THE ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH IT HAS MERGED INTO THE SEMI-PERMANENT LOW-LEVEL COLOMBIAN GYRE. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS CONTINUE OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN HOWEVER S OF 14N BETWEEN 75W-81W...AND S OF 11N BETWEEN 81W-84W. FARTHER EAST... LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN NEAR THE BASE OF A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM THE FAR WESTERN PORTION OF THE SW NORTH ATLC GENERATING WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS EAST OF A LINE FROM SOUTHWESTERN HISPANIOLA NEAR 18N74W TO THE ABC ISLANDS NEAR 12N68W. E-SE TRADES ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY WITH WINDS SHIFTING MORE NORTHEASTERLY OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN AS A FRONTAL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE SW NORTH ATLC REGION.

HISPANIOLA...

CURRENTLY NORTHWEST WINDS ALOFT ARE OVER THE ISLAND WITH SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUING TO ADVECT ACROSS THE ISLAND INCREASING TO THE EAST OVER PUERTO RICO AND THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING EAST OF 72W AND THIS CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AND INCREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGHOUT THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS WITH PEAK DAYTIME HEATING AND INSTABILITY IN PLACE. OVERALL SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY AS A FRONTAL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE SW NORTH ATLC AND BY SATURDAY SURFACE TROUGHING WILL LIE ACROSS THE ISLAND PROVIDING FOR INCREASED PRECIPITATION CHANCES OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY MONDAY.

NHC
Member Since: noiembrie 6, 2010 Posts: 11 Comments: 8320
Good morning. Rain is the word to use to describe the forecast for the next few days.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
516 AM AST THU MAY 23 2013

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...A BRANCH OF THE SUB TROPICAL JET SPLITS OFF
OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND SENDS A RIPPLED FLOW OVER THE LOCAL
AREA THROUGH SATURDAY. ALSO ON SATURDAY A LOW MOVES OFFSHORE FROM
THE EASTERN UNITED STATES AND KEEPS FLOW CYCLONIC OVER THE LOCAL
AREA THROUGH TUESDAY. ANOTHER LOW FORMS EAST OF GEORGIA IN THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC ON WEDNESDAY AND DEEPENS CAUSING FLOW TO BECOME
MORE SOUTHWESTERLY OVER THE AREA.

AT MID LEVELS...LIGHT BUT MOSTLY SOUTHERLY FLOW PREVAILS NOW
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND CARRIES AMPLE MOISTURE. FLOW BECOMES LIGHT
AND VARIABLE MONDAY AND TUESDAY AND THEN GAINS COPIOUS MOISTURE
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

AT LOWER LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL WESTERN ATLANTIC
FADES INTO A STRONGER HIGH IN THE NORTH CENTRAL ATLANTIC BY
SATURDAY WHILE LOW PRESSURE MAINTAINS A PRESENCE IN THE SOUTHERN
CARIBBEAN. THE RESULTING GRADIENT MAINTAINS MODERATE TO FRESH
TRADE WINDS OVER THE AREA. MOISTURE CONTINUES TO BE ADVECTED FROM
THE EAST. TROUGHING DEVELOPS OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN BEGINNING
ON MONDAY...DRIFTS NORTH AND WEST THROUGH THE WEEK AND PULLS EVEN
MORE MOISTURE OVER THE LOCAL AREA IN SOUTHEAST FLOW. A WEAK LOW
DEVELOPS NORTHEAST OF THE BAHAMAS EARLY NEXT MONTH AND CONNECTS
WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL AMERICA TO MAINTAIN THE MOIST FLOW.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SHOWERS GRADUALLY FADED OVER THE CARIBBEAN WATERS TO
THE SOUTH...BUT CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SHOWERS SOUTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA. THE MIMIC PRODUCT SHOWS A TIGHT GRADIENT BETWEEN THE
MOISTURE SLIPPING SOUTHWEST AND DRIER AIR COMING FROM THE
NORTHEAST. THE PRECIPITABLE WATER OVER SAINT CROIX HAS FALLEN TO
BELOW 1.5 INCHES AND SOUNDERS REVEAL THAT MOISTURE AMOUNTS OVER
SAN JUAN WERE ALSO FALLING. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CLOUDINESS
FOLLOWING THE MOISTURE TO THE SOUTHWEST AND CLEARING IS TAKING
PLACE OVER THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO. THE GFS ALSO
SHOWS DRYING BETWEEN 900 AND 675 MB TILL ABOUT 24/06Z. ALTHOUGH
THIS WILL INITIALLY FAVOR IMPROVED WEATHER...STRONG HEATING FROM
THE SUN FROM NEARLY PERPENDICULAR NOON TIME SOLAR ANGLES WILL
CAUSE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO ERUPT OVER THE AREA JUST INLAND
FROM THE NORTH COAST OVER THE NORTHEAST PORTION OF PUERTO RICO AND
SHORTLY THEREAFTER OVER THE WESTERN INTERIOR. SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE HEAVY ENOUGH TO CAUSE URBAN AND SMALL
STREAM FLOODING IN AREAS ALREADY SATURATED FROM THE PREVIOUS TWO
DAYS OF HEAVY RAINS. ALTHOUGH MODELS SHOW A NEARLY SATURATED
ATMOSPHERE FROM 600-300 MB...LIMITED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THERE
MAY BE LESS MID-LEVEL CLOUDINESS THAN WOULD BE EXPECTED FROM THIS PROFILE.

MOISTURE RETURNS ON THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AND ANOTHER ROUND OF
HEAVY RAINS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED EACH DAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
THIS TIME SUFFICIENT MOISTURE MAY BE PRESENT TO CAUSE FLASH
FLOODING OVER THE WEEKEND AND A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MAY BE NEEDED.
ALTHOUGH BRIEF PERIODS OF SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR DO OCCUR OVER THE
NEXT WEEK...LOW PRESSURE SETTING UP IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC EAST
OF GEORGIA AT UPPER LEVELS WEDNESDAY WILL INDUCE A TROUGH AT THE
SURFACE IN THE WINDWARD PASSAGE THAT WILL MAKE LOW LEVEL FLOW
SOUTHEASTERLY AGAIN...TAPPING THE BETTER STREAMS OF MOISTURE OUT OF
THE TROPICS AND GENERATING CONTINUED SCENARIOS FOR HEAVY RAINS
OVER THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...
SCT-BKN SKIES ACROSS THE FLYING AREA ARE EXPECTED FOR THE FCST
PERIOD. AFTER 23/17Z MVFR TO BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS TJMZ AND TJBQ DUE TO SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPING ACROSS THE
WESTERN INTERIOR OF PR WITH MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS...VCTS ARE
EXPECTED FOR TJSJ. WINDS MAINLY FROM THE EAST BETWEEN 10-25 KT UP
TO 5 KFT.

&&

.MARINE...WITH MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS ACROSS ATLANTIC AND
CARIBBEAN WATERS...SEAS OF 7 TO 8 FEET HAVE BEEN ABLE TO DEVELOP IN
THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC WATERS AND THE ANEGADA PASSAGE. THESE WILL
SUBSIDE SOMEWHAT BY SATURDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE NOT
ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE END OF THE MONTH.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 85 76 85 76 / 40 40 50 60
STT 87 77 86 78 / 20 40 50 50
Member Since: aprilie 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14565
1753. nigel20
Meteorological Department Curaçao


Weather Forecast for Bonaire and Curacao valid until Thursday morning 06:00 l.t., May 23, 2013.

Issued: Wednesday May 22, 2013, 06:00 l.t. (10:00 UTC).

Weather:
Today through tonight: Partly cloudy, mainly during the morning hours mostly cloudy with a chance of a few local showers.


Forecast high will be 31ºC and the low will be 25ºC.

Sunrise will occur at 06:10 and sunset at 18:54.

Winds:
Today through tonight: Easterly and gentle to moderate; force 3 to 4 (12 to 30 km/hr, 7 to 17 knots). Mainly during the day, occasionally fresh to strong in gusts; force 5 to 6 (31 to 50 km/hr, 17 to 27 knots).


Synopsis: A tropical wave continues to move across the Caribbean today and cloudiness related to this wave also spreads over the local area producing showers at times over parts of the islands.

Sea conditions: Moderate with seas between 1 and locally 2 meters (3 to 7
feet).
Special features: None.

Outlook until Friday evening: Generally partly cloudy with a possible morning shower activity.

Forecaster: H. M. Lauffer.
Member Since: noiembrie 6, 2010 Posts: 11 Comments: 8320
1752. nigel20
Dominica Meteorological Service

Weather Outlook for Dominica and the Lesser Antilles

Issued: 6:00 AM on Wednesday, May 22, 2013

Moisture and instability associated with a westward moving tropical wave is generating cloudiness, showers and isolated thunderstorms across the island chain. This activity is expected to continue during the next 24 hours.

Persons in areas prone to flash flooding, landslides and falling rocks are advised to exercise caution.

Moderate sea conditions are expected through the next 24 hours with swells peaking near 8.0 feet.
Member Since: noiembrie 6, 2010 Posts: 11 Comments: 8320
1751. nigel20
Good morning all!

Tropical Weather Discussion

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS ALONG THE N PORTION OF SOUTH AMERICA
GIVING THE SW CARIBBEAN SW FLOW ALOFT. THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
GULF OF MEXICO DIPS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN GIVING THE AREA NW
FLOW ALOFT WHILE THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA IS UNDER NEAR ZONAL
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM COLOMBIA
NEAR 10N75W THROUGH A 1009 MB LOW NEAR 11N80W TO ACROSS COSTA
RICA NEAR 11N83W ARE GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 12N BETWEEN W OF 80W AND WITHIN 60
NM ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE OVER THE N/CENTRAL CARIBBEAN N
OF 18N BETWEEN 75W-80W. THE E CARIBBEAN IS COVERED IN THE
TROPICAL WAVE SECTION ABOVE. W ATLC SURFACE RIDGE WILL MAINTAIN
MODERATE TO FRESH SE TRADE WINDS WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS IN THE
GULF OF HONDURAS THROUGH SUN.

HISPANIOLA...
AN UPPER RIDGE BEGINS JUST N OF THE ISLAND EXTENDING NW OVER THE
W ATLC. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY INDICATES MOISTURE IN
PLACE ACROSS THE ISLAND SO SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
OVER THE INTERIOR SECTIONS OF THE ISLAND. THE UPPER RIDGE N OF
THE ISLAND IS MOVING E AS THE TROPICAL WAVE CONTINUES TO TRACK
W. THIS COULD BRING RAIN AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS TO
HISPANIOLA OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

NHC
Member Since: noiembrie 6, 2010 Posts: 11 Comments: 8320
Good morning. Rain is the word that will be prevalent in the coming days in the NE Caribbean islands. And it looks like it may be even more for next week so stay tuned.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
511 AM AST WED MAY 22 2013

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...THE SOUTHERN BRANCH OF THE SUB TROPICAL JET
STREAM MOVES OVER AND SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA WITH AN UPSTREAM
TROUGH PASSING THROUGH ON FRIDAY MORNING. ANOTHER TROUGH MOVES
THROUGH ON SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE JET PASSING TO THE NORTH.
STRONGER LOW PRESSURE DIGS SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
AND ACROSS FLORIDA AND INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO LATE NEXT WEEK.

AT MID LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE CARIBBEAN AND THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN NORTHEAST OF THE LOCAL AREA AND THE LESSER
ANTILLES. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTH OUT OF THE WESTERN TROPICAL
ATLANTIC OVER THE WEEKEND AND SHIFTS SLOWLY EAST THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEK.

AT LOWER LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
WITH LOW PRESSURE IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN. THIS HIGH DRIFTS
EAST DURING THE WEEK AND IS JOINED ON THURSDAY BY ANOTHER HIGH
LEAVING THE EASTERN UNITED STATES ON MONDAY. ALTHOUGH FLOW TURNS
DECIDEDLY MORE SOUTHEAST LATE NEXT WEEK THIS PATTERN KEEPS
MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS OVER THE AREA THROUGH OUT THE NEXT 7
DAYS...WITH A FAIRLY CONTINUOUS INFLUX OF TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM
THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST THROUGHOUT THE NEXT 10 DAYS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A BAND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS DEVELOPED DURING
THE NIGHT AND WAS RESPONSIBLE FOR AS MUCH AS 1 TO 1.5 INCHES OF
RAIN OVER THE STRIP OF COAST FROM RIO GRANDE TO VEGA BAJA. OTHER
RAIN ALSO FELL ACROSS SOUTHEAST PUERTO RICO OVERNIGHT WITH SHOWERS
IN CULEBRA...SAINT THOMAS AND SAINT JOHN. A TROPICAL WAVE MOVED
THROUGH THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO YESTERDAY BUT LEFT AN
ARC OF MOISTURE ACROSS THE SAME THAT EXTENDED OVER 600 MILES EAST
SOUTHEAST INTO THE TROPICAL WESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS MOISTURE WILL
CONTINUE TO FUEL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE ISLANDS AND
ACROSS THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS TODAY...ALTHOUGH COVERAGE IS
EXPECTED TO BE SLIGHTLY LESS...URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING
SHOULD BE EXPECTED OVER MUCH OF THE ISLANDS AND SPECIFICALLY OVER
THE WESTERN INTERIOR AND DOWNSTREAM FROM THE LUQUILLO MOUNTAINS. THERE
IS A SHARP GRADIENT JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA THAT WILL
APPROACH THE ISLANDS TONIGHT AND BRING SOME RELIEF DURING THE
EARLY PART OF THE NIGHT...BUT AN EMBEDDED PATCH OF MOISTURE WILL MOVE
THROUGH ON THURSDAY AS THE ENTIRE AREA TURNS WETTER THURSDAY
EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY. SHOWERS AND OCCASIONAL THUNDERSTORMS WILL
INCREASE DURING THIS PERIOD AS WILL THE MAXIMUM RIVER LEVELS EACH DAY.
THE GFS ALSO SUGGESTS THAT MORE MOISTURE WILL BE FOUND IN THE
COMING DAYS BUT IT CONTINUES TO WITHHOLD THE WETTEST WEATHER UNTIL
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. AT THAT TIME LOWER LEVEL WINDS TURN
SOUTHEAST AND MOISTURE INCREASES CONSIDERABLY AS ANOTHER TROPICAL
WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR AT MOST TAF SITES EXCEPT IN PASSING SHRA OVER COASTAL
WATERS BETWEEN EASTERN PR AND THE USVI TIL 22/14Z. SCT-BKN BETWEEN
FL020-FL120 DURING THE MORNING HOURS WITH MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS
ACROSS THE EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN RANGE OF PR.
MAINLY EAST WINDS 10-25 KT FROM SFC UP 4 KFT. GUSTY WINDS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS ALL TAF SITES AFTER 12Z AND MVFR TO BRIEF IFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS TJMZ AND TJBQ THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO
SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPING ACROSS THE WESTERN INTERIOR OF PR.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS
AS WINDS INCREASE. THE THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND THE EASTERN
PASSAGES WILL HAVE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS RAMPING UP
BETWEEN 9 AM AND 3 PM AST AND CONTINUING THROUGH MUCH OF THE
WEEK. ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL BE JUST BELOW 22 KNOTS SEAS ARE EXPECTED
TO REACH 7 TO 8 FEET TODAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...AS THE MODELS CONTINUE WET AND RAINS CONTINUE TO KEEP
SOILS ALONG THE NORTH...NORTHEAST AND SOUTHEAST COASTS NEAR
SATURATION...THE ADDITIONAL PERSISTENT MOISTURE EXPECTED NEXT
WEEK COULD CREATE MORE SERIOUS FLOODING PROBLEMS GENERALLY NORTH
OF THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL IF THE GFS SOLUTIONS HOLD. THIS
SITUATION WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED BY FORECASTERS AND
REVIEWED BY OUR HYDROLOGIST WITH FURTHER ACTIONS TO BE CONSIDERED
AND COORDINATED FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 84 77 87 77 / 50 30 40 30
STT 86 77 87 78 / 50 30 30 30
Member Since: aprilie 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14565
1749. nigel20
Met Service of Jamaica

May 21, 2013 at 5:00 a.m.

LOCAL WEATHER FORECAST

SIGNIFICANT FEATURE… High Pressure Ridge north of the Caribbean.

Comment
The Ridge should be present until tomorrow but as of Thursday, a Trough
is expected to be across Jamaica.

24-HOUR FORECAST
This Morning… Partly cloudy.
This Afternoon… Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms mainly across central and western parishes.
Tonight… Becoming fair.

Maximum temperatures expected today:
Kingston... 32 degrees Celsius
Montego Bay... 33 degrees Celsius

3-DAY FORECAST (starting tomorrow)
Wed-Fri… Isolated morning showers across eastern parishes. Widely scattered showers and thunderstorms mainly across central and western parishes during the afternoon.

Regionally… Scattered showers and thunderstorms are affecting a large area over the waters north of Panama.
kjg
Member Since: noiembrie 6, 2010 Posts: 11 Comments: 8320
1748. nigel20
Trinidad and Tobago Meteorological Services



ISSUED AT: 10:22AM
Date:Tuesday 21st of May 2013

Meteorologist: Akil Nancoo

FOR THE PERIOD THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT:
TRINIDAD,TOBAGO AND THE Southern Windwards:
Mostly windy,hazy but sunny day will be
interrupted by a few light to moderate showers.
The evening and night would be mostly cool and
clear apart from the chance of a few brief light
to moderate showers.

THE REMAINDER OF THE LESSER ANTILLES
Initially sunny conditions will become
increasingly cloudy with light to moderate
showers by mid-morning.A few showers may become
heavy and thundery. A few lingering showers would
persist into the evening and night.




SEAS: Normal
WAVES: Up to 2.0mIN OPEN WATERS
Less than 1.0m IN SHLTD AREAS

Temperature Units:Celsius



FORECAST MAX TEMP.
Piarco: 33 Crown Point: 31
Tides ISSUED AT: 05:26PM
Date:Monday 20th of May 2013

Port of Spain HIGH 12:31am 1:14pm LOW 6:46am 6:46pm
Scarborough HIGH 12:10am 12:50pm LOW 6:31am 6:40pm
Member Since: noiembrie 6, 2010 Posts: 11 Comments: 8320
1747. nigel20
Good afternoon all!

Tropical Weather Discussion

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS ALONG THE N COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA
GIVING THE CARIBBEAN S OF 17N SW FLOW ALOFT. THE AREA N OF 17N
IS UNDER NEAR ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THE UPPER FLOW IS
DRAWING TROPICAL MOISTURE ALOFT OVER THE S CARIBBEAN AND COUPLED
WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM COLOMBIA NEAR 10N75W
ALONG 11N80W TO ACROSS COSTA RICA NEAR 10N84W ARE GENERATING
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS S OF 12N BETWEEN 74W-84W.
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE
OVER PORTIONS OF E CUBA AND FROM 16N-20N BETWEEN 74W-80W. THE E
CARIBBEAN IS COVERED IN THE TROPICAL WAVE SECTION ABOVE. SURFACE
RIDGE OVER THE W ATLC WILL MAINTAIN MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE
WINDS OVER THE REGION WITH STRONGER WINDS AT TIMES OFF THE COAST
OF COLOMBIA AND IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS THROUGH MID WEEK.

HISPANIOLA...
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 60 NM ALONG
THE S COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BETWEEN BAHIA DE YUMA TO
BAHIA DE OCOA. MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES A SIMILAR PATTERN WILL
PERSIST TODAY WITH THE MOST LIKELY PRECIPITATION TO BE DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS ACROSS THE ISLAND WHEN
PEAK DAYTIME HEATING AND INSTABILITY OCCUR. ANY AREAS THAT
RECEIVE MEASURABLE AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL WILL LIKELY BE PRONE TO
LOCALIZED FLOODING. MOISTURE FROM A TROPICAL WAVE MAY INCREASE
ACTIVITY OVER THE ISLAND TONIGHT INTO WED.

NHC
Member Since: noiembrie 6, 2010 Posts: 11 Comments: 8320
Good morning. A few scattered showers will move thru PR today as a weak tropical wave moves south of the island.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
533 AM AST TUE MAY 21 2013

.SYNOPSIS...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE NORTH NORTHEAST OF THE AREA IS
EXPECTED TO STRENGTHENS...MAINTAINING A MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WIND
FLOW OVER THE REGION UNTIL THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. A WEAK TROPICAL
WAVE WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE REGION ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN WATERS
TODAY AND TONIGHT. SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL PERTURBATIONS WILL MOVE
OCCASIONALLY ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS
INCREASING THE CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS ACROSS THE FA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...LATEST SATELLITE IMAGES AND DOPPLER RADAR OBSERVATIONS
OVERNIGHT AND EARLY THIS MORNING...DEPICTED SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS MOVING WESTWARD ACROSS VIEQUES...CULEBRA...THE
USVI AND ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN WATERS. FEW OF THESE SHOWERS ALSO
AFFECTED THE EASTERN AND NORTHERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO...BUT
THE TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS SO FAR WERE GENERALLY MINIMAL. THIS
ACTIVITY WAS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE MOVING WESTWARD
ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN WATERS...SOUTH OF THE REGION. THIS FEATURE
IS EXPECTED TO COMBINE THIS AFTERNOON WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND
LOCAL EFFECT TOP PRODUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY ACROSS
WESTERN AND INTERIOR SECTIONS OF THE ISLAND.

THE STRENGTHENING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE...NORTH NORTHEAST OF THE
REGION...IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN AN EASTERLY TRADE WIND FLOW
ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK. THIS FEATURE WILL
TIGHTENS THE LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT...INCREASING THE WINDS FLOW
ACROSS THE REGION. AS THIS HAPPENS...EMBEDDED MOISTURE IN THE
EASTERLY TRADES WILL CROSS THE REGION OCCASIONALLY FOR THE NEXT
FEW DAY. THIS MOISTURE IN COMBINATION WITH SOME UPPER LEVEL
PERTURBATIONS APPROACHING TO THE REGION...WILL PROVIDE THE
NECESSARY DYNAMIC TO INDUCE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVER EASTERN PUERTO RICO...VIEQUES...CULEBRA AND THE USVI
OVERNIGHT AND EARLY IN THE MORNINGS AND ACROSS WESTERN AND
INTERIOR SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO EACH AFTERNOON. PWAT VALUES WILL
PREVAIL CLOSE TO 1.70 INCHES TODAY AND TONIGHT...BUT ARE EXPECTED
TO INCREASE STEADILY TO AROUND 2.00 INCHES LATE WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY AS A SURGE OF MOISTURE APPROACHES TO THE REGION. ANOTHER
EASTERLY WAVE...ALONG 40 WEST THIS MORNING...IS EXPECTED TO REACH
THE REGION BY THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. COMPUTER MODELS GUIDANCE ARE
CONSISTENT IN A WET PERIOD STARTING SATURDAY AND CONTINUING
THROUGHOUT EARLY NEXT WEEK. STAY TUNED.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR AT ALL TAF SITES EXCEPT IN PASSING SHRA/ISOLD TSRA OVR
COASTAL WATERS EN ROUTE BTW ERN PR AND THE USVI TIL 21/14Z. SCT-BKN
CLD LYRS BTW FL020-FL120 DURNG THE MORNING HOURS WITH BRIEF MTN TOP
OBSC ACROSS THE ERN SECTIONS OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN RANGE OF PR.
L/LVL WIND FM 5-20 KT BLO FL150 BCMG W AND INCR W/HT ABV.

&&

.MARINE...AS WINDS INCREASE MARINE CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO
DETERIORATE STARTING TONIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY. FOR TODAY
WIND UP TO 21 KNOTS AND SEAS UP TO 6 FEET ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 86 77 84 77 / 40 30 40 30
STT 87 77 87 77 / 30 40 40 50
Member Since: aprilie 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14565
1745. nigel20
Belize National Meteorological Service

Date:
MONDAY 20TH MAY 2013

Time:
12:00 PM

General Situation:
MOSTLY WARM AND DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS THE COUNTRY.

24hr Forecast:
SUNNY WITH CLOUDY SPELLS THIS AFTERNOON AND TOMORROW MORNING AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES TONIGHT. SHOWERS WILL BE ISOLATED.

Winds:
EAST - SOUTHEAST 10-20 KNOTS WITH OCCASIONAL HIGHER GUSTS.

Sea State:
MODERATE BECOMING ROUGH AT TIMES.*SMALL CRAFT CAUTION*

Outlook:
SIMILAR WEATHER OCCURS BETWEEN TUES AFTERNOON AND WED MIDDAY.
Member Since: noiembrie 6, 2010 Posts: 11 Comments: 8320
1744. nigel20
Barbados Weather Service

Lesser Antilles Forecast

This Afternoon's Forecast Valid From 1600Z Monday 2013-05-20 To 2200Z Monday 2013-05-20

Synopsis: A tropical wave is affecting the southern half region.

Wx : Windwards: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers and possible isolated thunderstorms.
Elsewhere: Fair to partly cloudy and breezy with only a few brief showers.

Winds: ENE to ESE AT 15 - 40 km/h.

Seas: Moderate in open water, swells up to 2.0 metres.

Tonight's Forecast Valid From 2200Z Monday 2013-05-20 To 1000Z Tuesday 2013-05-21

Synopsis: A tropical wave continues to affecting the southern half region.

Wx : Windwards: Partly cloudy to occasionally cloudy and breezy with some scattered showers.
Elsewhere: Fair to partly cloudy and breezy with only a few brief showers.

Winds: ENE to ESE AT 15 - 40 km/h.

Seas: Moderate in open water swells 2.0-2.5m. Small craft operators and sea bathers should exercise caution.
Member Since: noiembrie 6, 2010 Posts: 11 Comments: 8320
1743. nigel20
Good morning all!

Tropical Weather Discussion

CARIBBEAN SEA...
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IS NOTED ON WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY W OF 72W ON THE NORTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF AN
ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC
REGION NEAR 14N93W. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES UNDER THIS UPPER LEVEL REGIME WITH E-SE TRADE WINDS
PERSISTING IN THE RANGE OF 10 TO 20 KT WITH POTENTIALLY HIGHER
WIND SPEEDS IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. THE
ONLY EXCEPTION IS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ACROSS THE SW
CARIBBEAN S OF 12N AS THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ANALYZED ALONG 09N
ACROSS PANAMA AND COSTA RICA. EAST OF 72W...SOUTHWESTERLY MIDDLE
TO UPPER LEVEL WINDS DOMINATE AND CONTINUE TO PROVIDE AN OVERALL
DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT THAT SUPPORTS THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED
WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 61W IMPACTING THE WINDWARD ISLANDS.
OTHERWISE...EASTERLY TRADES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
MUCH OF THE WEEK WITH LITTLE CHANGE ON THE SYNOPTIC SCALE.

HISPANIOLA...
CURRENTLY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS OVER HISPANIOLA WITH WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATING A MODERATELY DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE AND
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE INFLUENCE OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVING ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA REMAINING MOSTLY N OF 20N.
THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN REMAINS THE SAME AS THE PAST FEW
DAYS WITH E-SE TRADES PREVAILING AND THE HIGHEST PRECIPITATION
CHANCES OCCURING IN THE AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE EVENING HOURS
WITH PEAK DAYTIME HEATING AND INSTABILITY. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
BEGINNING TO INITIATE OVER INLAND AREAS OF THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC AND A FEW ISOLATE SHOWERS ARE NOTED OVER THE ADJACENT
COASTAL WATERS N OF 17N BETWEEN 69W-72W. AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED
IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA SECTION...LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS SYNOPTICALLY...RESULTING IN HIGHER PROBABILITY
OF PRECIPITATION DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

NHC
Member Since: noiembrie 6, 2010 Posts: 11 Comments: 8320
Good morning.

It will be a variable week weatherwise in PR and adjacent islands but it becomes very wet by the ladder part of the week going to the long Memorial day weekend.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
549 AM AST MON MAY 20 2013

.SYNOPSIS...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHENS NORTH
NORTHEAST OF THE LOCAL AREA FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. LOW LEVEL
PERTURBATIONS IN THE EASTERLY TRADES WILL MOVE OCCASIONALLY ACROSS
THE LOCAL ISLANDS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...LATEST SATELLITE IMAGES AND TERMINAL DOPPLER RADAR
OBSERVATIONS OVERNIGHT AND EARLY THIS MORNING...DEPICTED SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MOVING WESTWARD MAINLY ACROSS THE
ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS. THE STRENGTHENING SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE...JUST NORTH OF THE AREA THIS MORNING...WILL MAINTAIN AN
EASTERLY TRADE WIND FLOW ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE REST OF THE WORK
WEEK. THIS FEATURE WILL ALSO TIGHTENS THE LOCAL PRESSURE
GRADIENT...INCREASING THE WINDS FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. AS THIS
HAPPENS...SOME LOW LEVEL PERTURBATIONS WILL CROSS THE REGION
OCCASIONALLY PRODUCING INTERMITTENT PERIODS OF CLOUDINESS AND
SHOWERS ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS. PWAT VALUES WILL PREVAIL CLOSE TO
1.60 INCHES TODAY AND TUESDAY...BUT WILL INCREASE STEADILY TO AROUND
2.00 INCHES LATE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS A SURGE OF MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW LEVEL PERTURBATION APPROACHES TO THE REGION
FROM THE EAST. A WEAK EASTERLY WAVE...EMERGING TO THE AFRICAN COASTS
TODAY...IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE REGION BY THE UPCOMING WEEKEND OR
EARLY NEXT WEEK. COMPUTER MODELS GUIDANCE ARE CONSISTENT IN A WET
PERIOD STARTING SATURDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGHOUT THE EARLY PART OF
THE UPCOMING WEEK. STAY TUNED.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT ALL TAF
SITES FOR THE NEXT 24 HRS. HOWEVER...AFT 20/16Z SHOWERS AND A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN OVER THE
CORDILLERA CENTRAL AND MAY CAUSE TEMPO MVFR CONDS AT TJMZ BTW
20/16Z AND 20/22Z. EASTERLY WINDS AT 10 KNOTS OR LESS EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS OF 5 FEET OR LESS AND WINDS OF OF 20 KNOTS OR LESS.
SMALL CRAFT ARE URGED TO EXERCISE CAUTIONS ACROSS ALL OF THE LOCAL
COASTAL WATERS.

&&

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 86 77 86 76 / 20 20 40 30
STT 87 77 87 78 / 20 30 30 30
Member Since: aprilie 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14565
1741. nigel20
Dominica Meteorological Service

Weather Outlook for Dominica and the Lesser Antille

Issued: 6:00 PM on Sunday, May 19, 2013

Moisture associated with an approaching tropical wave is expected to spread across the Windward Islands during the next 24 hours. This is expected to result in an increase in cloudiness and shower activity across the Windward Islands during the next 24 hours. Moderate sea conditions are expected through the next 72 hours with swells peaking near 7.0 feet.

Member Since: noiembrie 6, 2010 Posts: 11 Comments: 8320

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APRSWXNET Kingston JM
Kingston,
Elevation: 731 ft
Temperatura: 80.0 °F
Punctul de rouă: 73.0 °F
Umiditatea: 79%
Vânt: Liniştit
Rafale de vânt: -
Updated: 08:04 AM EST on octombrie 24, 2014

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